Forecasting Scrub Typhus Cases in Eight High-Risk Counties in China: Evaluation of Time-Series Model Performance

Scrub typhus (ST) is expanding its geographical distribution in China and in many regions worldwide raising significant public health concerns. Accurate ST time-series modeling including uncovering the role of environmental determinants is of great importance to guide disease control purposes. This study evaluated the performance of three competing time-series modeling approaches at forecasting ST cases during 2012–2020 in eight high-risk counties in China. We evaluated the performance of a seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, a SARIMA model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX), and the long–short term memory (LSTM) model to depict temporal variations in ST cases. In our investigation, we considered eight environmental variables known to be associated with ST landscape epidemiology, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, sunshine duration, relative humidity, wind speed, and multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation index (MEI). The first 8-year data and the last year data were used to fit the models and forecast ST cases, respectively. Our results showed that the inclusion of exogenous variables in the SARIMAX model generally outperformed the SARIMA model. Our results also indicate that the role of exogenous variables with various temporal lags varies between counties, suggesting that ST cases are temporally non-stationary. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the approach to forecast ST cases needed to take into consideration local conditions in that time-series model performance differed between high-risk areas under investigation. Furthermore, the introduction of time-series models, especially LSTM, has enriched the ability of local public health authorities in ST high-risk areas to anticipate and respond to ST outbreaks, such as setting up an early warning system and forecasting ST precisely.

Number of Seclusions in the Netherlands Higher in the 7 Years Since the End of a Nationwide Seclusion-Reduction Program

Introduction: Between 2006 and 2012 the Dutch government funded a nationwide program for reducing the use of seclusion. Although an initial first trend study showed that the reported number of seclusions declined during the program, the objective of a 10% annual decrease was not met. We wished to establish whether the decline had continued after funding ended in 2012.Method: Using quasi Poisson time series modeling, we retrospectively analyzed the nationally reported numbers of seclusion and involuntary medication between 1998 and 2019, i.e., before, during and after the end of the nationwide program, with and without correction for the number of involuntary admissions.Results: With and without correction for the number of involuntary admissions, there were more seclusions in the seven years after the nationwide program than during the nationwide program. Although the reported number of involuntary medications also increased, the rate of increase was slower after the end of the nationwide program than before.Conclusions: Rather than continuing to decrease after the end of the nationwide program, the number of seclusions rose. This may mean that interventions intended to reduce the use of seclusion within this program are not properly sustained in daily clinical care without an ongoing national program.

Task-independent Recognition of Communication Skills in Group Interaction Using Time-series Modeling

Case studies of group discussions are considered an effective way to assess communication skills (CS). This method can help researchers evaluate participants’ engagement with each other in a specific realistic context. In this article, multimodal analysis was performed to estimate CS indices using a three-task-type group discussion dataset, the MATRICS corpus. The current research investigated the effectiveness of engaging both static and time-series modeling, especially in task-independent settings. This investigation aimed to understand three main points: first, the effectiveness of time-series modeling compared to nonsequential modeling; second, multimodal analysis in a task-independent setting; and third, important differences to consider when dealing with task-dependent and task-independent settings, specifically in terms of modalities and prediction models. Several modalities were extracted (e.g., acoustics, speaking turns, linguistic-related movement, dialog tags, head motions, and face feature sets) for inferring the CS indices as a regression task. Three predictive models, including support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and an enhanced time-series model (an LSTM model with a combination of static and time-series features), were taken into account in this study. Our evaluation was conducted by using the R 2 score in a cross-validation scheme. The experimental results suggested that time-series modeling can improve the performance of multimodal analysis significantly in the task-dependent setting (with the best R 2 = 0.797 for the total CS index), with word2vec being the most prominent feature. Unfortunately, highly context-related features did not fit well with the task-independent setting. Thus, we propose an enhanced LSTM model for dealing with task-independent settings, and we successfully obtained better performance with the enhanced model than with the conventional SVR and LSTM models (the best R 2 = 0.602 for the total CS index). In other words, our study shows that a particular time-series modeling can outperform traditional nonsequential modeling for automatically estimating the CS indices of a participant in a group discussion with regard to task dependency.

Modeling the Context of the Problem Domain of Time Series with Type-2 Fuzzy Sets

Data analysis in the context of the features of the problem domain and the dynamics of processes are significant in various industries. Uncertainty modeling based on fuzzy logic allows building approximators for solving a large class of problems. In some cases, type-2 fuzzy sets in the model are used. The article describes constructing fuzzy time series models of the analyzed processes within the context of the problem domain. An algorithm for fuzzy modeling of the time series was developed. A new time series forecasting scheme is proposed. An illustrative example of the time series modeling is presented. The benefits of contextual modeling are demonstrated.

Score-Driven Time Series Models

The construction of score-driven filters for nonlinear time series models is described, and they are shown to apply over a wide range of disciplines. Their theoretical and practical advantages over other methods are highlighted. Topics covered include robust time series modeling, conditional heteroscedasticity, count data, dynamic correlation and association, censoring, circular data, and switching regimes. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 9 is March 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.