scholarly journals CONSTRUCTION OF TREND COMPONENT OF ADDITIVE LONG-TERM FORECASTING MODEL OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION VOLUME OF THE WHOLESALE ELECTRIC ENERGY AND POWER MARKET OF RUSSIA, BY THE EXAMPLE OF UNITED POWER SYSTEM OF THE URAL

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veniamin Mokhov ◽  
Tatyana Demyanenko
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Power Market ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Trend Component ◽  
United Power System ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

scholarly journals Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. First
Author(s):  
Viết Cường Võ ◽  
Phuong Hoang Nguyen ◽  
Luan Le Duy Nguyen ◽  
Van-Hung Pham
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Base Scenario ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
High Scenario

An accurate forecasting for long-term electricity demand makes a major role in the planning of the power system in any country. Vietnam is one of the most economically developing countries in the world, and its electricity demand has been increased dramatically high of about 15%/y for the last three decades. Contribution of industry and construction sectors in GDP has been increasing year by year, and are currently holding the leading position of largest consumers with more than 50% sharing in national electricity consumption proportion. How to estimate the electricity consumption of these sectors correctly makes a crucial contribution to the planning of the power system. This paper applies an econometric model with Cobb Douglas production function - a top-down method to forecast electricity demand of the industry and construction sectors in Vietnam to 2030. Four variables used are the value of the sectors in GDP, income per person, the proportion of electricity consumption of the sectors in total, and electric price. Forecasted results show that the proposed method has a quite low MAPE of 7.66% for long-term forecasting. Variable of electric price does not affect the demand. This is a very critical result of the study for authority governors in Vietnam. In the base scenario of the GDP and the income per person, the forecasted electricity demands of the sectors are 112,853 GWh, 172,691 GWh, and 242,027 GWh in 2020, 2025, 2030, respectively. In high scenario one, the demands are 115,947 GWh, 181,591 GWh, and 257,272 GWh, respectively. The above values in the high scenario are less than from 9.0% to 15.8 % of that of the based on in the Revised version of master plan N0. VII.

scholarly journals Randomized algorithm of invariant zeros evaluation of electrical power system, defined in descriptor form

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 01004
Author(s):  
Magomed Gadzhiev ◽  
Misrikhan Misrikhanov ◽  
Vladimir Ryabchenko ◽  
Nikita Vasilenko
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Power System ◽  
Mimo System ◽  
Electrical Power ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Randomized Algorithm ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Electrical Power System ◽  
Generalized Eigenvalue ◽  
United Power System

A randomized algorithm for computing the invariant zeros of the electric energy system as a dynamical system with many inputs and many outputs (MIMO system), specified in the descriptor form, is proposed. Definitions of invariant zeros are carried out by randomizing the original MIMO system and it reduces to a generalized eigenvalue problem for a numerical matrix. The application of the algorithm is illustrated by the example of calculating the invariant zeros of the linear model of the United Power System.

scholarly journals A study on sustainability of internal power generation compared with imported power in Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Mohebullah Wali ◽  
Himayatullah Majidi ◽  
Milad Ahmad Abdullah ◽  
Mohammad Homayoun Yaqobi
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power System ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Water Control ◽  
Ground Water Recharge ◽  
Political Security

Currently, Afghanistan imports a high percentage of electric energy from the neighboring coun-tries, while less attention has been paid on the utilization of internal domestic energy resources. Recently progress has been made with solar and wind energy, but other sources such as hydro energy remain underappreciated. Originally intended as a short-term solution to fulfill demand, the policy for importing power from neighboring countries is still in effect as energy demand has increased dramatically and exposed vulnerabilities in the existing power system. These issues can be categorized based on different aspects like technical, economic, political, security-related issues, natural disasters and many others that negatively affect the reliability of the energy sector. In this paper, the sustainability of the power system of Afghanistan is analyzed from different aspects. These multi-disciplinary problems are analyzed separately and linked with the weaknesses of the existing power system. The main objective of this study is to propose long-term solutions to the power sector by encouraging investment in the internal power generation to enhance sustainability and reliability. The proposed long-term solution also takes additional measures towards achieving sustainable development goals (SDG) such as economic growth, agricultural development, ground-water recharge, industrial development, flood and water control, job creation, and a green and clean environment.

scholarly journals Bottom-up Long-term Forecasting of Brazilian Commercial Class Electricity Consumption: First Results

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 388-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Q. Bastos ◽  
Reinaldo C. Souza ◽  
Fernando L. Cyrino Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
First Results ◽  
Long Term Forecasting
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