scholarly journals Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 4141-4155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Cortazar ◽  
Cristobal Millard ◽  
Hector Ortega ◽  
Eduardo S. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Commodity Pricing ◽  
Spot Prices

Even though commodity-pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures prices, but also analysts’ forecasts of oil spot prices. We conclude that to obtain reasonable expected spot curves, analysts’ forecasts should be used, either alone or jointly with futures data. The use of both futures and forecasts, instead of using only forecasts, generates expected spot curves that do not differ considerably in the short/medium term, but long term estimations are significantly different. The inclusion of analysts’ forecasts in addition to futures, instead of only futures prices, does not alter significantly the short/medium part of the futures curve but does have a significant effect on long-term futures estimations. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

Economical and Technological Foresight and Firms Development Strategy

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Свирчевский ◽  
Vadim Svirchevskiy ◽  
Юсим ◽  
Vyacheslav Yusim ◽  
Бобков ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Future Production ◽  
Technological Structure ◽  
The Law

In the article a new approach to the development of strategy of commercial organization development is offered. Authors enter the new concept “economical and technological foresight” which is understood as an expert assessment of the strategic directions of social and economic and innovative development, of identification of the technological breaks capable to make impact on economy and society in the medium-term and long term on the basis of the theory of economical and technological development of firm. It is shown how on the basis of the regularities revealed within the theory of economical and technological development of firm it is possible to prove tendencies and laws of development of last, modern and future production systems. It is shown how to use the law of alternation of economical and technological structure of firm and the law of growth of economically justified volumes of release in the development of production systems.

scholarly journals Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Cortazar ◽  
Cristobal Millard ◽  
Hector Ortega ◽  
Eduardo Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Pricing Models

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Relationship between Spot and Futures prices Using Johansen’s Test of Cointegration

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-80
Author(s):  
Sathya Swaroop Debasish
Keyword(s):  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Difference Form ◽  
Adf Test

The main objective of the study is to examine the long-term relationship between spot prices and futures prices A. The study has used daily prices (closing, opening, high and low) in both spot market and futures market for the 40 sample individual stocks drawn from six leading sectors namely, Automobiles, Banking, Cement, Gas, Oil & Refineries, Information Technology and Pharmaceutical. The period of study is from 1st January 1997 to 31st May 2009. The study begins by testing the stationarity of the spot price series and futures price series using two econometric methods namely, Philips Perron (PP) test and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The long term relationship between spot prices and futures prices is statistically tested using Johansen’s test of Cointegration employing likelihood Ratio (L.R.), under the hypothesis that there exists a single cointegration equation between spot and future prices. It is found that both spot prices and futures prices for the selected companies are not stationary in the level form, but there is evidence of stationarity in the first difference form. The study finds a single long-term relationship for each of the selected companies across the six sectors. Among the selected companies in each sector, those evidencing strongest relation in respective sector are Tata Motors, Punjab National Bank, Gujrat Ambuja Cements, Bongaigaon Refineries, I-Flex and GLAXO Pharma.

Reduction of major amputations in the diabetic ischaemic foot: A strategy to "take control" with conservative care as well as revascularisation

VASA ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement 58) ◽  
pp. 6-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmonds ◽  
Foster
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Staging System ◽  
Vascular Control ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Conservative Care ◽  
Arterial Bypass ◽  
Therapeutic Footwear ◽  
Frequent Problem

The diabetic ischaemic foot has become an increasingly frequent problem over the last decade. However, we report a new approach consisting of a basic classification, a simple staging system of the natural history and a treatment plan for each stage, within a multi-disciplinary framework. This approach of "taking control" consists of two parts: 1. long-term conservative care including debridement of ulcers (to obtain wound control), eradication of sepsis (micribiological control), and provision of therapeutic footwear (mechanical control), and 2. revascularisation by angioplasty and arterial bypass (vascular control). This approach has led to a 50% reduction in the rate of major amputations in patients attending with ischaemic ulceration and absent foot pulses from 1989 to 1999 (from 4.6% to 2.3% per year). Patients who underwent angioplasty increased from 6% to 13%. Arterial bypass similarly increased from 3% to 7% of cases. However, even with an increased rate of revascularisation, 80% of patients responded to conservative care alone. This,we conclude, is an essential part of the management of all patients with ischaemic feet.

Aspects of the Evolution of the Romanian Tourists’ Preferences Concerning the Domestic Tourist Destinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Aniela Bălăcescu ◽  
Radu Șerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
On Line ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

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