scholarly journals An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Batch Acceptance Problems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge González-Ortega ◽  
Refik Soyer ◽  
David Ríos Insua ◽  
Fabrizio Ruggeri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Optimal Policies ◽  
Review Spam ◽  
Attack Strategy

We provide an adversarial risk analysis framework for batch acceptance problems in which a decision maker relies exclusively on the size of the batch to accept or reject its admission to a system, albeit being aware of the presence of an opponent. The adversary acts as a data-fiddler attacker perturbing the observations perceived by the decision maker through injecting faulty items and/or modifying the existing items to faulty ones. We develop optimal policies against this combined attack strategy and illustrate the methodology with a review spam example.

scholarly journals An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1637-1670 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. L. M. Diermanse ◽  
J. V. L. Beckers
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrodynamic Interaction ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
River Deltas ◽  
River Flood ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis

Abstract. This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine–Meuse delta.

scholarly journals A Risk Analysis Framework for Social Engineering Attack Based on User Profiling

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-49
Author(s):  
Ziwei Ye ◽  
Yuanbo Guo ◽  
Ankang Ju ◽  
Fushan Wei ◽  
Ruijie Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Security Analysis ◽  
Social Engineering ◽  
Cloud Service ◽  
User Profiling ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Protection Mechanism ◽  
The Social

Social engineering attacks are becoming serious threats to cloud service. Social engineering attackers could get Cloud service custom privacy information or attack virtual machine images directly. Existing security analysis instruments are difficult to quantify the social engineering attack risk, resulting in invalid defense guidance for social engineering attacks. In this article, a risk analysis framework for social engineering attack is proposed based on user profiling. The framework provides a pathway to quantitatively calculate the possibility of being compromised by social engineering attack and potential loss, so as to effectively complement current security assessment instruments. The frequency of related operations is used to profile and group users for respective risk calculation, and other features such as security awareness and capability of protection mechanism are also considered. Finally, examples are given to illustrate how to use the framework in actual scenario and apply it to security assessment.

Research on the Satisficing Policy of the Secretary Problem

2013 ◽  
Vol 427-429 ◽  
pp. 1924-1927
Author(s):  
Xin Lin Wu ◽  
Yong Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Secretary Problem ◽  
Possibility Degree ◽  
Optimal Policies ◽  
Experimental Researches

The methods for determining optimal policies are core problems in the standard secretary problem. The optimal policies are based on the hypothesis of complete rationality. However, some experimental researches showed that decision makers in reality often stopped searching earlier. In this paper, some assumptions of the standard secretary problem are weakened and a satisficing policy based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality is proposed to describe the choice behavior of a decision maker. Moreover, the possibility degree of the decision-maker to choose the satisfactory item is calculated.

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Analysis of Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Fu Wang ◽  
Yu Lian Li ◽  
Biao Zhang ◽  
Pei Na Yan ◽  
Li Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Human And Organizational Factors ◽  
Explosion Risk

A dynamic risk analysis model of offshore fire and explosion is proposed in this paper. It considers the effect of human and organizational factors in a more explicit way than current traditional risk analysis methods. This paper begins with exploring the recent advances on offshore fire and explosion risk analysis theories, followed by briefly introducing the research techniques employed in the proposed hybrid causal logic model which consists of event tree, fault tree, Bayesian network, and system dynamics. Thereafter, it proposes a quantitative risk analysis framework. At last, the applicability of this model to the offshore platform is also discussed. It aims to provide guideline for risk analysis of offshore fire and explosion.

scholarly journals Assessing the relative effects of fishing on the New Zealand marine environment through risk analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnie L. Campbell ◽  
Charmaine Gallagher
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Marine Environment ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Orange Roughy ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Risk Ranking ◽  
Aid Decision

Abstract Campbell, M. L. and Gallagher, C. 2007. Assessing the relative effects of fishing on the New Zealand marine environment through risk analysis – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 256–270. Risk analysis is a tool often used by management to aid decision-making. We present a risk-analysis framework that was developed to facilitate managing New Zealand fisheries. Using catch-effort and observer data, the likelihood that a certain fishery will impact upon five effects of fishing (EoF) issues (non-target species, biodiversity, habitat, trophic interactions, and legislated protected species) is determined. The consequences (impact and/or change) of such events are then determined to determine a relative risk ranking across fisheries. Consequence matrices were developed to assess each of the five EoF categories. To illustrate the model, a 13-y data set of New Zealand fisheries catch-effort and observer data was analysed, using orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) as an example fishery. The New Zealand fisheries management framework follows a traditional model in which socio-political imperatives are determined (through risk assessment) after ecological impacts are assessed. By maintaining separation between ecological and socio-political imperatives, a transparent and objective framework is established.

Can we understand complex systems in terms of risk analysis?

2011 ◽  
Vol 226 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-358
Author(s):  
J Vatn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Complexity Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Operations ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

The concept of integrated operations (IO) introduces new ways of operations in the offshore petroleum industry. IO is often characterized by virtual decision arenas where many safety critical decisions are supported and made by distributed actors with different rationalities and responsibilities. This will challenge more traditional decision processes in several ways and it has been questioned whether the risk analysis framework can handle what some authors denote as emerging and escaping risks. Complexity is often considered as a source of such risks. In this paper risk is defined as uncertainty regarding occurrence and severity of undesired events. Next a variety of techniques for structuring and quantifying uncertainty are listed. To approach complexity it is proposed to identify a set of complexity characteristics in relation to the accidental scenarios to be undertaken in the analysis. This enables uncertainty due to complexity to be approached within the same framework as that used to cope with other sources of uncertainty. The important steps in such an integrated risk and complexity analysis are listed, and some of these steps are discussed in the light of examples relevant to IO.

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