Fuzzy Consensus Qualitative Risk Analysis Framework for Real Estate Projects

Four arctic offshore loading concepts are selected, loading from the corner of a platform, loading in the wake of a loading tower, Submerged Turret Loading (STL) and Single Anchor Loading (SAL). The influence of variations in the ice drift direction on the performance of these concepts is discussed and critical drift events are determined. Ice drift measurements from eight ARGOS/GPS buoys deployed in the Pechora Sea in winters 1995 and 1998 are analysed to estimate downtime rates of these loading systems due to ice drift heading changes. Depending on the location in the Pechora Sea and the chosen concept, downtime rates range from 6 to 72%. A discussion on how these rates will vary with different assumptions, different ice conditions or different ice management is given. Finally the loading concepts are compared through a qualitative risk analysis.

Download Full-text

La rehabilitación urbana como integración en la ciudad: Modelo de análisis desde la experiencia española

REVISTARQUIS ◽

10.15517/ra.v5i2.27138 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Ángela Matesanz Parellada ◽

Agustín Hernández Aja

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Urban Policy ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Real Estate Market ◽

Environmental Crisis ◽

Sustainable Urban Development ◽

Analysis Framework ◽

Policy Interventions ◽

Disadvantaged Neighbourhoods ◽

The City

ResumenDesde Europa, en un contexto global de crisis económica, social y ambiental, agravado en el caso español por las consecuencias de la burbuja inmobiliaria, se preconiza la apuesta por la Regeneración Urbana Integrada enmarcada dentro de la Estrategia de Desarrollo Urbano Sostenible Integrado (MHAP, 2015). Aunque ambas estrategias tienen continuidad con el modelo de intervención urbana territorializada de enfoque integrado, impulsadas mediante programas de financiación europeos y dirigidas a barrios desfavorecidos, se incorpora la visión, hasta ahora poco visible, de la necesidad de considerar estas áreas como parte de una ciudad concebida como un todo y en la que resulta fundamental el equilibrio entre sus partes. Esta idea de la rehabilitación urbana como una herramienta de cohesión global, apenas tratada hasta ahora, precisa de un nuevo marco que permita evaluar los resultados de las acciones desarrolladas hasta la fecha, de forma que sus experiencias puedan servir de base para desarrollar nuevas propuestas.Este artículo parte de la necesidad, urgente en el contexto español en el que se enmarca, de definir un nuevo modelo de rehabilitación urbana, que además de integrar las políticas sectoriales y la participación de todos los agentes, incluya el objetivo de la integración de los barrios en un modelo integrado de ciudad. Para ello, plantea un modelo de análisis del objetivo de integración que supere las metodologías, en muchos casos sectoriales, de las actuales políticas e intervención en barrios. AbstractIn the European context of economic, social and environmental crisis, we find theSpanish case where its context is hardly worse, as consequences of an economic model based on real estate market. From this point the European Union’s commitment advocates the Integrated Urban Regeneration framed in the overall context of the strategy for Integrated Sustainable Urban Development (MHAP, 2015). Moreover, both strategies establish some continuity with the line of area-based urban interventions with integrated approach promoted by European programs and targeted on disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Equally the vision of the city as a whole and the necessary balance between its parts has been incorporated to them. This last issue, treated so far in a context with falling interest in planning, requires a new analysis framework to assess the actions taken and also to date and serve as a basis for developing new proposals.Therefore, it is considered the urgency in defining a new model of urban rehabilitation in Spain, which integrates sectoral policies and the (real) participation of all actors, so that, the paper will be based on the need of the neighbourhood’s integration into the city. It is also purposed a possible base of analysis for such integration, which might improve or get over the current urban policy interventions in neighbourhoods.

Download Full-text

An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-2-1637-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 1637-1670 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

K. M. de Bruijn ◽

F. L. M. Diermanse ◽

J. V. L. Beckers

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Hydrodynamic Interaction ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Water Levels ◽

Analysis Framework ◽

Flood Risks ◽

River Deltas ◽

River Flood ◽

Flood Risk Analysis

Abstract. This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine–Meuse delta.

Download Full-text