Extending the integrated land-use and transport model framework

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Δημήτριος Ευθυμίου
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Framework

Τα Ολοκληρωμένα Μοντέλα Χρήσεων-γης και Μεταφορών (ΟΜΧΓΜ)συνδυάζουν πρότυπα επιλογής τοποθεσίας κατοικίας/εργασίας, αξιώνακινήτων και κυκλοφοριακά μοντέλα, για την εκτίμηση και πρόβλεψη τωνεπιπτώσεων συγκοινωνιακών έργων και πολιτικών χρήσεων – γης στοπεριβάλλον, την κοινωνία και την οικονομία των αστικών περιοχών. Για τηναναπαράσταση των πολύπλοκων αστικών συστημάτων απαιτούνταιπολυσύνθετες μεθοδολογίες και λεπτομερή δεδομένα. Η πρόβλεψη κρίσιμωνστοιχείων της αστικής δομής και η έλλειψη ικανοτήτων πρόβλεψης τουμοντέλου, οδηγεί σε λανθασμένες εκτιμήσεις, που σε περιπτώσειςσυγκοινωνιακών επενδύσεων μεταφράζεται σε απώλειες εκατομμυρίων ευρώκαι κοινωνική ανισότητα. Ως εκ τούτου, τα ΟΜΧΓΜ αξιοποιούνται ακόμαδιστακτικά, ενώ τα τελευταία χρόνια το ενδιαφέρον της επιστημονικής κοινότητας αυξάνεται διαρκώς. Αντικείμενο της παρούσας έρευνας είναι να διερευνήσει, αναπτύξει καιπροτείνει μεθοδολογίες συλλογής δεδομένων, μοντελοποίησης καιαξιολόγησης πολιτικών για ολοκληρωμένα Μοντέλα Χρήσεων-Γης καιΜεταφορών. Οι προτεινόμενες προσεγγίσεις αποσκοπούν στη μείωση τουκόστους και την αύξηση της ικανότητας πρόβλεψης, εκμεταλλευόμενες ταπλεονεκτήματα της μικρό- προσομοίωσης σε τρείς διαστάσεις: άτομο, χώροκαι χρόνο.Η παρούσα διδακτορική έρευνα συμβάλλει με τα ακόλουθα στη διεύρυνσητου μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου των ΟΜΧΗΜ:- Διερευνάται η προοπτική χρήσης δεδομένων συλλεγμένων από τα πλήθη(crowd-sourced) στην ανάπτυξη ΟΜΧΓΜ. Ηλεκτρονικά δεδομέναακινήτων συλλέχθηκαν και χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για την ανάπτυξηπροτύπων. Δεδομένα χρήσεων-γης /κάλυψης εξάχθηκαν από δορυφορικέςαπεικονίσεις με μεθόδους τηλεπισκόπισης, με σκοπό να χρησιμοποιηθούνγια την ανάπτυξη μοντέλων. Σκοπεύοντας στη μείωση της εξάρτησης απόβάσεις δεδομένων υψηλού κόστους, προτείνεται μια γράφο-θεωρητική προσέγγιση για δημιουργία συσχετίσεων σε συνθετικό πληθυσμό.- Προτείνεται ένα πλαίσιο ενσωμάτωσης χωρικών οικονομετρικών μοντέλωνσε ΟΜΧΓΜ. Πιο συγκεκριμένα:o Με τη χρήση χωρικών οικονομετρικών μοντέλων μοντελοποιήθηκανοι αξίες των ακινήτων. Τα μοντέλα αυτά οδηγούν σε καλύτερηακρίβεια συγκριτικά με τη μέθοδο των ελαχίστων τετραγώνων, καιαπαλείφουν αποτελεσματικά τη χωρική αυτοσυσχέτιση.Αποσκοπώντας στη μέτρηση των επιπτώσεων των συγκοινωνιακώνυποδομών και πολιτικών στις αξίες αγοράς και ενοικίασης,αναπτύχθηκαν δυο περιπτωσιακές μελέτες στην Ελλάδα, για τηνΑθήνα και τη Θεσσαλονίκηo Nγινε προτυποποίηση της αλλαγής χρήσεων-γης/κάλυψης με τηχρήση χωρικού μοντέλου διακριτών επιλογών, επιτυγχάνονταςκαλύτερη εφαρμογή από τη γενικευμένη γραμμική παρεμβολή.Διερευνήθηκαν οι επιπτώσεις συγκοινωνιακών υποδομών μεγάληςέκτασης στην αλλαγή χρήσεων γης στην Αθήνα.Αναπτύχθηκε μεθοδολογία για τη χωρική κατανομήσυγκοινωνιακών υποδομών (σταθμών φόρτισης ηλεκτρικώναυτοκινήτων, μοιραζόμενων/κοινόχρηστων αυτοκινήτων καιποδηλάτων) που βασίζεται σε χωρικά οικονομετρικά μοντέλα και πολύ-κριτηριακή ανάλυση.- Αναπτύχθηκε μεθοδολογία για ποιοτική και ποσοτική αξιολόγησηπολιτικών που βασίζεται σε δείκτες, εκμεταλλευόμενη τα οφέλη της μικρό-προσομοίωσης σε τρείς διαστάσεις (άτομο, χώρο και χρόνο). Διερευνάται ηχρήση άτομο-βασικών δεικτών για την προσβασιμότητα, ανισότητα,οικονομία/επενδύσεις και κοινωνική ποιότητα. Η προτεινόμενημεθοδολογία βασίζεται σε χωρικές κατανομές και όχι σε μοναδικέςγενικευμένες μετρήσεις- Διερευνήθηκαν οι συνέπειες της χρηματοοικονομικής κρίσης στηναντίληψη των μετακινούμενων για την ποιότητα των συγκοινωνιακώνυποδομών/πολιτικών, και στις αξίες ακινήτων.

scholarly journals Assessment of Streamflow Simulation for a Tropical Forested Catchment Using Dynamic TOPMODEL—Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology (DECIPHeR) Framework and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Fadhliani Umar ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Badronnisa Yusuf ◽  
Siti Nurhidayu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Behavioral Threshold ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Rainfall runoff modeling has been a subject of interest for decades due to a need to understand a catchment system for management, for example regarding extreme event occurrences such as flooding. Tropical catchments are particularly prone to the hazards of extreme precipitation and the internal drivers of change in the system, such as deforestation and land use change. A model framework of dynamic TOPMODEL, DECIPHeR v1—considering the flexibility, modularity, and portability—and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method are both used in this study. They reveal model performance for the streamflow simulation in a tropical catchment, i.e., the Kelantan River in Malaysia, that is prone to flooding and experiences high rates of land use change. Thirty-two years’ continuous simulation at a daily time scale simulation along with uncertainty analysis resulted in a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) score of 0.42 from the highest ranked parameter set, while 25.35% of the measurement falls within the uncertainty boundary based on a behavioral threshold NSE 0.3. The performance and behavior of the model in the continuous simulation suggests a limited ability of the model to represent the system, particularly along the low flow regime. In contrast, the simulation of eight peak flow events achieves moderate to good fit, with the four peak flow events simulation returning an NSE > 0.5. Nonetheless, the parameter scatter plot from both the continuous simulation and analyses of peak flow events indicate unidentifiability of all model parameters. This may be attributable to the catchment modeling scale. The results demand further investigation regarding the heterogeneity of parameters and calibration at multiple scales.

Tools for Urban Land Use—Transport Strategy Planning

1975 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. G. Hutchinson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Strategy Planning ◽  
Development Alternatives ◽  
Employment Location ◽  
Urban Strategy ◽  
Analytical Tools

Urban strategy planning studies are directed towards the estimation of the transport demand and other servicing implications of a range of urban development alternatives. These studies attempt to isolate those concepts which might lead to costly and intractable infrastructure problems. Several analytical tools that may be used to explore the implications of strategic development alternatives are described.A land use-transport model is described which may be used to estimate the implications of alternative public development policies. These policies may include servicing and transportation options, basic and service employment location alternatives, and zoning. The model calculates an internally consistent co-distribution of population and employment along with the associated travel demands for each set of public policies. A corridor-level traffic assignment technique is described which may be used along with the land use-transport model to develop corridor travel demand estimates for each development concept. Computer-based procedures for estimating the servicing requirements of alternative development concepts are also described. These procedures directly employ the land use allocations calculated by the land use model. The use of the analytical tools is illustrated with information from the Hamilton area.

MUSSA: Land Use Model for Santiago City

1996 ◽  
Vol 1552 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Total Activity ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
Land Use Model ◽  
Performance Indexes ◽  
Land Rents ◽  
Urban Land Market ◽  
Data Requirements

MUSSA is a land use model developed to interact with the Santiago four-stage transport model called ESTRAUS. It was developed as an application of the BID-CHOICE theory of the competitive urban land market, where land rents are endogenous and consistent with equilibrium conditions, including land availability and developers’ behavior. Interaction with transport occurs through economic access measures obtained from the ESTRAUS model; in turn, MUSSA provides the locations of activities (households and firms). Total activity volumes and population forecasts are exogenously provided by a region input-output model. The whole system interacts through a central data base with a graphic interface (geographic information system) under Windows. MUSSA is able to forecast location choices of 65 household clusters into 264 zones and six dwelling types plus five firm types allocated to lot sizes; residents and firms compete for the available land. It is a fully disaggregated behavioral location model that is applied in a static equilibrium approach. The package and the model are presented; its capacities and limitations, data requirements, software, and outputs are described; and some performance indexes are presented.

scholarly journals Decadal changes in anthropogenic source contribution of PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution and related health impacts in China, 1990–2015

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Yixuan Zheng ◽  
Guannan Geng ◽  
Chaopeng Hong ◽  
Meng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Anthropogenic Source ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Source Contribution ◽  
Residential Sector

Abstract. Air quality in China has changed dramatically in response to rapid development of economy and policies. In this work, we investigate the changes of anthropogenic source contribution to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and related health impacts in China during 1990–2015 and elucidate the drivers behind the decadal transition. We estimate the contribution of five anthropogenic emitting sectors to ambient PM2.5 exposure and related premature mortality over China during 1990–2015 with 5-yr intervals, by using an integrated model framework of bottom-up emission inventory, chemical transport model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). The national anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated with GEMM for the nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable diseases and lower respiratory infections rose from 1.26 million (95 % CI: 1.05, 1.46) in 1990 to 2.18 million (95 % CI: 1.84, 2.50) in 2005; then, it decreased to 2.10 million (95 % CI: 1.76, 2.42) in 2015. In 1990, the residential sector was the leading source of the PM2.5-related premature mortality [559,000 (95 % CI: 467,000, 645,900), 44 % of total] in China, followed by industry (29 %), power (13 %), agriculture (9 %) and transportation (5 %). In 2015, the industrial sector became the largest contributor of PM2.5-related premature mortality [734,000 (95 % CI: 615,500, 844,900), 35 % of total], followed by residential (25 %), agriculture (23 %), transportation (10 %) and power (6 %). The decadal changes in source contribution to PM2.5-related premature mortality in China represents a combined impact of socioeconomic development and clean air policy. For example, active control measures have successfully reduced pollution from power sector, while contribution from industrial and transportation sector continuously increased due to more prominent growth of activity rates. Transition in fuel consumption dominated the decrease of contribution from residential sector. In the meanwhile, contribution from agriculture sector continuously increased due to persistent NH3 emissions and enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under a NH3 rich environment.

scholarly journals Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruka Ohashi ◽  
Tomoko Hasegawa ◽  
Akiko Hirata ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Global Biodiversity

AbstractLimiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

A land use-transport model for metropolitan areas

1983 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideo Nakamura ◽  
Yoshitsugu Hayashi ◽  
Kazuaki Miyamoto
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Transport Model

scholarly journals Tidal Variation in Cohesive Sediment Distribution and Sensitivity to Flocculation and Bed Consolidation in An Idealized, Partially Mixed Estuary

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarpley ◽  
Harris ◽  
Friedrichs ◽  
Sherwood
Keyword(s):  
Settling Velocity ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Tidal Flow ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Tidal Variation ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Floc Size ◽  
Size Classes ◽  
Suspended Floc

Particle settling velocity and erodibility are key factors that govern the transport of sediment through coastal environments including estuaries. These are difficult to parameterize in models that represent mud, whose properties can change in response to many factors, including tidally varying suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and shear stress. Using the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) model framework, we implemented bed consolidation, sediment-induced stratification, and flocculation formulations within an idealized two-dimensional domain that represented the longitudinal dimension of a micro-tidal, muddy, partially mixed estuary. Within the Estuarine Turbidity Maximum (ETM), SSC and median floc diameter varied by a factor of four over the tidal cycle. Downstream of the ETM, the median floc size and SSC were several times smaller and showed less tidal variation (~20% or less). The suspended floc distributions only reached an equilibrium size as a function of SSC and shear in the ETM at peak tidal flow. In general, flocculation increased particle size, which reduced SSC by half in the ETM through increased settling velocity. Consolidation also limited SSC by reduced resuspension, which then limited floc growth through reduced SSC by half outside of the ETM. Sediment-induced stratification had negligible effects in the parameter space examined. Efforts to lessen the computation cost of the flocculation routine by reducing the number of size classes proved difficult; floc size distribution and SSC were sensitive to specification of size classes by factors of 60% and 300%, respectively.

scholarly journals Decadal changes in anthropogenic source contribution of PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution and related health impacts in China, 1990–2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 7783-7799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Yixuan Zheng ◽  
Guannan Geng ◽  
Chaopeng Hong ◽  
Meng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Anthropogenic Source ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Source Contribution ◽  
Residential Sector

Abstract. Air quality in China has changed dramatically in response to rapid development of the economy and to policies. In this work, we investigate the changes in anthropogenic source contribution to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and related health impacts in China during 1990–2015 and elucidate the drivers behind the decadal transition. We estimate the contribution of five anthropogenic emitting sectors to ambient PM2.5 exposure and related premature mortality over China during 1990–2015 with 5-year intervals, by using an integrated model framework of a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). The national anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated with the GEMM for nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable diseases and lower respiratory infections rose from 1.26 million (95 % confidence interval (CI) [1.05, 1.46]) in 1990 to 2.18 million (95 % CI [1.84, 2.50]) in 2005; then, it decreased to 2.10 million (95 % CI [1.76, 2.42]) in 2015. In 1990, the residential sector was the leading source of the PM2.5-related premature mortality (559 000, 95 % CI [467 000, 645 900], 44 % of total) in China, followed by industry (29 %), power (13 %), agriculture (9 %), and transportation (5 %). In 2015, the industrial sector became the largest contributor of PM2.5-related premature mortality (734 000, 95 % CI [615 500, 844 900], 35 % of total), followed by the residential sector (25 %), agriculture (23 %), transportation (10 %), and power (6 %). The decadal changes in source contribution to PM2.5-related premature mortality in China represent a combined impact of socioeconomic development and clean-air policy. For example, active control measures have successfully reduced pollution from the power sector, while contributions from the industrial and transportation sectors have continuously increased due to more prominent growth in activity rates. A transition in fuel consumption has dominated the decrease in the contribution from residential sector. Meanwhile, the contribution from the agriculture sector has continuously increased due to persistent NH3 emissions and enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under an NH3-rich environment.

‘Motorways in London’ and Transport Planning

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Beesley
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Transport Planning ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Journey To Work

Motorways in London proposes a substantial reduction in the planned motorway network in London, and its redistribution away from the centre, but it is argued that the book does not justify its case by the measurements presented, and pays too little attention to amenities and compensation. The article is largely concerned with problems for transport planning arising from the book and the official transport and planning documents of 1968 and 1969. The latter's land use and transport model is criticised for its neglect of the economic implications of its ‘suppression’ of trips where networks are overloaded. The model parameters should be required to conform to observed distributions of journey lengths, especially those to work, based on workplace data and recognising the influences, inter alia, of variations in income and levels of skill. A key question in making present models better reflect the long-run interaction between transport and land use is predicting journey-to-work lengths. A model to explain their past change is proposed, based on Census data, measuring the effect of changes in job opportunities, housing demands, and population shifts.

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