‘Motorways in London’ and Transport Planning

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Beesley
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Transport Planning ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Journey To Work

Motorways in London proposes a substantial reduction in the planned motorway network in London, and its redistribution away from the centre, but it is argued that the book does not justify its case by the measurements presented, and pays too little attention to amenities and compensation. The article is largely concerned with problems for transport planning arising from the book and the official transport and planning documents of 1968 and 1969. The latter's land use and transport model is criticised for its neglect of the economic implications of its ‘suppression’ of trips where networks are overloaded. The model parameters should be required to conform to observed distributions of journey lengths, especially those to work, based on workplace data and recognising the influences, inter alia, of variations in income and levels of skill. A key question in making present models better reflect the long-run interaction between transport and land use is predicting journey-to-work lengths. A model to explain their past change is proposed, based on Census data, measuring the effect of changes in job opportunities, housing demands, and population shifts.

REGIONAL ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REGULATION OF LAND USE IN UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
pp. 62-66
Author(s):  
Anatolii Sunduk ◽  
Lyudmila Shashula
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Regulation ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Long Run

The regional aspects of implementing of the tools of financial and economic regulation in framework of land use are researched. The coefficient of activity concentrating (Kka) are developed. In according to indicator calculations the regions are significantly differentiated in borders of a country. On the basis of territories grouping were made prioritizing of regions in according to indicators and financial flows. In the long run they can create a platform for strengthening regulatory characteristics. At the same time, under the conditions of activation of innovative regulatory tools, the values of Kka’s of the low-level regions group may increase.

Parameter Determination for Chloride and Tritium Transport in Undisturbed Lysimeters during Steady Flow

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole H. Jacobsen ◽  
Feike J. Leij ◽  
Martinus Th. van Genuchten
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Unsaturated Flow ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Time Moment ◽  
Breakthrough Curves ◽  
Coarse Sand ◽  
Retardation Factor ◽  
Parameter Determination ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Water Fraction

Breakthrough curves of Cl and 3H2O were obtained during steady unsaturated flow in five lysimeters containing an undisturbed coarse sand (Orthic Haplohumod). The experimental data were analyzed in terms of the classical two-parameter convection-dispersion equation and a four-parameter two-region type physical nonequilibrium solute transport model. Model parameters were obtained by both curve fitting and time moment analysis. The four-parameter model provided a much better fit to the data for three soil columns, but performed only slightly better for the two remaining columns. The retardation factor for Cl was about 10 % less than for 3H2O, indicating some anion exclusion. For the four-parameter model the average immobile water fraction was 0.14 and the Peclet numbers of the mobile region varied between 50 and 200. Time moments analysis proved to be a useful tool for quantifying the break through curve (BTC) although the moments were found to be sensitive to experimental scattering in the measured data at larger times. Also, fitted parameters described the experimental data better than moment generated parameter values.

scholarly journals A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Frauke Kachholz ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes.

scholarly journals Assessment of Streamflow Simulation for a Tropical Forested Catchment Using Dynamic TOPMODEL—Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology (DECIPHeR) Framework and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Fadhliani Umar ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Badronnisa Yusuf ◽  
Siti Nurhidayu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Behavioral Threshold ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Rainfall runoff modeling has been a subject of interest for decades due to a need to understand a catchment system for management, for example regarding extreme event occurrences such as flooding. Tropical catchments are particularly prone to the hazards of extreme precipitation and the internal drivers of change in the system, such as deforestation and land use change. A model framework of dynamic TOPMODEL, DECIPHeR v1—considering the flexibility, modularity, and portability—and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method are both used in this study. They reveal model performance for the streamflow simulation in a tropical catchment, i.e., the Kelantan River in Malaysia, that is prone to flooding and experiences high rates of land use change. Thirty-two years’ continuous simulation at a daily time scale simulation along with uncertainty analysis resulted in a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) score of 0.42 from the highest ranked parameter set, while 25.35% of the measurement falls within the uncertainty boundary based on a behavioral threshold NSE 0.3. The performance and behavior of the model in the continuous simulation suggests a limited ability of the model to represent the system, particularly along the low flow regime. In contrast, the simulation of eight peak flow events achieves moderate to good fit, with the four peak flow events simulation returning an NSE > 0.5. Nonetheless, the parameter scatter plot from both the continuous simulation and analyses of peak flow events indicate unidentifiability of all model parameters. This may be attributable to the catchment modeling scale. The results demand further investigation regarding the heterogeneity of parameters and calibration at multiple scales.

scholarly journals Application of Dynamically Constrained Interpolation Methodology in Simulating National-Scale Spatial Distribution of PM2.5 Concentrations in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 272
Author(s):  
Ning Li ◽  
Junli Xu ◽  
Xianqing Lv
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Constrained Interpolation ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Right

Numerous studies have revealed that the sparse spatiotemporal distributions of ground-level PM2.5 measurements affect the accuracy of PM2.5 simulation, especially in large geographical regions. However, the high precision and stability of ground-level PM2.5 measurements make their role irreplaceable in PM2.5 simulations. This article applies a dynamically constrained interpolation methodology (DCIM) to evaluate sparse PM2.5 measurements captured at scattered monitoring sites for national-scale PM2.5 simulations and spatial distributions. The DCIM takes a PM2.5 transport model as a dynamic constraint and provides the characteristics of the spatiotemporal variations of key model parameters using the adjoint method to improve the accuracy of PM2.5 simulations. From the perspective of interpolation accuracy and effect, kriging interpolation and orthogonal polynomial fitting using Chebyshev basis functions (COPF), which have been proved to have high PM2.5 simulation accuracy, were adopted to make a comparative assessment of DCIM performance and accuracy. Results of the cross validation confirm the feasibility of the DCIM. A comparison between the final interpolated values and observations show that the DCIM is better for national-scale simulations than kriging or COPF. Furthermore, the DCIM presents smoother spatially interpolated distributions of the PM2.5 simulations with smaller simulation errors than the other two methods. Admittedly, the sparse PM2.5 measurements in a highly polluted region have a certain degree of influence on the interpolated distribution accuracy and rationality. To some extent, adding the right amount of observations can improve the effectiveness of the DCIM around existing monitoring sites. Compared with the kriging interpolation and COPF, the results show that the DCIM used in this study would be more helpful for providing reasonable information for monitoring PM2.5 pollution in China.

Mistletoes in a changing world: a premonition of a non-analog future?

Botany ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (9) ◽  
pp. 479-488
Author(s):  
Francisco E. Fontúrbel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ecological Interactions ◽  
Human Disturbances ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Plant Animal Interactions ◽  
Changing World

Mistletoes are a group of flowering plants that have developed a parasitic lifeform through complex eco-evolutionary processes. Despite being considered a pest, mistletoes represent a keystone forest resource and are involved in complex plant–plant and plant–animal interactions. Their parasitic lifeform and specialized ecological interactions make mistletoes an ideal model with which to understand the effects of anthropogenic disturbances in a changing world. The accelerated growth of the human population has altered all ecosystems on Earth, leading to biodiversity loss. Land-use changes (involving habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and transformation processes) can alter the ecological scenario for mistletoe by altering hosts, mutualists, and nutrient cycling. Those changes may have large consequences at the community level, changing the spatial structure of mistletoes, as well as interaction effectiveness, facilitation process, interaction disruption, and novel interactions with invasive species, leading to non-analog communities in the long run. Furthermore, climate change effects operate on a global scale, enhancing the effects of land-use changes. As temperatures increase, many species would alter their distribution and phenology, potentially causing spatial and temporal mismatches. But more critical is the fact that water stress is likely to disrupt key ecological interactions. Thus, mistletoes can provide valuable insights for what we can expect in the future, as a result of human disturbances.

Extending the integrated land-use and transport model framework

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Δημήτριος Ευθυμίου
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Framework

Τα Ολοκληρωμένα Μοντέλα Χρήσεων-γης και Μεταφορών (ΟΜΧΓΜ)συνδυάζουν πρότυπα επιλογής τοποθεσίας κατοικίας/εργασίας, αξιώνακινήτων και κυκλοφοριακά μοντέλα, για την εκτίμηση και πρόβλεψη τωνεπιπτώσεων συγκοινωνιακών έργων και πολιτικών χρήσεων – γης στοπεριβάλλον, την κοινωνία και την οικονομία των αστικών περιοχών. Για τηναναπαράσταση των πολύπλοκων αστικών συστημάτων απαιτούνταιπολυσύνθετες μεθοδολογίες και λεπτομερή δεδομένα. Η πρόβλεψη κρίσιμωνστοιχείων της αστικής δομής και η έλλειψη ικανοτήτων πρόβλεψης τουμοντέλου, οδηγεί σε λανθασμένες εκτιμήσεις, που σε περιπτώσειςσυγκοινωνιακών επενδύσεων μεταφράζεται σε απώλειες εκατομμυρίων ευρώκαι κοινωνική ανισότητα. Ως εκ τούτου, τα ΟΜΧΓΜ αξιοποιούνται ακόμαδιστακτικά, ενώ τα τελευταία χρόνια το ενδιαφέρον της επιστημονικής κοινότητας αυξάνεται διαρκώς. Αντικείμενο της παρούσας έρευνας είναι να διερευνήσει, αναπτύξει καιπροτείνει μεθοδολογίες συλλογής δεδομένων, μοντελοποίησης καιαξιολόγησης πολιτικών για ολοκληρωμένα Μοντέλα Χρήσεων-Γης καιΜεταφορών. Οι προτεινόμενες προσεγγίσεις αποσκοπούν στη μείωση τουκόστους και την αύξηση της ικανότητας πρόβλεψης, εκμεταλλευόμενες ταπλεονεκτήματα της μικρό- προσομοίωσης σε τρείς διαστάσεις: άτομο, χώροκαι χρόνο.Η παρούσα διδακτορική έρευνα συμβάλλει με τα ακόλουθα στη διεύρυνσητου μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου των ΟΜΧΗΜ:- Διερευνάται η προοπτική χρήσης δεδομένων συλλεγμένων από τα πλήθη(crowd-sourced) στην ανάπτυξη ΟΜΧΓΜ. Ηλεκτρονικά δεδομέναακινήτων συλλέχθηκαν και χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για την ανάπτυξηπροτύπων. Δεδομένα χρήσεων-γης /κάλυψης εξάχθηκαν από δορυφορικέςαπεικονίσεις με μεθόδους τηλεπισκόπισης, με σκοπό να χρησιμοποιηθούνγια την ανάπτυξη μοντέλων. Σκοπεύοντας στη μείωση της εξάρτησης απόβάσεις δεδομένων υψηλού κόστους, προτείνεται μια γράφο-θεωρητική προσέγγιση για δημιουργία συσχετίσεων σε συνθετικό πληθυσμό.- Προτείνεται ένα πλαίσιο ενσωμάτωσης χωρικών οικονομετρικών μοντέλωνσε ΟΜΧΓΜ. Πιο συγκεκριμένα:o Με τη χρήση χωρικών οικονομετρικών μοντέλων μοντελοποιήθηκανοι αξίες των ακινήτων. Τα μοντέλα αυτά οδηγούν σε καλύτερηακρίβεια συγκριτικά με τη μέθοδο των ελαχίστων τετραγώνων, καιαπαλείφουν αποτελεσματικά τη χωρική αυτοσυσχέτιση.Αποσκοπώντας στη μέτρηση των επιπτώσεων των συγκοινωνιακώνυποδομών και πολιτικών στις αξίες αγοράς και ενοικίασης,αναπτύχθηκαν δυο περιπτωσιακές μελέτες στην Ελλάδα, για τηνΑθήνα και τη Θεσσαλονίκηo Nγινε προτυποποίηση της αλλαγής χρήσεων-γης/κάλυψης με τηχρήση χωρικού μοντέλου διακριτών επιλογών, επιτυγχάνονταςκαλύτερη εφαρμογή από τη γενικευμένη γραμμική παρεμβολή.Διερευνήθηκαν οι επιπτώσεις συγκοινωνιακών υποδομών μεγάληςέκτασης στην αλλαγή χρήσεων γης στην Αθήνα.Αναπτύχθηκε μεθοδολογία για τη χωρική κατανομήσυγκοινωνιακών υποδομών (σταθμών φόρτισης ηλεκτρικώναυτοκινήτων, μοιραζόμενων/κοινόχρηστων αυτοκινήτων καιποδηλάτων) που βασίζεται σε χωρικά οικονομετρικά μοντέλα και πολύ-κριτηριακή ανάλυση.- Αναπτύχθηκε μεθοδολογία για ποιοτική και ποσοτική αξιολόγησηπολιτικών που βασίζεται σε δείκτες, εκμεταλλευόμενη τα οφέλη της μικρό-προσομοίωσης σε τρείς διαστάσεις (άτομο, χώρο και χρόνο). Διερευνάται ηχρήση άτομο-βασικών δεικτών για την προσβασιμότητα, ανισότητα,οικονομία/επενδύσεις και κοινωνική ποιότητα. Η προτεινόμενημεθοδολογία βασίζεται σε χωρικές κατανομές και όχι σε μοναδικέςγενικευμένες μετρήσεις- Διερευνήθηκαν οι συνέπειες της χρηματοοικονομικής κρίσης στηναντίληψη των μετακινούμενων για την ποιότητα των συγκοινωνιακώνυποδομών/πολιτικών, και στις αξίες ακινήτων.

scholarly journals A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2909-2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lienert ◽  
Fortunat Joos
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Wood Harvest ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is applied in a probabilistic framework and benchmarking system to constrain uncertain model parameters by observations and to quantify carbon emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Processes featured in DGVMs include parameters which are prone to substantial uncertainty. To cope with these uncertainties Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is used to create a 1000-member perturbed parameter ensemble, which is then evaluated with a diverse set of global and spatiotemporally resolved observational constraints. We discuss the performance of the constrained ensemble and use it to formulate a new best-guess version of the model (LPX-Bern v1.4). The observationally constrained ensemble is used to investigate historical emissions due to LULCC (ELUC) and their sensitivity to model parametrization. We find a global ELUC estimate of 158 (108, 211) PgC (median and 90 % confidence interval) between 1800 and 2016. We compare ELUC to other estimates both globally and regionally. Spatial patterns are investigated and estimates of ELUC of the 10 countries with the largest contribution to the flux over the historical period are reported. We consider model versions with and without additional land-use processes (shifting cultivation and wood harvest) and find that the difference in global ELUC is on the same order of magnitude as parameter-induced uncertainty and in some cases could potentially even be offset with appropriate parameter choice.

scholarly journals Exploring Urban Spatial Feature with Dasymetric Mapping Based on Mobile Phone Data and LUR-2SFCAe Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingbo Liu ◽  
Zhenghong Peng ◽  
Hao Wu ◽  
Hongzan Jiao ◽  
Yang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Base Station ◽  
Distance Decay ◽  
Base Stations ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Dasymetric Mapping ◽  
Spatial Feature

Dasymetric mapping of high-resolution population facilitates the exploration of urban spatial feature. While most relevant studies are still challenged by weak spatial heterogeneity of ancillary data and quality of traditional census data, usually outdated, costly and inaccurate, this paper focuses on mobile phone data, which can be real-time and precise, and also strengthens spatial heterogeneity by its massive mobile phone base stations. However, user population recorded by mobile phone base stations have no fixed spatial boundary, and base stations often disperse in extremely uneven spatial distribution, this study defines a distance-decay supply–demand relation between mobile phone user population of gridded base station and its surrounding land patches, and outlines a dasymetric mapping method integrating two-step floating catchment area method (2SFCAe) and land use regression (LUR). The results indicate that LUR-2SFCAe method shows a high fitness of regression, provides population mapping at a finer scale and helps identify urban centrality and employment subcenters with detailed worktime and non-worktime populations. The work involving studies of dasymetric mapping based on LUR-2SFCAe method and mobile phone data proves to be encouraging, sheds light on the relationship between mobile phone users and nearby land use, brings about an integrated exploration of 2SFCAe in LUR with distance-decay effect and enhances spatial heterogeneity.

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