scholarly journals The Great Housing Boom of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaiji Chen ◽  
Yi Wen
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
National Income ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Resource Reallocation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Rational Bubble

China’s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China’s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China’s paradoxical housing boom. (JEL O16, O18, P24, P25, R21, R31)

scholarly journals Productivity Growth and Machinery Investment: A Long-Run Look, 1870–1980

1992 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bradford De Long
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Rapid Growth ◽  
History Of Technology ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
History Of ◽  
Good Proxy

Over the past century in six major economies, economic growth has been strongly associated with machinery investment, as is the case for a larger group of nations since 1950. Both macroeconomic patterns and narratives of the history of technology suggest that this association is causal—that a high rate of machinery investment appears to be a necessary prerequisite for rapid long-run growth—and points away from possibilities that rapid growth is the cause of high machinery investment or that a high rate of machinery investment is a good proxy for other factors that are important causes of growth.

scholarly journals Capital Shares and Income Inequality: Evidence from the Long Run

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (3) ◽  
pp. 712-743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Bengtsson ◽  
Daniel Waldenström
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
National Income ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Anglo Saxon ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Income Data ◽  
Cross Country

This article studies the long-run relationship between the capital share in national income and top personal income shares. Using a newly constructed historical cross-country database on capital shares and top income data, we find evidence on a strong, positive link that has grown stronger over the past century. The connection is stronger in Anglo-Saxon countries, in the very top of the distribution, when top capital incomes predominate, when using distributed top national income shares, and when considering gross of depreciation capital shares. Out of-sample predictions of top shares using capital shares indicates several cases of over- or underestimation.

Superstar Cities

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 167-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Gyourko ◽  
Christopher Mayer ◽  
Todd Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
House Price ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Local Factors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Appreciation

We document large long-run differences in average house price appreciation across metropolitan areas over the past 50 years, and show they can be explained by an inelastic supply of land in some unique locations combined with an increasing number of highincome households nationally. The resulting high house prices and price-to-rent ratios in those “superstar” areas crowd out lower income households. The same forces generate a similar pattern among municipalities within a metropolitan area. These facts suggest that disparate local house price and income trends can be driven by aggregate demand, not just changes in local factors such as productivity or amenities. (JEL R11, R23, R31, R52)

The Influence of Institutional Factors on Macroeconomic Dynamics (On the Example of the Russian Federation)

2021 ◽  
pp. 279-293
Author(s):  
Olga S. Demchenko ◽  
◽  
Yulia Yu. Suslova ◽  
Svetlana K. Demchenko ◽  
Sergey A. Zhironkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
National Income ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Institutional Factor ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Past

The article presents an original Keynesian-institutional approach to studying the macroeconomic dynamics of a transitional economy (on the example of Russia). The article proposes theoretical provisions related to the inclusion of an assessment of the institutional factor in the distribution of national income, as well as an authorial approach to modeling the relationship between institutions and aggregate demand based on the construction of linear regression equations, including changes in consumption, investment and institutional environment. Currently, economists have a desire to revise the mainstream and increase the requirements for the explanatory ability of macroeconomic models. The views widespread in economic theory are increasingly criticized due to the predominance of econometric analysis over qualitative interpretations, the unrealistic hypotheses of the rationality of economic agents’ behavior and the perfection of market mechanisms based on the assumption that it is possible to predict the future based on an analysis of the past. In order to solve the indicated problems, it is often proposed to use synthetic theories that combine the achievements of several schools of economic thought. One of these synthetic theories is Keynesian-institutional synthesis. The proposed approach is applied to assess the macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian economy, in which a decrease in consumption and investment volatility have been observed over the past five years, which is associated with macroeconomic stabilization and the development of social support institutions. However, the expectations of economic agents are rather unfavorable, and further measures are needed to stabilize aggregate demand. According to the analysis of official statistics, institutional factors significantly affect aggregate demand, but are not of priority. At the same time, the general conditions of the institutional environment have a stronger effect on investment than on consumption. On this basis, it has been concluded that the progress of institutions can not only accelerate economic growth, but also increase macroeconomic risks; therefore, it increases the responsibility of politicians for decisions in the field of economic regulation.

scholarly journals Inconsistent Condom Use among Public Primary Care Patients with Tuberculosis in South Africa

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gladys Matseke ◽  
Karl Peltzer ◽  
Julia Louw ◽  
Pamela Naidoo ◽  
Gugu Mchunu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Condom Use ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Consistent Condom ◽  
Consistent Condom Use ◽  
Inconsistent Condom ◽  
The Past ◽  
Inconsistent Condom Use

The high rate of HIV infections among tuberculosis (TB) patients in South Africa calls for urgent HIV reduction interventions in this subpopulation. While correct and consistent condom use is one of the effective means of HIV prevention among sexually active people, there is insufficient research on condom use among TB patients in South Africa. The aim of this paper was to determine the prevalence of inconsistent condom use among public primary care TB patients and its associated factors using a sample of 4900 TB patients from a cross-sectional survey in three health districts in South Africa. Results indicated that when asked about their consistency of condom use in the past 3 months, 63.5% of the participants reported that they did not always use condoms. In the multivariable analysis, being married (OR=1.66; 95% CI 1.25–2.20) or cohabitating or separated, divorced, or widowed (OR=3.67; 1.85–7.29), lower educational level (OR=0.66; 0.46–0.94), greater poverty (OR=1.60; 1.25–2.20), not having HIV status disclosed (OR=0.34; 0.25–0.48), sexual partner on antiretroviral treatment (OR=0.38; 0.23–0.60), and partner alcohol use before sex (OR=1.56; 1.30–1.90) were significantly associated with inconsistent condom use in the past 3 months. The low proportion of consistent condom use among TB patients needs to be improved.

scholarly journals Developing Asia – Dynamic but fractured

2021 ◽  
pp. 211-229
Author(s):  
Robert Wihtol
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transition ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Territorial Disputes ◽  
Socialist Market Economy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
The World ◽  
Socialist Market

In the past seventy–five years, developing Asia has transformed more rapidly than any other region. What is behind this success? Will Asia go on to lead the world, or will its rise encounter obstacles? Asia is politically diverse, with democracies, hybrid governments and numerous authoritarian regimes. Several are unstable. Paths to prosperity have varied, including the East Asian model, China’s “socialist market economy”, Indian self–reliance, and economic transition in Central Asia. Regional cooperation is chronically weak, due to the youthfulness, dispersion and diversity of Asia’s sovereign states. China’s rise threatens to fracture the region further. As the region emerges from the Covid–19 crisis, East Asia is well positioned to lead an economic recovery. However, many challenges remain. Political and governance systems are weak. Territorial disputes could escalate into open conflict, including Taiwan. Human capital is poorly developed, and populations are aging. Finally, the region could be polarized between the United States and China.

scholarly journals The impact of African-trained neurosurgeons on sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. E4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Karekezi ◽  
Abdeslam El Khamlichi ◽  
Abdessamad El Ouahabi ◽  
Najia El Abbadi ◽  
Semevo Alidegnon Ahokpossi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
National Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
World Federation ◽  
Neurosurgical Procedures ◽  
Ct Scanner ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

OBJECTIVESub-Saharan Africa (SSA) represents 17% of the world’s land, 14% of the population, and 1% of the gross domestic product. Previous reports have indicated that 81/500 African neurosurgeons (16.2%) worked in SSA—i.e., 1 neurosurgeon per 6 million inhabitants. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to improve neurosurgery availability in SSA. In this study, the authors provide an update by means of the polling of neurosurgeons who trained in North Africa and went back to practice in SSA.METHODSNeurosurgeons who had full training at the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Rabat Training Center (RTC) over the past 16 years were polled with an 18-question survey focused on demographics, practice/case types, and operating room equipment availability.RESULTSData collected from all 21 (100%) WFNS RTC graduates showed that all neurosurgeons returned to work to SSA in 12 different countries, 90% working in low-income and 10% in lower-middle-income countries, defined by the World Bank as a Gross National Income per capita of ≤ US$995 and US$996–$3895, respectively. The cumulative population in the geographical areas in which they practice is 267 million, with a total of 102 neurosurgeons reported, resulting in 1 neurosurgeon per 2.62 million inhabitants. Upon return to SSA, WFNS RTC graduates were employed in public/private hospitals (62%), military hospitals (14.3%), academic centers (14.3%), and private practice (9.5%). The majority reported an even split between spine and cranial and between trauma and elective; 71% performed between 50 and more than 100 neurosurgical procedures/year. Equipment available varied across the cohort. A CT scanner was available to 86%, MRI to 38%, surgical microscope to 33%, endoscope to 19.1%, and neuronavigation to 0%. Three (14.3%) neurosurgeons had access to none of the above.CONCLUSIONSNeurosurgery availability in SSA has significantly improved over the past decade thanks to the dedication of senior African neurosurgeons, organizations, and volunteers who believed in forming the new neurosurgery generation in the same continent where they practice. Challenges include limited resources and the need to continue expanding efforts in local neurosurgery training and continuing medical education. Focus on affordable and low-maintenance technology is needed.

scholarly journals China

2021 ◽  
pp. 133-156
Author(s):  
Shi Li ◽  
Terry Sicular ◽  
Finn Tarp
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Rent Seeking ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Welfare Policies ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Labour Absorption

This chapter describes the major trends in China’s income inequality over the past forty years and explains them as the outcome of four interleaved stories. The first story is a standard development story characterized by structural change, market development, labour absorption, and the Kuznets inverted-U path of inequality. The second is the economic transition story, in which changes in income distribution result from the shift from plan to market. The third is incomplete transition, with opportunities for rent-seeking, corruption, and hidden income. The fourth is the story of government efforts to moderate inequality through social and welfare policies.

scholarly journals Are There Any Housing Bubbles in Turkey?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz ◽  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Hoşeng Bülbül
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
Turkish Lira

It is very important that the housing market, which meets the most basic need of people is needed for shelter from the past to the present, has a stable structure. The instability structure of the housing market is generally associated with the presence of housing bubbles. The deviation of housing prices from their basic value and not being able to be explained by economic fundamentals leads to the formation of housing bubbles. Housing bubbles can lead to permanent losses, as it may take a long time to return to normal prices. For Turkey as a developing country, it is important to identify an unstable structure in house prices discuss the basic economic factors related to this. After the global increases in housing prices, inflation, and depreciation in the Turkish lira, Turkey has become the country with the highest housing price increases globally in 2020. In the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, was investigated by SADF and GSADF unit root tests for the period 2010:01-2021:02. In this context, the study examines the presence of bubbles in housing prices for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, which are the three cities with the highest price increases. As a result of the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market has been determined for Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Turkey in general.

scholarly journals Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking Sector of Ghana: A Panel Co-integration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Appiah ◽  
Frank Bisiw
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The economic development of any nation hinges on the health of its financial system. In recent years, the health of the Ghanaian Banking sector has been affected severely as a result of high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which has been identified as a major threat to the overall profitability and survival of banks. To minimize the impact of NPLs on the financial sector, key stakeholders such as the government, bank officials and regulators are working hard in that regard. However, any policy response aimed at dealing with the high rate of non-performing loans first requires the understanding of the underlying determinants of NPLs. Against this backdrop, this paper apply panel co-integration techniques to investigate the determinants of credit risk (NPLs) in the banking sector of Ghana.  We use NPL as a proxy to measure credit risk and assess how it is influenced by macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. A balanced panel data of 16 universal banks in Ghana from 2010 to 2016 has been analyzed using Panel co-integration techniques such as Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our result shows that growth in the economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has significant influence on the NPLs of banks in the long-run. The results further revealed that capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity of banks are significant predictors of NPLs. However, our results suggest that bank size, inflation and interest rate have statistically insignificant influence on the NPLs of Ghanaian banks. The study recommend, among others, that whereas it is important for government and policymakers to work to improve macroeconomic outcomes, banks should also improve their capital adequacy, profitability, and efficiency position as these bank-specific interventions could significantly improve credit quality and minimize NPLs.

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