scholarly journals Quantifying Information and Uncertainty

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (10) ◽  
pp. 3650-3680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Frankel ◽  
Emir Kamenica
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
The State ◽  
Information Revelation ◽  
Explicit Formulas ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Payment Schemes ◽  
Utility Loss ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty ◽  
Delay Information

We examine ways to measure the amount of information generated by a piece of news and the amount of uncertainty implicit in a given belief. Say a measure of information is valid if it corresponds to the value of news in some decision problem. Say a measure of uncertainty is valid if it corresponds to expected utility loss from not knowing the state in some decision problem. We axiomatically characterize all valid measures of information and uncertainty. We show that if measures of information and uncertainty arise from the same decision problem, then they are coupled in that the expected reduction in uncertainty always equals the expected amount of information generated. We provide explicit formulas for the measure of information that is coupled with any given measure of uncertainty and vice versa. Finally, we show that valid measures of information are the only payment schemes that never provide incentives to delay information revelation. (JEL D81, D83)

Rate modulation in dams and ruin problems

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Søren Asmussen ◽  
Offer Kella
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Release Rate ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Limiting Distribution ◽  
Process Conditions ◽  
Explicit Formulas ◽  
Rate Modulation ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Finite State Space

We consider a dam in which the release rate depends both on the state and some modulating process. Conditions for the existence of a limiting distribution are established in terms of an associated risk process. The case where the release rate is a product of the state and the modulating process is given special attention, and in particular explicit formulas are obtained for a finite state space Markov modulation.

The Once-ler Problem: Introduction to Decision Trees

2019 ◽  
pp. 353-368
Author(s):  
Therese M. Donovan ◽  
Ruth M. Mickey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Bayes Theorem ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
The Lorax

In the “Once-ler Problem,” the decision tree is introduced as a very useful technique that can be used to answer a variety of questions and assist in making decisions. This chapter builds on the “Lorax Problem” introduced in Chapter 19, where Bayesian networks were introduced. A decision tree is a graphical representation of the alternatives in a decision. It is closely related to Bayesian networks except that the decision problem takes the shape of a tree instead. The tree itself consists of decision nodes, chance nodes, and end nodes, which provide an outcome. In a decision tree, probabilities associated with chance nodes are conditional probabilities, which Bayes’ Theorem can be used to estimate or update. The calculation of expected values (or expected utility) of competing alternative decisions is provided on a step-by-step basis with an example from The Lorax.

scholarly journals TO THE QUESTION OF ANALYSIS OF ACTIVITIES AND STATUS OF INCOME AND EXPENDITURE OF THE ORGANIZATION IN THE SPHERE OF SERVICES

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (6(75)) ◽  
pp. 20-29
Author(s):  
G.R. Taisheva ◽  
N.Yu. Eliseev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
School Children ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Educational Services ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Comprehensive Development

The modern world is characterized by an era of modernization, globalization, a large amount of information and increased employment of the economically active population. An increasing proportion of parents are trying to send their pre-school children to different sections for comprehensive development. Since most organizations that provide leisure and educational services are subsidized by the state, an attempt has been made to review their activities and analyze popular leisure activities of the younger generation from the point of view of economic analysis of income and expenses.

Occurrence of Arcellidae (Amorphea, Arcellinida) in a coastal stream in the State of Rio de Janeiro

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. e52710
Author(s):  
Viviane Bernardes dos Santos Miranda ◽  
Tatiane Mantovano ◽  
Yemna Gomes da Silva ◽  
Fábio Amodêo Lansac-Tôha ◽  
Rosana Mazzoni
Keyword(s):  
Species Identification ◽  
New Taxa ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Testate Amoebae ◽  
The State ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
The Family ◽  
Coastal Streams

The aim of this study was to elaborate a taxonomic survey on the testate amoebae of the Family Arcellidae in coastal streams in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Six samplings were conducted in Ubatiba coastal stream (Maricá, RJ). In total, 130 liters water were filtered through a conical net of 60-μm mesh and preserved in 4% formalin. Organisms were identified with the aid of an inverted trinocular microscope. The morphological characteristics (lobose testate amoebae with shell composed of granular chitinoid elements) of each species were recorded. The species were described and illustrated. For the verification of new taxa records of Arcellidae in Rio de Janeiro and their distribution in Brazil, a search based on index articles by Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar using the keywords "tecamebas", "testate amoebae", "Arcella", "Arcellidae", "Brazil" and "Rio de Janeiro", was performed. Eight Arcellidae species were recorded. Some ecological and taxonomic information was provided. Due to the small amount of information on testate amoebae, this study is important because it reduces the knowledge gap regarding this community in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, we suggest new studies on species identification to be conducted to expand regional knowledge about these organisms.

Rational Management of Risks

2020 ◽  
pp. 112-135
Author(s):  
Paul Weirich
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
The Other ◽  
First Principle ◽  
Rational Management ◽  
As If

The literature on expected utility formulates in two ways the principle to maximize expected utility. One version of the principle requires choices that literally maximize expected utility. The other version requires choices that are “as if” maximizing expected utility. The first principle is substantive and applies to a single choice. The second principle is representational and applies to a set of choices; it requires only a type of consistency among choices and is weaker than the first, substantive principle. The justification of the substantive version of the principle is that following it amounts to following preferences among the options in a decision problem. The justification takes an option’s risk as a consequence of the option’s realization. Making this move yields a simple decision principle, using evaluations of options that do not add weights to the probabilities or the utilities of an option’s possible outcomes.

What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980

1984 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 496-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Huth ◽  
Bruce Russett
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
The State ◽  
Utility Model ◽  
Political Ties ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Extended Deterrence ◽  
Expected Utility Model ◽  
The Military ◽  
Military Balance

The article develops an expected-utility model of extended deterrence and tests it on 54 historical cases. Successful deterrence is associated with close economic and political ties between the defender and the state it is trying to protect, and with a local military balance in favor of the defender. Deterrence success is not systematically associated with the presence of a military alliance, with the overall strategic military balance, with possession of nuclear weapons, or with the defender's firmness or lack of it in previous crises. If deterrence fails, only alliance and the military value of the state under attack are associated with the defender's willingness to go to war.

scholarly journals Parameter Uncertainty in Multiperiod Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1443-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor DeMiguel ◽  
Alberto Martín-Utrera ◽  
Francisco J. Nogales
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Transaction Cost ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Utility Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Variance

AbstractWe study the impact of parameter uncertainty on the expected utility of a multiperiod investor subject to quadratic transaction costs. We characterize the utility loss associated with ignoring parameter uncertainty, and show that it is equal to the product between the single-period utility loss and another term that captures the effects of the multiperiod mean-variance utility and transaction cost losses. To mitigate the impact of parameter uncertainty, we propose two multiperiod shrinkage portfolios and demonstrate with simulated and empirical data sets that they substantially outperform portfolios that ignore parameter uncertainty, transaction costs, or both.

scholarly journals A Measure of Information Available for Inference

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Isomura
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Free Energy ◽  
Sensory Input ◽  
External World ◽  
The State ◽  
Energy Principle ◽  
Free Energy Principle ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Variational Free Energy ◽  
The Neural Network

The mutual information between the state of a neural network and the state of the external world represents the amount of information stored in the neural network that is associated with the external world. In contrast, the surprise of the sensory input indicates the unpredictability of the current input. In other words, this is a measure of inference ability, and an upper bound of the surprise is known as the variational free energy. According to the free-energy principle (FEP), a neural network continuously minimizes the free energy to perceive the external world. For the survival of animals, inference ability is considered to be more important than simply memorized information. In this study, the free energy is shown to represent the gap between the amount of information stored in the neural network and that available for inference. This concept involves both the FEP and the infomax principle, and will be a useful measure for quantifying the amount of information available for inference.

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