Confounding, Reverse Causation, and Ecological Fallacy

2014 ◽  
pp. 80-105
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Fallacy ◽  
Reverse Causation

scholarly journals Increased risk of preeclampsia after use of paracetamol during pregnancy – causal or coincidence?

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hetti von Hellens ◽  
Leea Keski-Nisula ◽  
Heidi Sahlman
Keyword(s):  
Third Trimester ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Gestational Period ◽  
The Third ◽  
Precise Data ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Study Population ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Of Preeclampsia

Abstract Background The maternal use of paracetamol during pregnancy has been associated with the development of preeclampsia. This study aims to clarify whether the connection is causal or whether it is due to reverse causation. Methods This study is a continuation of the retrospective case cohort study examining 2,508 pregnant women using a variety of drugs and the development of preeclampsia (1,252 women with preeclampsia and 1,256 controls). For the purposes of this study, more precise data was collected from several hospital databases of the women among this cohort who had reported taking paracetamol during pregnancy (indications, gestational period etc.); this was evaluated in association with the development of preeclampsia. Results 5.5% (100 cases and 37 controls) of all the study population (2,508) had clearly reported paracetamol use. Women with preeclampsia had used significantly more often paracetamol during pregnancy compared to controls (cases 8.0%, controls 2.9%, p < 0.001). The difference was most evident in the third trimester (after the 29th GW) and the use of paracetamol was associated with both mild and severe preeclampsia. Headache and “general pain” were the most common indications for medication among all paracetamol users. Conclusions The use of paracetamol in the third trimester of pregnancy was associated with preeclampsia. This observation indicates that association between paracetamol use and preeclampsia is probably due to reverse causation, i.e. women with preeclampsia experience more headaches due to preeclampsia symptoms since this association was not detected with the use of paracetamol in earlier stages of pregnancy.

scholarly journals Genre-Specific Cultivation Effects

2010 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 731-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chul-joo Lee ◽  
Jeff Niederdeppe
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Prevention ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Cultivation Theory ◽  
Tv Viewing ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Local Television ◽  
Causal Direction ◽  
Tv News ◽  
National Representative Survey ◽  
Practical Implications

Cultivation theory and research have been criticized for their failures to consider variation in effects by genre, employ appropriate third-variable controls, and determine causal direction. Recent studies, controlling for a variety of demographic characteristics and media use variables, have found that exposure to local television (TV) newscasts is associated with a variety of problematic “real-world” beliefs. However, many of these studies have not adequately assessed causal direction. Redressing this limitation, we analyzed data from a two-wave national representative survey which permitted tests of lagged association between overall TV viewing, local TV news viewing, and fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention. We first replicated the original cultivation effect and found a positive association between overall TV viewing at Time 1 and increased fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention at Time 2. Analyses also provided evidence that local TV news viewing at Time 1 predicts increased fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention at Time 2. There was little evidence for reverse causation in predicting changes in overall TV viewing or local TV news viewing. The article concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

scholarly journals Big knowledge from big data in functional genomics

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris P. Ponting
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Molecular Interactions ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Single Cells ◽  
Human Biology ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Downstream Effects ◽  
Dna Variants ◽  
Cellular Phenotypes ◽  
Why Questions

With so much genomics data being produced, it might be wise to pause and consider what purpose this data can or should serve. Some improve annotations, others predict molecular interactions, but few add directly to existing knowledge. This is because sequence annotations do not always implicate function, and molecular interactions are often irrelevant to a cell's or organism's survival or propagation. Merely correlative relationships found in big data fail to provide answers to the Why questions of human biology. Instead, those answers are expected from methods that causally link DNA changes to downstream effects without being confounded by reverse causation. These approaches require the controlled measurement of the consequences of DNA variants, for example, either those introduced in single cells using CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing or that are already present across the human population. Inferred causal relationships between genetic variation and cellular phenotypes or disease show promise to rapidly grow and underpin our knowledge base.

scholarly journals Are environmental risk factors for current wheeze in the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) phase three due to reverse causation?

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 430-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Silverwood ◽  
Charlotte E. Rutter ◽  
Edwin A. Mitchell ◽  
M. Innes Asher ◽  
Luis Garcia‐Marcos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
International Study ◽  
Environmental Risk Factors ◽  
Reverse Causation

scholarly journals The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on State Suicide Rates: Revisited

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Mitch Kunce
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Factors ◽  
State Level ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Ecological Fallacy ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Varia Tions

Abstract This paper revisits the purported impact of socioeconomic and social environment factors on annual, U.S. state-level suicide rates. Special attention is paid to the right-hand-side linking covariates directly to Durkheim's (1897/1951) significant contributions to established ecological suicide research. Results from a Haus-man-Taylor panel specification lend little support to Durkheim's social integra-tion/regulation hypothesis that aggregate social forces matter in explaining varia-tions in regional suicide rates. Data from 1990-2019 and the advanced empirical method support the mounting sentiment of an abiding ecological fallacy plaguing suicidology. JEL classification numbers: C51, R11, I31. Keywords: Hausman-Taylor, Suicide rates, Socioeconomic factors.

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