Understanding the ecological fallacy

Abstract This paper revisits the purported impact of socioeconomic and social environment factors on annual, U.S. state-level suicide rates. Special attention is paid to the right-hand-side linking covariates directly to Durkheim's (1897/1951) significant contributions to established ecological suicide research. Results from a Haus-man-Taylor panel specification lend little support to Durkheim's social integra-tion/regulation hypothesis that aggregate social forces matter in explaining varia-tions in regional suicide rates. Data from 1990-2019 and the advanced empirical method support the mounting sentiment of an abiding ecological fallacy plaguing suicidology. JEL classification numbers: C51, R11, I31. Keywords: Hausman-Taylor, Suicide rates, Socioeconomic factors.

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The closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19? Cautions regarding ecological studies of COVID-19

10.1101/2020.04.23.20077008 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Shuai Li ◽

Xinyang Hua

Keyword(s):

European Country ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Ecological Fallacy ◽

Group Level ◽

Ecological Studies ◽

Public Concern ◽

Individual Level ◽

The Public ◽

Country Level ◽

Level Data

AbstractSeveral ecological studies of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have reported correlations between group-level aggregated exposures and COVID-19 outcomes. While some studies might be helpful in generating new hypotheses related to COVID-19, results of such type of studies should be interpreted with cautions. To illustrate how ecological studies and results could be biased, we conducted an ecological study of COVID-19 outcomes and the distance to Brussels using European country-level data. We found that, the distance was negatively correlated with COVID-19 outcomes; every 100 km away from Brussels was associated with approximately 6% to 17% reductions (all P<0.01) in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe. Without cautions, such results could be interpreted as the closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19 in Europe. However, these results are more likely to reflect the differences in the timing of and the responding to the outbreak, etc. between European countries, rather than the ‘effect’ of the distance to Brussels itself. Associations observed at the group level have limitations to reflect individual-level associations – the so-called ecological fallacy. Given the public concern over COVID-19, ecological studies should be conducted and interpreted with great cautions, in case the results would be mistakenly understood.

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