scholarly journals Spatial Combination Modeling Framework of Saturation-Excess and Infiltration-Excess Runoff for Semihumid Watersheds

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengnian Huang ◽  
Zhijia Li ◽  
Cheng Yao ◽  
Qiaoling Li ◽  
Meichun Yan
Keyword(s):  
Difficult Problem ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Saturation Excess

There exist two types of direct runoff generation mechanisms in semihumid watersheds: saturation-excess mechanism and infiltration-excess mechanism. It has always been a difficult problem for event hydrological simulation to distinguish the two types of runoff processes. Based on the concept of dominant runoff processes, combined with GIS and RS techniques, this paper proposed an event-based spatial combination modeling framework and built two spatial combination models (SCMs) accordingly. The CN parameter and topographic index, both of which are widely used in hydrological researches, are adopted by the SCM to divide the entire watershed into infiltration-excess dominated (IED) areas and saturation-excess dominated (SED) areas. Dongwan watershed was taken as an example to test the performances of infiltration-excess model, saturation-excess model, and SCM, respectively. The results of parameter optimization showed that the parameter values and state variables of SCM are much more realistic than those of infiltration-excess model and saturation-excess model. The more accurate the divisions of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess dominated areas, the more realistic the SCM parameter values. The simulation results showed that the performance of SCM was improved in both calibration and validation periods. The framework is useful for flood forecasting in semihumid watersheds.

scholarly journals Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparison between Continuous and Event-Based Modeling of Streamflow Based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xie ◽  
Zhenyao Shen ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Xijun Lai ◽  
Jiali Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Simulation Program ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
Event Based

Hydrologic modeling is usually applied to two scenarios: continuous and event-based modeling, between which hydrologists often neglect the significant differences in model application. In this study, a comparison-based procedure concerning parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is presented based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) model. Calibrated parameters related to base flow and moisture distribution showed marked differences between the continuous and event-based modeling. Results of the regionalized sensitivity analysis identified event-dependent parameters and showed that gravity drainage and storage outflow were the primary runoff generation processes for both scenarios. The overall performance of the event-based simulation was better than that of the daily simulation for streamflow based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE analysis also indicated that the performance of the continuous model was limited by several extreme events and low flows. In the event-based scenario, the HSPF model performances decreased as the precipitation became intense in the event-based modeling. The structure error of the HSFP model was recognized at the initial phase of the rainfall-event period. This study presents a valuable opportunity to understand dominant controls in different hydrologic scenario and guide the application of the HSPF model.

scholarly journals Response of the parameters of excess infiltration and excess storage model to land use cover change

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuexiu Wen ◽  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Guodong Zhang ◽  
Shengqi Jian
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Generation Mechanisms

AbstractThe Loess Plateau is the main source of water in Yellow River, China. After 1980s, the Yellow river water presented a significant reduction, what caused the decrease of the Yellow river discharge had been debated in academic circles. We proceeded with runoff generation mechanisms to explain this phenomenon. We built saturation excess runoff and infiltration excess runoff generation mechanisms for rainfall–runoff simulation in Jingle sub-basin of Fen River basin on the Loess Plateau, to reveal the influence of land use change on flood processes and studied the changes of model parameters under different underlying conditions. The results showed that the runoff generation mechanism was mainly infiltration-excess overland flow, but the flood events of saturation-excess overland flow had an increasing trend because of land use cover change (the increase of forestland and grassland areas and the reduction of cultivated land). Some of the model parameters had physical significances，such as water storage capacity (WM), infiltration capacity (f), evapotranspiration (CKE), soil permeability coefficient (k) and index of storage capacity distribution curve (n) showed increasing trends, and index of infiltration capacity distribution curve (m) showed a decreasing trend. The above results proved the changes of runoff generation mechanism from the perspective of model parameters in Jingle sub-basin, which can provide a new perspective for understanding the discharge reduction in the Yellow River basin.

scholarly journals Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River Basin with the HEC-HMS model

2019 ◽  
pp. 33-60
Author(s):  
Ranka Eric ◽  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic ◽  
Vesna Djukic
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Event Based

Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Mercez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either ?present? or ?past?, and ?spring? or ?summer? group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with ?spring? parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.

scholarly journals Marine boundary layer cloud regimes and POC formation in a CRM coupled to a bulk aerosol scheme

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 12549-12572 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Berner ◽  
C. S. Bretherton ◽  
R. Wood ◽  
A. Muhlbauer
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Boundary Layer Cloud ◽  
Cloud Regimes ◽  
Layer Cloud

Abstract. A cloud-resolving model (CRM) coupled to a new intermediate-complexity bulk aerosol scheme is used to study aerosol–boundary-layer–cloud–precipitation interactions and the development of pockets of open cells (POCs) in subtropical stratocumulus cloud layers. The aerosol scheme prognoses mass and number concentration of a single lognormal accumulation mode with surface and entrainment sources, evolving subject to processing of activated aerosol and scavenging of dry aerosol by clouds and rain. The CRM with the aerosol scheme is applied to a range of steadily forced cases idealized from a well-observed POC. The long-term system evolution is explored with extended two-dimensional (2-D) simulations of up to 20 days, mostly with diurnally averaged insolation and 24 km wide domains, and one 10 day three-dimensional (3-D) simulation. Both 2-D and 3-D simulations support the Baker–Charlson hypothesis of two distinct aerosol–cloud "regimes" (deep/high-aerosol/non-drizzling and shallow/low-aerosol/drizzling) that persist for days; transitions between these regimes, driven by either precipitation scavenging or aerosol entrainment from the free-troposphere (FT), occur on a timescale of ten hours. The system is analyzed using a two-dimensional phase plane with inversion height and boundary layer average aerosol concentrations as state variables; depending on the specified subsidence rate and availability of FT aerosol, these regimes are either stable equilibria or distinct legs of a slow limit cycle. The same steadily forced modeling framework is applied to the coupled development and evolution of a POC and the surrounding overcast boundary layer in a larger 192 km wide domain. An initial 50% aerosol reduction is applied to half of the model domain. This has little effect until the stratocumulus thickens enough to drizzle, at which time the low-aerosol portion transitions into open-cell convection, forming a POC. Reduced entrainment in the POC induces a negative feedback between the areal fraction covered by the POC and boundary layer depth changes. This stabilizes the system by controlling liquid water path and precipitation sinks of aerosol number in the overcast region, while also preventing boundary layer collapse within the POC, allowing the POC and overcast to coexist indefinitely in a quasi-steady equilibrium.

scholarly journals Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Coustau ◽  
S. Ricci ◽  
V. Borrell-Estupina ◽  
C. Bouvier ◽  
O. Thual
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Event Based ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

scholarly journals Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models Using Global Optimization

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Ru-bin Wang ◽  
Qing-xiang Meng
Keyword(s):  
Global Optimization ◽  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
True Parameter ◽  
Shuffled Complex Evolution ◽  
Structure Lead ◽  
Parameter Values

Parameter optimization for the conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) model has always been the difficult problem in hydrology since watershed hydrological model is high-dimensional and nonlinear with multimodal and nonconvex response surface and its parameters are obviously related and complementary. In the research presented here, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) global optimization method was used to calibrate the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model. We defined the ideal data and applied the method to observed data. Our results show that, in the case of ideal data, the data length did not affect the parameter optimization for the hydrological model. If the objective function was selected appropriately, the proposed method found the true parameter values. In the case of observed data, we applied the technique to different lengths of data (1, 2, and 3 years) and compared the results with ideal data. We found that errors in the data and model structure lead to significant uncertainties in the parameter optimization.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of point scale surface runoff predictions to rainfall resolution

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 965-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Hearman ◽  
C. Hinz
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Point Scale ◽  
Deep Drainage ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Saturation Excess

Abstract. This paper investigates the effects of using non-linear, high resolution rainfall, compared to time averaged rainfall on the triggering of hydrologic thresholds and therefore model predictions of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff at the point scale. The bounded random cascade model, parameterized to three locations in Western Australia, was used to scale rainfall intensities at various time resolutions ranging from 1.875 min to 2 h. A one dimensional, conceptual rainfall partitioning model was used that instantaneously partitioned water into infiltration excess, infiltration, storage, deep drainage, saturation excess and surface runoff, where the fluxes into and out of the soil store were controlled by thresholds. The results of the numerical modelling were scaled by relating soil infiltration properties to soil draining properties, and in turn, relating these to average storm intensities. For all soil types, we related maximum infiltration capacities to average storm intensities (k*) and were able to show where model predictions of infiltration excess were most sensitive to rainfall resolution (ln k*=0.4) and where using time averaged rainfall data can lead to an under prediction of infiltration excess and an over prediction of the amount of water entering the soil (ln k*>2) for all three rainfall locations tested. For soils susceptible to both infiltration excess and saturation excess, total runoff sensitivity was scaled by relating drainage coefficients to average storm intensities (g*) and parameter ranges where predicted runoff was dominated by infiltration excess or saturation excess depending on the resolution of rainfall data were determined (ln g*<2). Infiltration excess predicted from high resolution rainfall was short and intense, whereas saturation excess produced from low resolution rainfall was more constant and less intense. This has important implications for the accuracy of current hydrological models that use time averaged rainfall under these soil and rainfall conditions and predictions of larger scale phenomena such as hillslope runoff and runon. It offers insight into how rainfall resolution can affect predicted amounts of water entering the soil and thus soil water storage and drainage, possibly changing our understanding of the ecological functioning of the system or predictions of agri-chemical leaching. The application of this sensitivity analysis to different rainfall regions in Western Australia showed that locations in the tropics with higher intensity rainfalls are more likely to have differences in infiltration excess predictions with different rainfall resolutions and that a general understanding of the prevailing rainfall conditions and the soil's infiltration capacity can help in deciding whether high rainfall resolutions (below 1 h) are required for accurate surface runoff predictions.

scholarly journals Observability and Structural Identifiability of Nonlinear Biological Systems

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro F. Villaverde
Keyword(s):  
Differential Geometry ◽  
Internal State ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Related Property ◽  
Theoretical Possibility ◽  
Structural Identifiability ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
Constant State ◽  
Parameter Values

Observability is a modelling property that describes the possibility of inferring the internal state of a system from observations of its output. A related property, structural identifiability, refers to the theoretical possibility of determining the parameter values from the output. In fact, structural identifiability becomes a particular case of observability if the parameters are considered as constant state variables. It is possible to simultaneously analyse the observability and structural identifiability of a model using the conceptual tools of differential geometry. Many complex biological processes can be described by systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and can therefore be analysed with this approach. The purpose of this review article is threefold: (I) to serve as a tutorial on observability and structural identifiability of nonlinear systems, using the differential geometry approach for their analysis; (II) to review recent advances in the field; and (III) to identify open problems and suggest new avenues for research in this area.

scholarly journals Best Fit and Selection of Theoretical Flood Frequency Distributions Based on Different Runoff Generation Mechanisms

Water ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Iacobellis ◽  
Mauro Fiorentino ◽  
Andrea Gioia ◽  
Salvatore Manfreda
Keyword(s):  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Selection Of
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