scholarly journals Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparison between Continuous and Event-Based Modeling of Streamflow Based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xie ◽  
Zhenyao Shen ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Xijun Lai ◽  
Jiali Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Simulation Program ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
Event Based

Hydrologic modeling is usually applied to two scenarios: continuous and event-based modeling, between which hydrologists often neglect the significant differences in model application. In this study, a comparison-based procedure concerning parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is presented based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) model. Calibrated parameters related to base flow and moisture distribution showed marked differences between the continuous and event-based modeling. Results of the regionalized sensitivity analysis identified event-dependent parameters and showed that gravity drainage and storage outflow were the primary runoff generation processes for both scenarios. The overall performance of the event-based simulation was better than that of the daily simulation for streamflow based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE analysis also indicated that the performance of the continuous model was limited by several extreme events and low flows. In the event-based scenario, the HSPF model performances decreased as the precipitation became intense in the event-based modeling. The structure error of the HSFP model was recognized at the initial phase of the rainfall-event period. This study presents a valuable opportunity to understand dominant controls in different hydrologic scenario and guide the application of the HSPF model.

scholarly journals Hydrological Modeling of the Paligad Watershed (India) Using HSFP Model

2019 ◽  
pp. 217-228
Author(s):  
Aamir Ishaq Shah ◽  
Sumit Sen ◽  
Anurag Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Simulation Program ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
Hydrological System ◽  
Set Up

For hydrological studies, it is well known that each hydrological system behaves differently and in order to effectively manage those systems, it is necessary to understand their behavior. The hydrological component of Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model was set up and calibrated for Paligad watershed which is a sub-basin of Aglar watershed in the Uttarakhand state of India. The calibration of the model was done manually and an expert advice system called as HSPEXP+ was used to aid calibration. The values of evaluation indicators such as coefficient of determination (

scholarly journals Spatial Combination Modeling Framework of Saturation-Excess and Infiltration-Excess Runoff for Semihumid Watersheds

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengnian Huang ◽  
Zhijia Li ◽  
Cheng Yao ◽  
Qiaoling Li ◽  
Meichun Yan
Keyword(s):  
Difficult Problem ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Saturation Excess

There exist two types of direct runoff generation mechanisms in semihumid watersheds: saturation-excess mechanism and infiltration-excess mechanism. It has always been a difficult problem for event hydrological simulation to distinguish the two types of runoff processes. Based on the concept of dominant runoff processes, combined with GIS and RS techniques, this paper proposed an event-based spatial combination modeling framework and built two spatial combination models (SCMs) accordingly. The CN parameter and topographic index, both of which are widely used in hydrological researches, are adopted by the SCM to divide the entire watershed into infiltration-excess dominated (IED) areas and saturation-excess dominated (SED) areas. Dongwan watershed was taken as an example to test the performances of infiltration-excess model, saturation-excess model, and SCM, respectively. The results of parameter optimization showed that the parameter values and state variables of SCM are much more realistic than those of infiltration-excess model and saturation-excess model. The more accurate the divisions of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess dominated areas, the more realistic the SCM parameter values. The simulation results showed that the performance of SCM was improved in both calibration and validation periods. The framework is useful for flood forecasting in semihumid watersheds.

Effects of model segmentation approach on the performance and parameters of the Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) models

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changan Yan ◽  
Wanchang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Simulation Program ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
Simulation Efficiency ◽  
Model Segmentation ◽  
Segmentation Approach ◽  
Static Sensitivity ◽  
Sensitivity Method

Although models are one of the most powerful tools for watershed management, their effectiveness is limited by prediction uncertainties resulting from not only model input data but also spatial discretization. In this paper, Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) models were constructed for the Linyi watershed according to three segmentation approaches including model segments based on differences in: (1) sub-watershed, (2) meteorological station, and (3) physical characteristics. Then the static sensitivity method and dynamic sensitivity method were employed to evaluate the effect of the segmentation approach on model performance and parameters of HSPF. The main conclusions were: (1) modeling with 12 segments had the best simulation efficiency and the corresponding estimated parameters had a certain representation within the Linyi watershed; (2) HSPF model performance was significantly affected by the segmentation approach, especially by the model segmentation construction process which considering a meteorological station or not; (3) parameters INTFW (interflow inflow parameter), lower zone nominal storage, and upper zone nominal storage (UZSN) were most affected by the model segmentation approach, while parameter AGWRC (groundwater recession coefficient) changed indistinctly; (4) parameters UZSN and INTFW had the same variation tendency whenever the segmentation approach changed.

An integrated mechanistic modeling of a facultative pond: Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 170-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long T. Ho ◽  
Andres Alvarado ◽  
Josue Larriva ◽  
Cassia Pompeu ◽  
Peter Goethals
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Mechanistic Modeling

scholarly journals Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 723-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zili He ◽  
Zhi Wang ◽  
C. John Suen ◽  
Xiaoyi Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
San Joaquin River ◽  
San Joaquin River Watershed

To examine the hydrological system sensitivity of the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California to climate change scenarios (CCS), five headwater basins in the snow-dominated Upper San Joaquin River Watershed (USJRW) were selected for hydrologic simulations using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. A pre-specified set of CCS as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were adopted as inputs for the hydrologic analysis. These scenarios include temperature increases between 1.5 and 4.5 °C and precipitation variation between 80 and 120% of the baseline conditions. The HSPF model was calibrated and validated with measured historical data. It was then used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the watershed to the projected CCS. Results indicate that the streamflow of USJRW is sensitive to the projected climate change. The total volume of annual streamflow would vary between −41 and +16% compared to the baseline years (1970–1990). Even if the precipitation remains unchanged, the total annual flow would still decrease by 8–23% due to temperature increases. A larger portion of the streamflow would occur earlier in the water year by 15–46 days due to the temperature increases, causing higher seasonal variability of streamflow.

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