scholarly journals The Study of a Mathematical Model in Information Acquisition and Disclosure

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ce Huang
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Disclosure Strategy ◽  
Withholding Information

A mathematical model involving a decision maker and an expert is investigated. Through analyzing the model, we obtain several results on the expert’s information acquisition and disclosure strategy. When withholding information is costly to the expert, in equilibrium, an expert with a higher withholding cost acquires less information but discloses more acquired information. We also examine which expert is optimal to the decision maker among a group of experts with different costs of withholding information.

scholarly journals The Effect of Adopting New Storage Methods for Extending Product Validity Periods on Manufacturers Expected Inventory Costs

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Po-Yu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Aluminum Foil ◽  
Demand Functions ◽  
Inventory Costs ◽  
Fresh Food ◽  
Cycle Lengths ◽  
Storage Methods ◽  
Glass Packaging

The validness of the expiration dates (validity period) that manufacturers provide on food product labels is a crucial food safety problem. Governments must study how to use their authority by implementing fair awards and punishments to prompt manufacturers into adopting rigorous considerations, such as the effect of adopting new storage methods for extending product validity periods on expected costs. Assuming that a manufacturer sells fresh food or drugs, this manufacturer must respond to current stochastic demands at each unit of time to determine the purchase amount of products for sale. If this decision maker is capable and an opportunity arises, new packaging methods (e.g., aluminum foil packaging, vacuum packaging, high-temperature sterilization after glass packaging, or packaging with various degrees of dryness) or storage methods (i.e., adding desiccants or various antioxidants) can be chosen to extend the validity periods of products. To minimize expected costs, this decision maker must be aware of the processing costs of new storage methods, inventory standards, inventory cycle lengths, and changes in relationships between factors such as stochastic demand functions in a cycle. Based on these changes in relationships, this study established a mathematical model as a basis for discussing the aforementioned topics.

scholarly journals Adaptación del sistema táctico de inteligencia para la toma de decisiones militares ante una pandemia

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (26) ◽  
pp. 14-22
Author(s):  
Eider Yovanny Vargas
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Administrative Support ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Rapid Adaptation ◽  
Process Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Toma De Decisiones ◽  
The Military ◽  
Available Resources

The purpose of this work is to identify a tool that allows a military decision maker at the tactical level to manage the military resources available in the event of a pandemic. The research focused on finding and adapting an epidemiological mathematical model to process data collected in a military jurisdiction and with it the development of prospective scenarios in a military jurisdiction in the event of a pandemic. The results indicate that in the face of a pandemic, military decision makers must have a model of prospective scenarios and the adaptation of the intelligence process, especially the means of searching for information and the recording and analysis instruments to diligently manage the available resources. It is concluded that, given the appearance of a pandemic in a place with geographical conditions that hinder rapid accessibility and administrative support, military decision makers require a procedure that allows rapid adaptation to the new tactical scenario.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of Communication with Reputational Concerns

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ce Huang ◽  
Yuanyuan Zhang ◽  
Chong Lai
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
The One ◽  
Reputational Concerns

We investigate a mathematical model where an expert advises a decision maker for two periods. The decision maker is initially unsure about whether the expert is biased or not. After consulting the expert on the decision problem of period one, the decision maker updates belief about the expert’s bias and consults the expert on the problem of period two. We find that more information is delivered in the model’s first period than in the one-period situation of communication.

A New Mathematical Model Toward Project Selection-A Case Study

2011 ◽  
Vol 110-116 ◽  
pp. 2958-2962
Author(s):  
Hamed Rafiei ◽  
Farzad Radmehr ◽  
Masoud Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Solution Method ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Project Selection ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Optimum Solution

This paper includes project selection problem. Indeed, decision maker wants to select some projects among a group of projects with considering the resource constraints or he/she wants to reach a sequence of projects for doing them. We consider an objective for selecting the projects: minimizing the deviations from optimum solution. We study our models and solution method by a case study from Iran. This solution method is based on goal programming. The results show the efficiency of model and solution method and a chart has been shown for analyzing the results and seeing the sequence of projects. Finally, we propose future researches and generation of problem.

scholarly journals Pemecahan Problem Efisiensi Faktor Produksi dengan Metode Linear Programming

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Surahman Surahman
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Linear Programming ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Real Condition ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Mathematical Model

<p>The problem solving of the production element efficiency by using linear programming can be done by formulating the mathematical model. The principles that have to be kept first are:</p><ol><li>The whole set of the problems can be divided into activity parts.</li><li>Each of the activities must have been determined precisely (about the quantity)</li><li>The quantity must have devided precisely</li><li>The limit of the capacity should be determined</li><li>Making the model</li></ol><p>After that, the next step is finding the solution. However, one thing to remember is that the problem solving using linear programming is only a medium. About the application depends on the decision maker or the user that will not be out from the real condition.</p>

scholarly journals MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR OPERATIONAL GROUPS OF THE FIRE AND RESCUE GARRISON

T-Comm ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Natalia V. Rozhkova ◽  
◽  
Andrei A. Strakholes ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Task Force ◽  
The State ◽  
Reliable Information ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Fire Extinguishing ◽  
Operational Group

Support for management decision-making in emergencies (firefighting), in uncertain conditions of its occurrence and uncertainty of its development is necessary for the organization of optimal distribution of the forces and resources of operational units involved in firefighting, and the knowledge of the Manager. The process of our research is limited only to the case of fire. Taking into account the fact that the data in the fire-extinguishing card does not always coincide with the state of the object where the fire occurred and the unpredictability of the direction of fire propagation, the decision-maker in this situation will organize work to obtain reliable information. These features allow us to consider the object where the fire occurred as a complex system. In this case, the main difficulty of information and analytical support for operational groups, as a management entity, is that at the first stage, the decision-maker in the operational group, without having complete reliable information, organizes its clarification. With the correct organization of their work, the task force ensures maximum efficiency of using the units of the Ministry of emergencies of Russia, when solving their combat tasks. At the same time, it can collect information about an emergency when it receives a notification of its occurrence, as well as on the way of the operational units to the specified area. The issues that determine the development of documents in different periods of the operational situation are considered, and the actions of the decision-maker in the operational group during fire extinguishing are highlighted separately. In this mathematical model, in which the transition of the system from the state of “fire occurrence” to the state of “fire extinguished” is modeled, the properties of a continuous Markov process are used. The solution of Kolmogorov’s system of differential equations determines the probability that characterizes the competence of the decision-maker in the task force.

scholarly journals Successive waves of COVID 19: confinement effects on virus-prevalence with a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Abdalla ◽  
Duaa Bakhshwin ◽  
W. Shirbeeny ◽  
Ahmed Bakhshwin ◽  
F. Bahabri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Maximum Point ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Usa

Abstract Background A pandemic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID 19) incidence data are largely available online. Until August 17, COVID 19 has hit more than 22 million individuals all over the globe. So, it is urged to get clear information about the prevalence of the virus. Therefore, one can manipulate easily a suitable mathematical model to fit these published data. Methods We propose a mathematical model that considers the total population, in 25 countries, either infected by COVID 19 or confined (safe) during the period from November 17, 2019, to August 17, 2020. The model considers the total population as a complex number; the imaginary part is the number of infected individuals and the real part is the number of confined individuals. This classification combined with mathematical treatments leads to a transmission dynamics of the virus to be as wave-like motion. The virus can hit any country either by one wave or by successive waves (up to 11 waves). Findings We find net discrimination between the 25 countries investigated in this report. The immediate response to the first attack is a substantial parameter to determine whether the epidemic attack will be in one wave or it can be in successive waves. For example, the best case was such as individuals in China hit by one wave while the individuals in the USA were attacked by nine waves; it is the worst case all over the globe. In addition, the model differentiates between the daily reproduction numbers (Rd0) and the median reproduction number (R0). We have found that Rd0 decreases exponentially with time from high values down to zero at the wave maximum point; and R0 varies from a country to another. For example, the virus hit individuals in Germany in R0 = 1.39 (96% CI 1.01–3.87) and in the USA R0 = 3.81 (91% CI 1.71–5.15). We have found that twice the virus has hit both the USA and Iran. The great protestation of black matter lives in the USA and the great assemblage of the new Iranian year, on March 21, 2020, have been the cause of the second epidemic attack in both countries. Interpretation Our results show that COVID 19 transmission depends on the prompt reaction against the first viral-wave. The reaction depends on both the social behaviour of individuals and on the swift system-decision by the governmental decision-maker(s). The Chinese strictly follow the decision-maker and therefore the virus hit by only one wave; while in the USA, the system-decision was different and the American-responses were different, therefore ten waves followed the first wave.

No decision-maker is an Island: integrating expert advice with information acquisition

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar E. Schrah ◽  
Reeshad S. Dalal ◽  
Janet A. Sniezek
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Expert Advice

scholarly journals Bias and Negligence with Freedom of Information

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (624) ◽  
pp. 2979-2998
Author(s):  
Rossella Argenziano ◽  
Helen Weeds
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Freedom Of Information ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Costly Information ◽  
The Cost

Abstract We analyse decision-making in the presence of Freedom of Information (FOI) rules. A decision-maker chooses whether to acquire costly information to inform his decision regarding a policy action. If information is not disclosed voluntarily a monitor may open a costly investigation, using FOI to access the information. A finding of biased decision-making or negligence in information acquisition generates a reward to the monitor and a penalty to the decision-maker. We find that strengthening FOI to reduce the cost of investigation may increase negligence without necessarily reducing bias. Moreover, increasing the reward for discovering negligence can paradoxically increase negligence in equilibrium.

Analyst Information Acquisition and Communication

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 1985-2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul E. Fischer ◽  
Phillip C. Stocken
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Public Information

ABSTRACT: We examine a communication game between an analyst and a decision-maker and investigate how the presence of public information affects the precision of the information the analyst gathers and communicates to the decision-maker. We characterize conditions under which public information causes the analyst to underinvest or overinvest in the information gathered relative to the case where analyst credibility is not an issue. We then discuss when the presence of public information causes the analyst to reduce the depth of coverage of the firm, suggesting that the introduction of public information can make the decision-maker strictly worse off.

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