scholarly journals Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Cartella ◽  
Jan Lemeire ◽  
Luca Dimiccoli ◽  
Hichem Sahli
Keyword(s):  
Markov Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Average Absolute Error ◽  
Current State ◽  
Automatic Model Selection ◽  
State Duration ◽  
Useful Lifetime

Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) with (i) no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii) being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of the machine is calculated.

A COMPARISON OF SCORING METRICS FOR PREDICTING THE NEXT NAVIGATION STEP WITH MARKOV MODEL-BASED SYSTEMS

2010 ◽  
Vol 09 (04) ◽  
pp. 547-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSÉ BORGES ◽  
MARK LEVENE
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
The Impact

The problem of predicting the next request during a user's navigation session has been extensively studied. In this context, higher-order Markov models have been widely used to model navigation sessions and to predict the next navigation step, while prediction accuracy has been mainly evaluated with the hit and miss score. We claim that this score, although useful, is not sufficient for evaluating next link prediction models with the aim of finding a sufficient order of the model, the size of a recommendation set, and assessing the impact of unexpected events on the prediction accuracy. Herein, we make use of a variable length Markov model to compare the usefulness of three alternatives to the hit and miss score: the Mean Absolute Error, the Ignorance Score, and the Brier score. We present an extensive evaluation of the methods on real data sets and a comprehensive comparison of the scoring methods.

scholarly journals Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models

Genus ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Schoen
Keyword(s):  
Markov Models ◽  
General Procedure ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Cross Product ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Duration ◽  
Markov Transition ◽  
Data Limitations

AbstractThe risk of many demographic events varies by both current state and duration in that state. However, the use of such semi-Markov models has been substantially constrained by data limitations. Here, a new specification of the semi-Markov transition probability matrix in terms of the underlying rates is provided, and a general procedure is developed to estimate semi-Markov probabilities and rates from adjacent population data.Multistate models recognizing marriage and divorce by duration in state are constructed for United States Females, 1995. The results show that recognizing duration in the married and divorced states adds significantly to the model’s analytical value. Extending the constant-α method to semi-Markov models, 2000–2005 U.S. population data and 1995 cross-product ratios are employed to estimate 2000–2005 duration-dependent transfer probabilities and rates.The present analyses provide new relationships between probabilities and rates in semi-Markov models. Extending the constant cross-product ratio estimation approach opens new sources of data and expands the range of data susceptible to state-duration analyses.

The State of the Art of Hidden Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance of Diesel Engines

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 2765-2779 ◽  
Author(s):  
António Simões ◽  
José Manuel Viegas ◽  
José Torres Farinha ◽  
Inácio Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Hidden Markov Models ◽  
Diesel Engines ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
The State ◽  
Predictive Maintenance

scholarly journals Parametric and Semiparametric Estimations of Bivariate Truncated Type I Generalized Logistic Models driven from Copulas

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lamya A Baharith
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Type I ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Study ◽  
Generalized Logistic Distribution ◽  
Weibull Models

Truncated type I generalized logistic distribution has been used in a variety of applications. In this article, a new bivariate truncated type I generalized logistic (BTTGL) distributional models driven from three different copula functions are introduced. A study of some properties is illustrated. Parametric and semiparametric methods are used to estimate the parameters of the BTTGL models. Maximum likelihood and inference function for margin estimates of the BTTGL parameters are compared with semiparametric estimates using real data set. Further, a comparison between BTTGL, bivariate generalized exponential and bivariate exponentiated Weibull models is conducted using Akaike information criterion and the maximized log-likelihood. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out for different values of the parameters and different sample sizes to compare the performance of parametric and semiparametric estimators based on relative mean square error.

scholarly journals Study of a Privacy Preserving Logistic Regression Algorithm (PPLRA) For Data Privacy in the Context of Big Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2083 (3) ◽  
pp. 032059
Author(s):  
Qiang Chen ◽  
Meiling Deng
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Privacy Protection ◽  
Data Privacy ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Average Absolute Error ◽  
Regression Algorithms ◽  
Hadoop Platform ◽  
Logistic Regression Algorithm ◽  
Computing Speed

Abstract Regression algorithms are commonly used in machine learning. Based on encryption and privacy protection methods, the current key hot technology regression algorithm and the same encryption technology are studied. This paper proposes a PPLAR based algorithm. The correlation between data items is obtained by logistic regression formula. The algorithm is distributed and parallelized on Hadoop platform to improve the computing speed of the cluster while ensuring the average absolute error of the algorithm.

scholarly journals PPalign: Optimal alignment of Potts models representing proteins with direct coupling information

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Talibart ◽  
François Coste
Keyword(s):  
Markov Models ◽  
Pairwise Alignment ◽  
Homology Search ◽  
Sequence Alignments ◽  
Potts Models ◽  
Functional Annotations ◽  
Current State ◽  
Linear Programming Formulation ◽  
Computational Bottleneck ◽  
New Research

AbstractBackgroundTo assign structural and functional annotations to the ever increasing amount of sequenced proteins, the main approach relies on sequence-based homology search methods, e.g. BLAST or the current state-of-the-art methods based on profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMM), which rely on significant alignments of query sequences to annotated proteins or protein families. While powerful, these approaches do not take coevolution between residues into account. Taking advantage of recent advances in the field of contact prediction, we propose here to represent proteins by Potts models, which model direct couplings between positions in addition to positional composition, and to compare proteins by aligning these models. Due to non-local dependencies, the problem of aligning Potts models is hard and remains the main computational bottleneck for their use.ResultsWe introduce here an Integer Linear Programming formulation of the problem and PPalign, a program based on this formulation, to compute the optimal pairwise alignment of Potts models representing proteins in tractable time. The approach is assessed with respect to a non-redundant set of reference pairwise sequence alignments from SISYPHUS benchmark which have lowest sequence identity (between 3% and 20%) and enable to build reliable Potts models for each sequence to be aligned. This experimentation confirms that Potts models can be aligned in reasonable time (1′37″ in average on these alignments). The contribution of couplings is evaluated in comparison with HHalign and PPalign without couplings. Although Potts models were not fully optimized for alignment purposes and simple gap scores were used, PPalign yields a better mean F1 score and finds significantly better alignments than HHalign and PPalign without couplings in some cases.ConclusionsThese results show that pairwise couplings from protein Potts models can be used to improve the alignment of remotely related protein sequences in tractable time. Our experimentation suggests yet that new research on the inference of Potts models is now needed to make them more comparable and suitable for homology search. We think that PPalign’s guaranteed optimality will be a powerful asset to perform unbiased investigations in this direction.

scholarly journals Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Model Based on GA-TCN

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Rongji Zhang ◽  
Feng Sun ◽  
Ziwen Song ◽  
Xiaolin Wang ◽  
Yingcui Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Average Absolute Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Flow Forecasting ◽  
Fitness Value

Traffic flow forecasting is the key to an intelligent transportation system (ITS). Currently, the short-term traffic flow forecasting methods based on deep learning need to be further improved in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Therefore, a short-term traffic flow forecasting model GA-TCN based on genetic algorithm (GA) optimized time convolutional neural network (TCN) is proposed in this paper. The prediction error was considered as the fitness value and the genetic algorithm was used to optimize the filters, kernel size, batch size, and dilations hyperparameters of the temporal convolutional neural network to determine the optimal fitness prediction model. Finally, the model was tested using the public dataset PEMS. The results showed that the average absolute error of the proposed GA-TCN decreased by 34.09%, 22.42%, and 26.33% compared with LSTM, GRU, and TCN in working days, while the average absolute error of the GA-TCN decreased by 24.42%, 2.33%, and 3.92% in weekend days, respectively. The results indicate that the model proposed in this paper has a better adaptability and higher prediction accuracy in short-term traffic flow forecasting compared with the existing models. The proposed model can provide important support for the formulation of a dynamic traffic control scheme.

Design and Simulation of Portable Data Terminal for Agriculture Equipment

2013 ◽  
Vol 336-338 ◽  
pp. 383-387
Author(s):  
Yan Xin Yin ◽  
Yu Tan ◽  
Shu Mao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Communication Protocol ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Wireless Sensor ◽  
Error Measurement ◽  
Average Absolute Error ◽  
Wireless Communication Protocol ◽  
Data Acquisition Software ◽  
Terminal Design ◽  
Data Terminal ◽  
Reliability And Availability

A portable data terminal design based on wireless sensor network was came up for agriculture equipment working status monitor, a JN5139 module was used as the hardware core of the terminal and Zigbee as the wireless communication protocol. Effect caused by time-delay and pocket loss was simulated and analyzed with Truetime1.5 under matlab, data acquisition software was developed according to the simulation that effectively reduced the influence. Error measurement test showed the analog average absolute error was 6.33mv and frequency average absolute error was 0.56Hz, that indicated the reliability and availability in agriculture application.

Forecasting Of Covid-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachin Kumar ◽  
Karan Veer
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Accuracy Score ◽  
Learning Approaches

Aims: The objective of this research is to predict the covid-19 cases in India based on the machine learning approaches. Background: Covid-19, a respiratory disease caused by one of the coronavirus family members, has led to a pandemic situation worldwide in 2020. This virus was detected firstly in Wuhan city of China in December 2019. This viral disease has taken less than three months to spread across the globe. Objective: In this paper, we proposed a regression model based on the Support vector machine (SVM) to forecast the number of deaths, the number of recovered cases, and total confirmed cases for the next 30 days. Method: For prediction, the data is collected from Github and the ministry of India's health and family welfare from March 14, 2020, to December 3, 2020. The model has been designed in Python 3.6 in Anaconda to forecast the forecasting value of corona trends until September 21, 2020. The proposed methodology is based on the prediction of values using SVM based regression model with polynomial, linear, rbf kernel. The dataset has been divided into train and test datasets with 40% and 60% test size and verified with real data. The model performance parameters are evaluated as a mean square error, mean absolute error, and percentage accuracy. Results and Conclusion: The results show that the polynomial model has obtained 95 % above accuracy score, linear scored above 90%, and rbf scored above 85% in predicting cumulative death, conformed cases, and recovered cases.

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