scholarly journals A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salpasaranis Konstantinos ◽  
Stylianakis Vasilios
Keyword(s):  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Official Data

The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG), Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.

scholarly journals Assessing and Comparing Short Term Load Forecasting Performance

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 2054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pekka Koponen ◽  
Jussi Ikäheimo ◽  
Juha Koskela ◽  
Christina Brester ◽  
Harri Niska
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Network Costs ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Errors

When identifying and comparing forecasting models, there may be a risk that poorly selected criteria could lead to wrong conclusions. Thus, it is important to know how sensitive the results are to the selection of criteria. This contribution aims to study the sensitivity of the identification and comparison results to the choice of criteria. It compares typically applied criteria for tuning and performance assessment of load forecasting methods with estimated costs caused by the forecasting errors. The focus is on short-term forecasting of the loads of energy systems. The estimated costs comprise electricity market costs and network costs. We estimate the electricity market costs by assuming that the forecasting errors cause balancing errors and consequently balancing costs to the market actors. The forecasting errors cause network costs by overloading network components thus increasing losses and reducing the component lifetime or alternatively increase operational margins to avoid those overloads. The lifetime loss of insulators, and thus also the components, is caused by heating according to the law of Arrhenius. We also study consumer costs. The results support the assumption that there is a need to develop and use additional and case-specific performance criteria for electricity load forecasting.

The short-term forecast of earthquakes: reality, scientific perspective or the project-phantom?

2019 ◽  
pp. 3-12
Author(s):  
N. V. Koronovsky ◽  
V. S. Zakharov ◽  
A. A. Naimark
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Geologic Medium ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Reliable Methods

The modern conditions, the received results and possible prospects of short-term forecasting of strong earthquakes are analysed. On examples of concrete researches it is shown, that such forecast with a required detail, accuracy and reliability is not carried, and is not expected in the future. It is fundamental consequence of nonlinearity of the seismic geodynamic systems functioning deterministically-chaotically in the fractal geologic medium. Effectiveness of forecasting in the form of attitude of number of successfully predicted earthquakes to number of registered ones on some certain area is not above several percent. Frequent messages about ostensibly reached almost 100%-s’ of effective short-term forecasting are denied by absence of adequate reliable methods, and by steady extension of the list of the not predicted seismic catastrophes.

scholarly journals Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast in the Middle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. V. Shapiro ◽  
W. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
Solar Uv Irradiance

We have applied chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL to simulate the distribution of the temperature and gas species in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. As an input for the simulation, we employ daily spectral solar UV irradiance measured by SUSIM instrument onboard UARS satellite in January 1992. We have carried out an ensemble of nine 1-month long simulations using slightly different initial states of the atmosphere. We have compared the obtained time evolution of the simulated species and temperature with available satellite measurements. The obtained results allowed us to define the areas where the nowcast and short-term forecast of the atmospheric species with CCM SOCOL could be successful.

scholarly journals Features of the functioning of financial pyramids using digital assets (using the example of the Finico project): criminological analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
S. S. Grozin ◽  
◽  
ZH.V. Ostrovskikh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Criminological Analysis ◽  
Digital Assets

The article deals with the problem of the emergence and functioning of financial pyramids based on the use of digital assets, using the example of the «Finico» project. The main performance indicators are analyzed, as well as the reasons that influenced the success of this project, its scale and duration of existence are characterized. Particular attention is paid to the ways of organizing and carrying out illegal financial activities with signs of financial pyramids, and some measures are proposed to counter it. A short-term forecast of an increase in the number of crimes committed using information, telecommunications and digital technologies in this area is given.

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