The short-term forecast of earthquakes: reality, scientific perspective or the project-phantom?

The modern conditions, the received results and possible prospects of short-term forecasting of strong earthquakes are analysed. On examples of concrete researches it is shown, that such forecast with a required detail, accuracy and reliability is not carried, and is not expected in the future. It is fundamental consequence of nonlinearity of the seismic geodynamic systems functioning deterministically-chaotically in the fractal geologic medium. Effectiveness of forecasting in the form of attitude of number of successfully predicted earthquakes to number of registered ones on some certain area is not above several percent. Frequent messages about ostensibly reached almost 100%-s’ of effective short-term forecasting are denied by absence of adequate reliable methods, and by steady extension of the list of the not predicted seismic catastrophes.

Attached and Unattached Microbial Communities in a Simulated Basalt Aquifer under Fracture- and Porous-Flow Conditions

ABSTRACT Bench scale column studies were used to examine the partitioning of microorganisms between groundwater and a geologic medium and to examine the effect of hydrogeology (i.e., porous- versus fracture-flow) on organism partitioning. Replicated columns were constructed with intact basalt core segments that contained natural fractures and with the same basalt crushed into particles. The columns were perfused with groundwater, and upon reaching a steady state, the columns were sacrificed and the attached and unattached communities were analyzed by multiple approaches. The analyses included the total number of cells, the phylogenetic affiliation of the cells (i.e., the α, β, and γ subclasses of the class Proteobacteria and gram positives with high G+C DNA content) by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), number and taxonomic affiliation by fatty acid methyl ester profiles of culturable heterotrophs, most-probable-number estimates of methanotrophs and phenol oxidizers, and whole-community sole carbon source utilization patterns from Biolog GN microplates. In the packed columns, about 99% of the total biomass (per cubic centimeter of porous medium) was attached to the geologic medium. Lack of equitable units precluded a comparison of attached and unattached biomasses in the fractured columns where the attached biomass was expressed per unit of surface area. Compositional differences in the attached and unattached communities were evidenced by (i) the recovery ofPseudomonas stutzeri, an Enterococcus sp., andBacillus psychrophilus from the groundwater and not from the basalt, (ii) differences between community carbon source utilization patterns, and (iii) the relative abundances of different phylogenetic groups estimated by FISH in both column types. In the packed columns, attached communities were depleted of members of the α- and β-Proteobacteria subclasses in comparison to those in the corresponding groundwater. In the fractured columns, attached communities were enriched in gram-positive Bacteriaand γ-Proteobacteria and depleted of β-Proteobacteria, in comparison to those in the corresponding groundwater. Segregation of populations and their activities, possibly modified by attachment to geologic media, may influence contaminant fate and transport in the subsurface and impact other in situ applications.