scholarly journals Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast in the Middle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. V. Shapiro ◽  
W. Schmutz

We have applied chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL to simulate the distribution of the temperature and gas species in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. As an input for the simulation, we employ daily spectral solar UV irradiance measured by SUSIM instrument onboard UARS satellite in January 1992. We have carried out an ensemble of nine 1-month long simulations using slightly different initial states of the atmosphere. We have compared the obtained time evolution of the simulated species and temperature with available satellite measurements. The obtained results allowed us to define the areas where the nowcast and short-term forecast of the atmospheric species with CCM SOCOL could be successful.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Urbich ◽  
Jörg Bendix ◽  
Richard Müller

Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid, the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless solar radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation is calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW (Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradiance Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05 ∘ . An extensive validation of this short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on either area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of this study equals 59 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 42 W/m 2 ) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 97 W/m 2 ) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun. After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be presented and discussed.


2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (A10) ◽  
pp. 21569-21583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew T. DeLand ◽  
Richard P. Cebula

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
S. S. Grozin ◽  
◽  
ZH.V. Ostrovskikh ◽  

The article deals with the problem of the emergence and functioning of financial pyramids based on the use of digital assets, using the example of the «Finico» project. The main performance indicators are analyzed, as well as the reasons that influenced the success of this project, its scale and duration of existence are characterized. Particular attention is paid to the ways of organizing and carrying out illegal financial activities with signs of financial pyramids, and some measures are proposed to counter it. A short-term forecast of an increase in the number of crimes committed using information, telecommunications and digital technologies in this area is given.


2020 ◽  
Vol 645 ◽  
pp. A2
Author(s):  
M. Meftah ◽  
M. Snow ◽  
L. Damé ◽  
D. Bolseé ◽  
N. Pereira ◽  
...  

Context. Solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is the wavelength-dependent energy input to the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. Solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance represents the primary forcing mechanism for the photochemistry, heating, and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere. Hence, both temporal and spectral variations in solar UV irradiance represent crucial inputs to the modeling and understanding of the behavior of the Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, measuring the long-term solar UV irradiance variations over the 11-year solar activity cycle (and over longer timescales) is fundamental. Thus, each new solar spectral irradiance dataset based on long-term observations represents a major interest and can be used for further investigations of the long-term trend of solar activity and the construction of a homogeneous solar spectral irradiance record. Aims. The main objective of this article is to present a new solar spectral irradiance database (SOLAR-v) with the associated uncertainties. This dataset is based on solar UV irradiance observations (165−300 nm) of the SOLAR/SOLSPEC space-based instrument, which provides measurements of the full-disk SSI during solar cycle 24. Methods. SOLAR/SOLSPEC made solar acquisitions between April 5, 2008 and February 10, 2017. During this period, the instrument was affected by the harsh space environment that introduces instrumental trends (degradation) in the SSI measurements. A new method based on an adaptation of the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) technique was used to separate solar variability and any uncorrected instrumental trends in the SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV irradiance measurements. Results. A new method for correcting degradation has been applied to the SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV irradiance records to provide new solar cycle variability results during solar cycle 24. Irradiances are reported at a mean solar distance of 1 astronomical unit (AU). In the 165−242 nm spectral region, the SOLAR/SOLSPEC data agrees with the observations (SORCE/SOLSTICE) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI 2) to within the 1-sigma error envelope. Between 242 and 300 nm, SOLAR/SOLSPEC agrees only with the models.


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