Economic Implications of Stocking and Budworm Attacks for Jack Pine Management
Regional growth and supply projections under selected management alternatives are crucial in planning necessary steps to meet increasing demands on a shrinking timber resource base. Knowledge about the growth and stocking conditions of second-growth stands is essential in such long-term projections especially if large geographical areas are considered. Two second-growth stocking assumptions were selected to illustrate the effect of stocking on management variables for the jack pine (Pinusbanksiana Lamb.) inventory of northwestern Wisconsin and to indicate plausible ranges for future growth, growing stock, and harvest volumes. These stocking effects were studied in a deterministic environment and with the occurrence of stochastic infestations of jack pine budworm (Choristoneurapinuspinus Freeman). The analysis illustrated the strong sensitivity of system's variables to assumptions about stocking for two contrasting rotation alternatives. The sensitivity of the model was increased considerably when budworm infestations were simulated because jack pine budworm populations movements are strongly influenced by the stocking conditions of the host stand. Policies were identified for which more reliable projections of minimum expected growth and yields are possible than for presently-used policies for jack pine in the Lake States.