Bayesian removal estimation of a population size under unequal catchability

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samu Mäntyniemi ◽  
Atso Romakkaniemi ◽  
Elja Arjas
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Removal Experiments ◽  
Realistic Description ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Removal Sampling ◽  
Very High

We introduce a Bayesian probability model for the estimation of the size of an animal population from removal data. The model is based on the assumption that in the removal sampling, catchability may vary between individuals, which appears to be necessary for a realistic description of many biological populations. Heterogeneous catchability among individuals leads to a situation where the mean catchability in the population gradually decreases as the number of removals increases. Under this assumption, the model can be fitted to any removal data, i.e., there are no limitations regarding the total catch, the number of removals, or the decline of the catch. Using a published data set from removal experiments of a known population size, the model is shown to be able to estimate the population size appropriately in all cases considered. It is also shown that regardless of the statistical approach, a model that assumes equal catchability of individuals generally leads to an underestimation of the population. The example indicates that if there is only vague prior information about the variation of catchability among individuals, a very high number of successive removals may be needed to correctly estimate the population size.

scholarly journals Comparing the performance of analytical techniques for genetic parentage of half-sib progeny arrays

2009 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 313-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
DEAN A. CROSHAW ◽  
MAUREEN B. PETERS ◽  
TRAVIS C. GLENN
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Multiple Mating ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Multiple Paternity ◽  
Genetic Data ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Analytical Approaches

SummaryThe prevalence of female multiple mating in natural populations is important for many questions in mating system evolution. Several statistical techniques use genetic data to estimate the number of fathers that contribute gametes to broods, but they have not been widely compared to assess the magnitude of differences in their performance. With a combination of new data and reanalysis of previously published data, we compared five analytical approaches: (1) allele-counting, (2) parental reconstruction in GERUD, (3) a Bayesian probability model to estimate the frequency of multiple mating (FMM), (4) computer simulations based on population allele frequencies in HAPLOTYPES and (5) Bayesian parental reconstruction in PARENTAGE. The results show that choice of analysis technique can significantly affect estimates of sire number. Estimates from GERUD conformed exactly to results obtained from strict exclusion of potential sires in an experimental context. However, estimates yielded by HAPLOTYPES and PARENTAGE sometimes exceeded the numbers from GERUD by as much as 120 and 55%, respectively. We recommend GERUD over these other approaches for most purposes because of its accuracy and consistency in this analysis. Our novel genetic data set allowed us to investigate the extent and frequency of multiple paternity in a marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) population in South Carolina, USA. A. opacum contrasted with other salamander species by having relatively low levels of multiple paternity (only 31–54% compared with 71–96%). Although A. opacum had the lowest level of multiple paternity under all analytical approaches used here, the magnitude of differences among species varied.

Population structure of the Sahiwal breed in Pakistan

1995 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Dahlin ◽  
U. N. Khan ◽  
A. H. Zafar ◽  
M. Saleem ◽  
M. A. Chaudhry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Effective Population Size ◽  
Breeding Population ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inbreeding Coefficients ◽  
Sahiwal Cows ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Average Population Size

AbstractThe present study was undertaken to assist conservation and improvement schemes in the Sahiwal breed of cattle in Pakistan. A data set, consisting of records of 244 pure Sahiwal breeding bulls and 5247 cows, the latter representing about 80% of all recorded Sahiwal cows in Pakistan born during a period covering about 20 years, was analysed with regard to inbreeding, additive relationships, effective population size and generation intervals. Average inbreeding coefficients of 1224 cows and 49 bulls, for which at least the grandparents and great-grandsires were known, were 0·043 and 0·046, respectively. About two-thirds of the inbreeding was due to matings between animals with parents or grandparents in common. The mean additive relationship among the cows was 0·062, with within-herd averages ranging from 0·087 to 0·358. The average population size in a subdata set of recorded Sahiwal cattle from 1980 to 1984 was 1612, whereas the most likely estimate of the effective population size was about 30 animals for the same active breeding population. The study indicated the immediate need for an active conservation programme whereby the Sahiwal subpopulations of India and Kenya also should be involved.

scholarly journals The challenge of estimating wildlife populations at scale: the case of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Byrne ◽  
Andrew Parnell ◽  
James O’Keeffe ◽  
Jamie M. Madden
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Group Size ◽  
National Level ◽  
Meles Meles ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Landscape Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
European Badger ◽  
Significant Research ◽  
The Mean

AbstractEstimating population size in space and time is essential for applied ecology and wildlife management purposes; however, making accurate and precise estimates at large scales is highly challenging. An example is the European badger (Meles meles), a widespread and abundant mammal in Ireland. Due to their role in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis, the species has been culled in agriculturally dominant landscapes with the intention of reducing spillback infection to local cattle populations. Despite several studies using different approaches having estimated badger populations at different time points and scales, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the current population and its future trajectory. To explore this uncertainty, we use published data and expert opinion to estimate a snapshot of probable badger population size using a Monte Carlo approach, incorporating variation in three key components: social group numbers, group size, and culling efficacy. Using this approach, we estimate what the badger population in Ireland would be with/without culling, assuming a steady-state population at carrying capacity, and discuss the limitations of our current understanding. The mean estimate for the badger population size was 63,188 (5–95th percentile, 48,037–79,315). Population estimates were sensitive to the assumption of mean group size across landscape type. Assuming a cessation of culling (in favour of vaccination, for example) in agricultural areas, the mean estimated population size was 92,096 (5–95th percentile, 67,188–118,881). Despite significant research being conducted on badgers, estimates on population size at a national level in Ireland are only approximate, which is reflected in the large uncertainty in the estimates from this study and inconsistencies between recording of data parameters in previous studies. Focusing on carefully estimating group size, factors impacting its variation, in addition to understanding the dynamics of repopulation post-culling, could be a fruitful component to concentrate on to improve the precision of future estimates.

scholarly journals A Day in the Life of the AMU– The Society for Acute Medicine’s Benchmarking Audit 2012 (SAMBA ‘12)

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-73
Author(s):  
Christian P Subbe ◽  
◽  
David Ward ◽  
Lenny Latip ◽  
Ivan Le Jeune ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Reliability ◽  
Published Data ◽  
National Audit ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Acute Medicine ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Test Feasibility ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Summary Data

Background: The absence of published data for benchmarking serves as a disincentive for Acute Medical Units to improve care. Aim: To test feasibility of a national audit in Acute Medicine for compliance with common standards Methods: On line questionnaire with summary data for patients admitted to participating Acute Medicine Units over a 24-hour-period. Results: 30 units submitted summary data. The mean number of admission was 36 (SD 14). Compliance with standards around timing of junior and senior review was highly variable. In almost all other standards only a small number of units achieved high reliability with compliance of more than 90%. Conclusion: SAMBA provides a data set that can be used for local and national benchmarking and quality improvement work. Annual audit might be beneficial to track improvements.

Monoamine Oxidase and Other Mitochondrial Enzymes in Density Subpopulations of Human Platelets

1988 ◽  
Vol 59 (01) ◽  
pp. 029-033 ◽  
Author(s):  
K G Chamberlain ◽  
D G Penington
Keyword(s):  
Monoamine Oxidase ◽  
Protein Concentration ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Human Platelets ◽  
Mitochondrial Enzymes ◽  
Density Fractions ◽  
Percoll Gradients ◽  
Normal Human ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High

SummaryNormal human platelets have been separated according to density on continuous Percoll gradients and the platelet distribution divided into five fractions containing approximately equal numbers of platelets. The mean volumes and protein contents of the platelets in each fraction were found to correlate positively with density while the protein concentration did not differ significantly between the fractions. Four mitochondrial enzymes (monoamine oxidase, glutamate dehydrogenase, cytochrome oxidase and NADP-dependent isocitrate dehydrogenase) were assayed and their activities per unit volume were found to increase in a very similar monotonie fashion with platelet density. When MAO and GDH were assayed on the same set of density fractions the correlation between the two activities was very high (r = 0.94–1.00, p <0.001) and a similar close correlation was found between MAO and ICDH. The results support the hypothesis that high density platelets either have a higher concentration of mitochondria or have larger mitochondria than low density platelets.

Der Sommer und Herbst 2003 aus phänologischer Sicht | Summer and autumn 2003 from a phenological point of view

2004 ◽  
Vol 155 (5) ◽  
pp. 142-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Defila
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Record ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Leaf Shedding ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High ◽  
Selection Of

The record-breaking heatwave of 2003 also had an impact on the vegetation in Switzerland. To examine its influences seven phenological late spring and summer phases were evaluated together with six phases in the autumn from a selection of stations. 30% of the 122 chosen phenological time series in late spring and summer phases set a new record (earliest arrival). The proportion of very early arrivals is very high and the mean deviation from the norm is between 10 and 20 days. The situation was less extreme in autumn, where 20% of the 103 time series chosen set a new record. The majority of the phenological arrivals were found in the class «normal» but the class«very early» is still well represented. The mean precocity lies between five and twenty days. As far as the leaf shedding of the beech is concerned, there was even a slight delay of around six days. The evaluation serves to show that the heatwave of 2003 strongly influenced the phenological events of summer and spring.

Update on the Boundaries of the Curly Birch Range

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-21
Author(s):  
L.V. Vetchinnikova ◽  
◽  
A.F. Titov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Population Approach ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
History Of ◽  
Individual Trees ◽  
Karelian Birch

The article reports on the application of the best known principles for mapping natural populations of curly (Karelian) birch Betula pendula Roth var. carelica (Mercklin) Hämet-Ahti – one of the most appealing representatives of the forest tree flora. Relying on the synthesis and analysis of the published data amassed over nearly 100 years and the data from own full-scale studies done in the past few decades almost throughout the area where curly birch has grown naturally, it is concluded that its range outlined in the middle of the 20th century and since then hardly revised is outdated. The key factors and reasons necessitating its revision are specified. Herewith it is suggested that the range is delineated using the population approach, and the key element will be the critical population size below which the population is no longer viable in the long term. This approach implies that the boundaries of the taxon range depend on the boundaries of local populations (rather than the locations of individual trees or small clumps of trees), the size of which should not be lower than the critical value, which is supposed to be around 100–500 trees for curly birch. A schematic map of the curly birch range delineated using this approach is provided. We specially address the problem of determining the minimum population size to secure genetic diversity maintenance. The advantages of the population approach to delineating the distribution range of curly birch with regard to its biological features are highlighted. The authors argue that it enables a more accurate delineation of the range; shows the natural evolutionary history of the taxon (although it is not yet officially recognized as a species) and its range; can be relatively easily updated (e.g. depending on the scope of reintroduction); should be taken into account when working on the strategy of conservation and other actions designed to maintain and regenerate this unique representative of the forest tree flora.

Growth table for Corsican pine in Flanders (Belgium)

1991 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Meuleman
Keyword(s):  
Insect Pests ◽  
Sandy Loam ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Permanent Plots ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Volume Increment ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Annual Volume ◽  
Very High

After  its introduction at the start of this century, the Corsican pine has become  an important forest tree in Flanders (Belgium). The total area covered by  Corsican pine is about 11.000 ha. Due to climatological factors it is  virtually absent from the Walloon part of Belgium. Despite the crisis in 1984  - 1986, practical experiences with its vitality and disease resistance are  generally positive. Compared to Scots pine which is native to Belgium, its  productivity and insensitivity for insect pests is large.     To quantify the productivity of Corsican pine, a growth table was  constructed using a method developed by PALM and DAGNELIE. It was based on  data from 321 temporarily and 80 permanent plots distributed over Flanders.  Five yield classes were distinguished according to dominant height at 50  years. For each yield class, a series of tables as a function of treatment  was constructed. Treatments were characterized by the mean annual  circumference increment.     These tables allow to predict the growth of Corsican pines. Such  predictions for the whole range of species are necessary for the development  of a good forestry policy and for timber industries. The tables also provide  information for any given Corsican pine stand that is helpful in practice:  expected productivity, stand density, determination of the felling quantum.      The data show that the productivity of Corsican pine is very high. The very  early culmination of the current annual volume increment and the rather  constant level of the mean annual volume increment after culmination are  interesting new findings. It is also shown that it is possible to work with  long rotation periods. This offers good opportunities for the production of  high quality wood and is also important for the social and ecological role of  the forest.     Productivity is lowest on very dry and sandy soils. A high productivity on  moderately dry sand and loamy sand soils and loamy soils make the Corsican  pine one of the most valuable tree species for the Kempen in Flanders.  Although productivity is very high on well drained sandy loam and loam soils,  plantation of Corsican pine on these locations is not advised.

scholarly journals Exercise Intensity during Olympic-Distance Triathlon in Well-Trained Age-Group Athletes: An Observational Study

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Atsushi Aoyagi ◽  
Keisuke Ishikura ◽  
Yoshiharu Nabekura
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Exercise Intensity ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Slow Group ◽  
H 41 ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Aerobic And Anaerobic ◽  
Very High

The aim of this study was to examine the exercise intensity during the swimming, cycling, and running legs of nondraft legal, Olympic-distance triathlons in well-trained, age-group triathletes. Seventeen male triathletes completed incremental swimming, cycling, and running tests to exhaustion. Heart rate (HR) and workload corresponding to aerobic and anaerobic thresholds, maximal workloads, and maximal HR (HRmax) in each exercise mode were analyzed. HR and workload were monitored throughout the race. The intensity distributions in three HR zones for each discipline and five workload zones in cycling and running were quantified. The subjects were then assigned to a fast or slow group based on the total race time (range, 2 h 07 min–2 h 41 min). The mean percentages of HRmax in the swimming, cycling, and running legs were 89.8% ± 3.7%, 91.1% ± 4.4%, and 90.7% ± 5.1%, respectively, for all participants. The mean percentage of HRmax and intensity distributions during the swimming and cycling legs were similar between groups. In the running leg, the faster group spent relatively more time above HR at anaerobic threshold (AnT) and between workload at AnT and maximal workload. In conclusion, well-trained male triathletes performed at very high intensity throughout a nondraft legal, Olympic-distance triathlon race, and sustaining higher intensity during running might play a role in the success of these athletes.

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