scholarly journals A Techno-Economic Computational Tool for Power Generation Project Assessments and Life Cycle Risk Management

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Gayraud ◽  
Riti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines

The growing desire for sponsors of power generation projects to share risk with the lenders has promoted the use of computational tools, simulating and evaluating from a techno-economic viewpoint long-term, high-risk projects. Such models need to include reliable engine diagnostics, life-cycle costing and risk analysis technique. This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) for the assessment of power generation projects using industrial gas turbines. The software, programmed in Visual Basic in Excel, runs the object-oriented software Pythia which has been developed by the Department of Propulsion, Power and Automotive Engineering at Cranfield University and which can perform gas turbine performance calculations, including off-design conditions, with or without degradation effects providing thus very reliable engine diagnostics. Moreover, a life cycle cost, assessed using manufacturer methodology for instance, can be integrated into the economic model. The degree of uncertainty relating to technical and economic factors is assessed using a normal distribution and the level of risk can then be evaluated using a risk analysis technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method. The DSS therefore provides charts and result tables to support the decision making, allowing the user to achieve a good level of confidence using new techniques of risk management.

A Method of Evaluating Life Cycle Costs of Industrial Gas Turbines

1989 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 637-641
Author(s):  
R. B. Spector
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Life Cycle Analysis ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Life Cycle Costs ◽  
Initial Cost ◽  
Relative Value ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines ◽  
Combined Cycles ◽  
New Criterion

When aeroderivative gas turbines were first introduced into industrial service, the prime criterion for assessing the “relative value” of equipment was derived by dividing the initial (or capital) cost of the equipment by the number of kilowatts produced. The use of “dollars per kilowatt” as an assessment parameter emanated from the utility sector and is still valid providing that the turbomachinery units under consideration possess similar performance features with regard to thermal efficiency. Second-generation gas turbines being produced today possess thermal efficiencies approximately 45 percent greater than those previously available. Thus, a new criterion is required to provide the purchaser with a better “value” perspective to differentiate the various types of turbomachinery under consideration. This paper presents a technique for combining the initial cost of equipment with the costs of fuel consumed, applied labor, and parts to arrive at an assessment parameter capable of comparing the relative merits of varying types of turbomachinery. For simplicity, this paper limits the life cycle cost derivation and discussion to turbogenerator units; however, the principles of this type of life cycle analysis can also be applied to gas turbines in mechanical drive applications and/or combined cycles.

scholarly journals A life-cycle based decision-making framework for electricity generation system planning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven James Norrie
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Multiple Objectives ◽  
Generation System ◽  
Demand Reduction ◽  
Decision Making Framework

This thesis proposed a decision-making framework to consider multiple objectives in long-term planning situations, and asserts that planning for power generation systems should consider relevant environmental and/or social objectives at the same decision level as traditional economic or reliability objectives. The framework was applied to the case study of long-term planning for Ontario's power generation system. The framework integrates life-cycle based information and decision-maker preferences toward multiple objectives in the context of sustainable development. Six decision criteria evaluated as measures of the objectives include life-cycle cost of electricity, a system flexibility indicator, demand reduction, land use requirements, greenhouse gas emissions, and air emissions. Stakeholder values were derived through questionnaires. Three hypothetical electricity generation scenarios were compared to test the decision-making framework. The results of the application indicated that the scenario which included aggressive renewable energy development and demand reduction was favourable, even given the tradeoffs of reliability and costs.

scholarly journals A life-cycle based decision-making framework for electricity generation system planning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven James Norrie
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Multiple Objectives ◽  
Generation System ◽  
Demand Reduction ◽  
Decision Making Framework

This thesis proposed a decision-making framework to consider multiple objectives in long-term planning situations, and asserts that planning for power generation systems should consider relevant environmental and/or social objectives at the same decision level as traditional economic or reliability objectives. The framework was applied to the case study of long-term planning for Ontario's power generation system. The framework integrates life-cycle based information and decision-maker preferences toward multiple objectives in the context of sustainable development. Six decision criteria evaluated as measures of the objectives include life-cycle cost of electricity, a system flexibility indicator, demand reduction, land use requirements, greenhouse gas emissions, and air emissions. Stakeholder values were derived through questionnaires. Three hypothetical electricity generation scenarios were compared to test the decision-making framework. The results of the application indicated that the scenario which included aggressive renewable energy development and demand reduction was favourable, even given the tradeoffs of reliability and costs.

scholarly journals A Method of Evaluating Life Cycle Costs of Industrial Gas Turbines

1988 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. Spector
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Life Cycle Costs ◽  
Turbo Generator ◽  
Relative Value ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines ◽  
Combined Cycles ◽  
Turbo Machinery ◽  
New Criterion

When aero-derivative gas turbines were first introduced into industrial service, the prime criterion for assessing the “relative value” of equipment was derived hy dividing the initial (or capital) cost of the equipment by the number of kilowatts produced. The use of “dollars per kilowatt” as an assessment parameter emanated from the utility sector and is still valid providing that the turbo-machinery units under consideration possess similar performance features with regard to thermal efficiency. Second generation gas turbines being produced today possess thermal efficiencies approximately forty-five percent greater than those previously available. Thus, a new criterion is required to provide the purchaser with a better “value” perspective to differentiate the various types of turbo-machinery under consideration. This paper presents a technique of combining the initial cost of equipment with the costs of fuel consumed, applied labor and parts to arrive at an assessment parameter capable of comparing the relative merits of varying types of turbo-machinery. For simplicity, this paper limits the life cycle cost derivation and discussion to turbo-generator units; however, the principles of this type of life cycle analysis can also be applied to gas turbines in mechanical drive applications and/or combined cycles.

scholarly journals Life Cycle Cost of Electricity Production: A Comparative Study of Coal-Fired, Biomass, and Wind Power in China

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3463
Author(s):  
Xueliang Yuan ◽  
Leping Chen ◽  
Xuerou Sheng ◽  
Mengyue Liu ◽  
Yue Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
External Cost ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Cost Of Electricity

Economic cost is decisive for the development of different power generation. Life cycle cost (LCC) is a useful tool in calculating the cost at all life stages of electricity generation. This study improves the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model as the LCC calculation methods from three aspects, including considering the quantification of external cost, expanding the compositions of internal cost, and discounting power generation. The improved LCOE model is applied to three representative kinds of power generation, namely, coal-fired, biomass, and wind power in China, in the base year 2015. The external cost is quantified based on the ReCiPe model and an economic value conversion factor system. Results show that the internal cost of coal-fired, biomass, and wind power are 0.049, 0.098, and 0.081 USD/kWh, separately. With the quantification of external cost, the LCCs of the three are 0.275, 0.249, and 0.081 USD/kWh, respectively. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the discount rate and five cost factors, namely, the capital cost, raw material cost, operational and maintenance cost (O&M cost), other annual costs, and external costs. The results provide a quantitative reference for decision makings of electricity production and consumption.

scholarly journals Life Cycle Cost Analysis of a Single-Family House in Sweden

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Bojana Petrović ◽  
Xingxing Zhang ◽  
Ola Eriksson ◽  
Marita Wallhagen
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Economic Parameters ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Family House ◽  
Replacement Operation

The objective of this paper was to explore long-term costs for a single-family house in Sweden during its entire lifetime. In order to estimate the total costs, considering construction, replacement, operation, and end-of-life costs over the long term, the life cycle cost (LCC) method was applied. Different cost solutions were analysed including various economic parameters in a sensitivity analysis. Economic parameters used in the analysis include various nominal discount rates (7%, 5%, and 3%), an inflation rate of 2%, and energy escalation rates (2–6%). The study includes two lifespans (100 and 50 years). The discounting scheme was used in the calculations. Additionally, carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions were considered and systematically analysed with costs. Findings show that when the discount rate is decreased from 7% to 3%, the total costs are increased significantly, by 44% for a 100-year lifespan, while for a 50 years lifespan the total costs show a minor increase by 18%. The construction costs represent a major part of total LCC, with labor costs making up half of them. Considering costs and emissions together, a full correlation was not found, while a partial relationship was investigated. Results can be useful for decision-makers in the building sector.

scholarly journals Pressure gain combustion advantage in land-based electric power generation

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. K4MD26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyfettin C. Gülen
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Heavy Duty ◽  
Quantum Leap ◽  
Pressure Gain Combustion ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines ◽  
Plant Efficiency

AbstractThis article evaluates the improvement in gas turbine combined cycle power plant efficiency and output via pressure gain combustion (PGC). Ideal and real cycle calculations are provided for a rigorous assessment of PGC variants (e.g., detonation and deflagration) in a realistic power plant framework with advanced heavy-duty industrial gas turbines. It is shown that PGC is the single-most potent knob available to the designers for a quantum leap in combined cycle performance.

Computer-Aided FT8® RAM Analysis With On Condition Maintenance

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Gaudette ◽  
Larry Fraser ◽  
S. A. Della Villa
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Product Introduction ◽  
Marine Systems ◽  
Equipment Manufacturer ◽  
Computer Aided ◽  
Ram Analysis ◽  
Equipment Operator

Product reliability is influenced by both design and operating and maintenance practices. This means both the equipment manufacturer and the equipment’s operator have an impact on the systems’ achievable level of availability. Many variables such as application (utility or cogeneration) or service or duty cycle (peaking, cycling, or continuous duty), influence the expected availability/reliability of any unit. These variables and an understanding of the expected “economic demand” the unit must fill are important elements for a realistic and accurate reliability assessment. These variables also affect the expected maintenance costs associated with the unit. Both the equipment manufacturer and the equipment operator have a vested interest in understanding and influencing this process. If the expected level of reliability/availability is a major requirement of the equipment owner/operator, then there must be an accurate understanding of how the reliability of the unit will be protected over the long term. Thus the unit first cost and life cycle cost can be estimated in a meaningful way. The objective of this paper is to provide an assessment of proved design reliability along with the application of on condition maintenance of Turbo Power and Marine Systems’ (Turbo Power) most recent product introduction, the FT8. A computer-aided reliability analysis was made by Turbo Power with the support of Strategic Power Systems, Inc. (SPS), to demonstrate and support the suitability of the FT8 for both peaking and continuous duty applications utilizing on condition maintenance concepts. Consequently, the presentation of the RAM analysis is organized to assist in developing a complete and comprehensive understanding of the evolution of the product and to develop realistic RAM (Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability) and life cycle cost expectations.

Fast Pyrolysis Oil for Power Generation

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Chiaramonti ◽  
Anja Oasmaa ◽  
Yrjo¨ Solantausta
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fast Pyrolysis ◽  
High Energy ◽  
High Energy Density ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Pyrolysis Oil

Biomass fast-pyrolysis oil (PO) is a liquid biofuel derived from lignocellulosic biomass: it offers several advantages compared to the direct us of solid bio fuels, such as high energy density, storability and transportability typical of liquid fuels, possibility to use the fuel in engines and turbines, easier downscaling of plants (which is a very important aspect for decentralized energy generation schemes). In addition, PO is the lowest cost biofuel, thus offering the possibility to penetrate also the large scale power generation market. Biomass POs have been studied and applications tested for many years, either for heat generation in medium-scale boilers or power generation. The present works reviews and analyses the most relevant experiences carried out so far and published results in power production from biomass PO. Power generation systems (PGS) which are here examined are gas turbines, diesel engines, stirling engines, as well as co-firing applications in large scale power plants (coal or natural gas plants). The main techniques for upgrading this biofuel and their impact on technologies are also shortly introduced and considered. The current status of development for each PO-based power generation option is discussed. This review work showed that long term demonstration (either technical or economical) is however still needed, even for the most developed technologies (use of PO in modified gas turbines and cofiring in natural gas stations): projects are on going to achieve long term demonstration.

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