Reliability Analysis of Marine Platforms Subject to Fatigue Damage for Risk Based Inspection Planning

2008 ◽  
Vol 130 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Francisco Silva-González ◽  
Roberto Montes-Iturrizaga
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Shear Capacity ◽  
State Function ◽  
Strength Ratio ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Reserve Strength ◽  
State Functions

The probability of failure of steel jacket platforms subjected to fatigue damage is computed by means of Monte Carlo simulations using limit state functions in which wave, wind, and deck loadings are expressed in terms of empirical functions of uncertain maximum wave height. Limit state functions associated with the base shear capacity of the jacket and the shear capacity of the deck legs were used. The sensitivity of the probability of failure to the coefficient of variation of resistance, of wave height, of resistance and loading biases, and to parameters in empirical loading functions, as well as the influence of the reserve strength ratio is analyzed using a simplified limit state function. Results from simulations are compared to those obtained with a formulation that relates the reserve strength ratio to the reliability index. An application to risk based inspection planning for extension of the service life of a platform is given.

Assessment of Fatigue Safety Factors for Deep-Water Risers in Relation to VIV

2005 ◽  
Vol 127 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Trond Stokka Meling ◽  
Carl M. Larsen ◽  
Vidar Berntsen ◽  
Bernie Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Parameter Variations ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Steel Catenary Risers ◽  
Analytical Expressions

Safety factors required to control fatigue damage of deepwater metallic risers caused by vortex-induced vibration (VIV) are considered. Four different riser configurations are studied: Cases I and II: Vertical tensioned 12in. risers suspended from a spar buoy at water depths of 500 and 1500m. Cases III and IV: Steel catenary risers suspended from a spar buoy, both at 1000m. For Case III, the riser diameter is 12in., while for Case IV it is 33in. For each riser configuration, relevant design and analysis parameters which are subject to uncertainty are identified. For these quantities, random variables are established also representing model uncertainties. Subsequently, repeated analyses of fatigue damage are performed by varying the input parameters within representative intervals. The results are applied to fit analytical expressions (i.e., so-called response surfaces) utilized to describe the limit state function and to develop the probabilistic model for reliability analysis of the risers. By combining the random variables for the input parameters with the results from the parameter variations, a relationship between the fatigue safety factor and the failure probability is established for each riser configuration.

Reliability-Based Optimal Design and Tolerancing for Multibody Systems Using Explicit Design Space Decomposition

2010 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Arenbeck ◽  
Samy Missoum ◽  
Anirban Basudhar ◽  
Parviz Nikravesh
Keyword(s):  
Multibody Systems ◽  
Adaptive Sampling ◽  
Design Space ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Uniform Design ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
State Function ◽  
Nominal System ◽  
Truncated Normal

This paper introduces a new approach for the optimal geometric design and tolerancing of multibody systems. The approach optimizes both the nominal system dimensions and the associated tolerances by solving a reliability-based design optimization (RDBO) problem under the assumption of truncated normal distributions of the geometric properties. The solution is obtained by first constructing the explicit boundaries of the failure regions (limit state function) using a support vector machine, combined with adaptive sampling and uniform design of experiments. The use of explicit boundaries enables the treatment of systems with discontinuous or binary behaviors. The explicit boundaries also allow for an efficient calculation of the probability of failure using importance sampling. The probability of failure is subsequently approximated over the whole design space (the nominal system dimensions and the associated tolerances), thus making the solution of the RBDO problem straightforward. The proposed approach is applied to the optimization of a web cutter mechanism.

Fatigue strength assessment of ship structures accounting for a coating life and corrosion degradation

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yordan Garbatov
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Fatigue Strength ◽  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Fatigue Reliability ◽  
Hot Spot Stress ◽  
Notch Stress ◽  
Fatigue Limit State

Purpose Fatigue strength and reliability assessment of complex double hull oil tanker structures, based on different local structural finite element approaches, is performed accounting for the uncertainties originating from load, nominal stresses, hot spot stress calculations, weld quality estimations and misalignments and fatigue S-N parameters including the correlation between load cases and the coating life and corrosion degradation. Design/methodology/approach Ship hull wave-induced vertical and horizontal bending moments and pressure are considered in the analysis. Stress analyses are performed based on the nominal, local hot spot and notch stress approaches. A linear elastic finite element analysis is used to determine the stress distribution around the welded details and to estimate structural stresses of all critical locations. Fatigue damage is estimated by employing the Palmgren-Miner approach. The importance of the contribution of each random variable to the uncertainty of the fatigue limit state function is also estimated. The probability of fatigue damage of hot spots is evaluated taking into account random coating life and corrosion wastage. Fatigue reliability, during the service life, is modelled as a system of correlated events. Findings The fatigue analysis showed that the fatigue damage at the hotspot, located at the flange of the stiffener close to the cut-out, is always highest in the cases of the structural hot spot stress and effective notch stress approaches, except for the one of the nominal stress approach. The sensitivities of the fatigue limit state function with respect to changes in the random variables were demonstrated showing that the uncertainty in the fatigue stress estimation and fatigue damage are the most important. Fatigue reliability, modelled as a parallel system of structural hot spots and as a serial system of correlated events (load cases) was evaluated based on the Ditlevsen bounds. As a result of the performed analysis, reliability and Beta reliability indexes of lower and upper bounds were estimated, which are very similar to the ones adopted for ultimate strength collapse as reported in literature. Originality/value This paper develops a very complex fatigue strength and reliability assessment model for analysing a double hull oil tanker structure using different local structural finite element approaches accounting for the associated uncertainties and the correlation between load cases and the coating life and corrosion degradation. The developed model is flexible enough to be applied for analysing different structural failure modes.

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Mean-Value Second-Order Saddlepoint Approximation

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios I. Papadimitriou ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos
Keyword(s):  
Topology Optimization ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Saddlepoint Approximation ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Second Order ◽  
State Function ◽  
Sensitivity Derivatives ◽  
Reliability Method

A reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) approach is presented using a new mean-value second-order saddlepoint approximation (MVSOSA) method to calculate the probability of failure. The topology optimizer uses a discrete adjoint formulation. MVSOSA is based on a second-order Taylor expansion of the limit state function at the mean values of the random variables. The first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives of the limit state cumulant generating function (CGF), with respect to the random variables in MVSOSA, are computed using direct-differentiation of the structural equations. Third-order sensitivity derivatives, including the sensitivities of the saddlepoint, are calculated using the adjoint approach. The accuracy of the proposed MVSOSA reliability method is demonstrated using a nonlinear mathematical example. Comparison with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) shows that MVSOSA is more accurate than mean-value first-order saddlepoint approximation (MVFOSA) and more accurate than mean-value second-order second-moment (MVSOSM) method. Finally, the proposed RBTO-MVSOSA method for minimizing a compliance-based probability of failure is demonstrated using two two-dimensional beam structures under random loading. The density-based topology optimization based on the solid isotropic material with penalization (SIMP) method is utilized.

Failure Assessment and Reliability Analysis of CFRP Composite Pressure Vessel

2007 ◽  
Vol 348-349 ◽  
pp. 225-228
Author(s):  
Jun Shen ◽  
M.L. Zhang ◽  
D.Y. Hou
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Pressure Vessel ◽  
Progressive Failure ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Fiber Direction ◽  
State Function ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Composite Pressure Vessel ◽  
Cfrp Composite

A new approach for progressive failure and reliability analysis of carbon fiber reinforced polymeric (CFRP) composite pressure vessel with many base random variables is developed in the paper. The elastic constants of CFRP lamina and geometric parameters of the vessel are selected as the base design variables. CFRP lamina specimen and pressure vessel were manufactured and tested in order to obtain statistics of design variables. The limit state function for progressive failure analysis was set up. Then the progressive failure and reliability analysis of the vessel were performed according to the stiffness degradation model based on Monte Carlo simulation procedure using MATLAB. The distributions of failure loads and the probability of failure of the vessel were obtained. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method is validated by good agreement between the simulation and experimental results. Further analysis indicates that the lamina tensile strength in the fiber direction and hoop layer thickness of the vessel have significant influence on the probability of failure of composite pressure vessel.

Reliability-Based Fatigue Design for Piping Using Spectrum Characteristics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinsuke Sakai ◽  
Jyunki Maeda ◽  
Masahiro Takanashi ◽  
Izumi Satoshi
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Equivalent Stress ◽  
Random Wave ◽  
State Function ◽  
Counting Method ◽  
Random Loading ◽  
Analytical Treatment ◽  
Fatigue Design ◽  
Spectrum Characteristics

A reliability-based approach can play an important role in avoiding excessive conservative design for piping. We showed a formulation for applying the limit state function method to reliability-based fatigue design at the previous PVP conference. Using this method, the reliability can be expressed by two dominant parameters: the distribution of equivalent stress and the distribution of fatigue life. If the equivalent stress under stationary random loading can be related to some specific spectrum parameters, it is expected that reliability-based fatigue design can be achieved under random loading. Fatigue damage under random loading is usually estimated using Miner’s law together with the SN diagram. In applying Miner’s law, the random wave is decomposed to the fatigue range using some counting method. The rainflow cycle counting (RFC) method is widely used as a counting method. In view of design application, however, the estimation of fatigue damage from spectrum characteristics is important, and the RFC method is not necessarily suitable for this purpose because it is rather difficult to use in the analytical treatment. Fortunately, it has been shown that the level crossing counting (LCC) method provides a more conservative estimation when compared with the RFC method and the analytical treatment for the evaluation is available. In this paper, we will show a procedure for reliability-based fatigue design which evaluates fatigue damage using the LCC method, spectrum characteristics and Miner’s law.

EXTREME ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD MODELS FOR WAVE AND CURRENT RESPONSE SURFACE METHOD

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zafarullah Nizamani ◽  
Yap Eng Ching ◽  
Mohamed Mubarak Bin Abdul Wahab ◽  
Abdullateef Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Response Surface ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
State Function ◽  
Current Response ◽  
Environmental Load ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Load Model ◽  
Load Models

The three most uncertain environmental design loads acting on offshore structures are wave height, current and wind velocity. If the reliability of structure is to be determined, then we need to have limit state function for load which requires that we should transform the environmental loads into load model. Load model, which predicts the load, will ultimately affect the design resistance and thus its final impact on cost could be large. Since, there are many offshore structures located in different offshore regions in Malaysia, the calibration of the environmental load model, should be evaluated to determine which model fits best. To obtain the environmental load model, response surface technique is generally applied. Load models suggested by DNV and ISO code are analysed to determine the best model fit for local conditions of Malaysia. Base shear, wave height and current velocity are used in a linear fit to determine polynomial response surface. The results showed that due to the geography of Malaysia different regions might have to use specific load models instead of a general load model for all regions.

Safety and Reliability Analysis of Composites Under Low Velocity Impact

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivdayal Patel ◽  
Suhail Ahmad ◽  
Manander Singh
Keyword(s):  
Material Properties ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Composite Plates ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Matrix Cracking ◽  
Low Velocity Impact ◽  
State Function ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Low Velocity ◽  
Velocity Impact

Low velocity impact on composite plates is studied taking material properties and initial velocity as random parameters. Graphite fiber reinforced composite plates are susceptible to damage due to impact by foreign objects and in plane loading. In order to assess the safe load carrying capacity and the probability of failure under impact, dynamic analysis of composite plate subjected to low velocity impact is carried out. Finite element method is used to study impact. During impact, the in-plane damage modes such as matrix cracking, fiber failure and shear cracking are modeled using a failure criterion. The out of plane de-lamination is modeled using cohesive surfaces. The uncertainties associated with the system properties due to the inherent scatter in the geometric and material properties and input loads are modeled in a probabilistic fashion. Random parameters represent various characteristics appearing in the limit state function. The probabilistic analysis and reliability prediction of the system is carried out using Gaussian response surface method and validity of method for the present problem is establish using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure. Sensitivity analysis of the probability of failure with respect to random parameters considered is an important study for design optimization. The safety level qualification is achieved in terms of reliability level targeted. The mean and standard deviations of random variables show an appreciable influence on the probabilistic failure. Systematic changes in the input parameters are governed by the probabilistic sensitivity tools to achieve target reliability.

Pipeline Remaining Life Estimation Based on Concepts of Structural Reliability and Bayesian Inference

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helio da Cunha Bisaggio ◽  
Theodoro Antoun Netto
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Operational Parameters ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Predicted Probability ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
State Functions

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with DNV Recommended Practice RP-F101 [1] formulation to establish the limit state functions of corroded pipes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects to determine the probability of failure at a given time. Bayesian and reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. Thus, a simple method to predict the probability of failure of a corroded pipeline along its operational life is proposed to provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy.

Seismic Reliability of a Fixed Offshore Platform Against Collapse

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Dyanati ◽  
Qindan Huang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Performance ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Shear Capacity ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Base Shear ◽  
Offshore Structure ◽  
Seismic Reliability ◽  
Fixed Offshore Platform

As many jacket type steel platforms have been constructed in the highly active seismic area, seismic reliability evaluation of such structures is desirable. Ultimate limit state (ULS) with base shear capacity and demand can be used to estimate seismic performance of fixed offshore platform against collapse. Base shear capacity is evaluated from pushover analysis on a 3D finite element model of the offshore structure using different load patterns. Base shear demand is calculated from spectral acceleration at a given site and the total mass of the platform. Uncertainties are considered in both capacity and demand evaluations. With the limit state function, seismic fragility of a prototype structure is assessed using reliability analysis. The results indicate that various load patterns affect the seismic performance evaluation. It is also found that the steel yield stress is a critical parameter in the reliability of the steel jacket platforms.

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