Assessment of Fatigue Safety Factors for Deep-Water Risers in Relation to VIV

2005 ◽  
Vol 127 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Trond Stokka Meling ◽  
Carl M. Larsen ◽  
Vidar Berntsen ◽  
Bernie Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Parameter Variations ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Steel Catenary Risers ◽  
Analytical Expressions

Safety factors required to control fatigue damage of deepwater metallic risers caused by vortex-induced vibration (VIV) are considered. Four different riser configurations are studied: Cases I and II: Vertical tensioned 12in. risers suspended from a spar buoy at water depths of 500 and 1500m. Cases III and IV: Steel catenary risers suspended from a spar buoy, both at 1000m. For Case III, the riser diameter is 12in., while for Case IV it is 33in. For each riser configuration, relevant design and analysis parameters which are subject to uncertainty are identified. For these quantities, random variables are established also representing model uncertainties. Subsequently, repeated analyses of fatigue damage are performed by varying the input parameters within representative intervals. The results are applied to fit analytical expressions (i.e., so-called response surfaces) utilized to describe the limit state function and to develop the probabilistic model for reliability analysis of the risers. By combining the random variables for the input parameters with the results from the parameter variations, a relationship between the fatigue safety factor and the failure probability is established for each riser configuration.

Assessment of Fatigue Safety Factors for Deep-Water Risers in Relation to VIV

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Trond Stokka Meling ◽  
Carl M. Larsen ◽  
Vidar Berntsen ◽  
Bernie Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Response Surfaces ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Steel Catenary Risers ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Analytical Expressions

Safety factors required to control fatigue damage of deepwater metallic risers caused by Vortex-Induced Vibration (VIV) are considered. Four different riser configurations are studied: • Case I and II: Vertical tensioned 12” risers suspended from a spar buoy at water depths of 500m and 1500m. • Case III and IV: Steel catenary risers suspended from a spar buoy, both at 1000m. For Case III, the riser diameter is 12”, while for Case IV it is 30”. For each riser configuration, relevant design and analysis parameters which are subject to uncertainty are identified. For these quantities, random variables are established including model uncertainties. Subsequently, repeated analyses of fatigue damage are performed by varying the input parameters within representative intervals. The results are applied to fit analytical expressions (i.e., so-called response surfaces) utilized to describe the limit state function and to develop the probabilistic model for reliability analysis of the risers. By combining the random variables for the input parameters with the results from the parameter variations, the relationship between the fatigue safety factor and the failure probability is established for each riser configuration.

Partial Safety Factors Assessment of Pipes With a Circumferential Surface Flaw

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideo Machida ◽  
Hiromasa Chitose ◽  
Manabu Arakawa
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Resistance ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Surface Flaw ◽  
Flaw Size ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Related Parameter ◽  
Partial Safety Factors

This paper describes the evaluation of partial safety factors (PSF’s) for parameters related to flaw evaluation of pipes which have a circumferential surface flaw, and proposes the important matter which should be pay attention in the setup of the safety factors used in flaw evaluation. PSF’s were evaluated considering randomness of flaw size, a fracture resistance curve (J-R curve) and applied loads using load and resistance factor design method (LRFD). The limit state function is expressed by fracture resistance (resistance-related parameter) and applied J integral (load-related parameter). The measure parameters in the reliability assessment are the flaw size and the J-R curve, and PSF’s of them are larger than those of applied loads. Since the material properties used in the flaw evaluation are generally set to the engineering lower limit of their variation (e.g., 95% lower confidence limit), variation of the flaw size is considered to have important role on flaw evaluation. Therefore, when setting up the safely factors used in Rules on Fitness-for-Service (FFS), it is necessary to take into consideration not only the influence of variation of loads or material strength but the influence of variation of flaw size.

Reliability Methods for Bimodal Distribution With First-Order Approximation1

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhangli Hu ◽  
Xiaoping Du
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Order Approximation ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
State Function ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Basic Random Variable

In traditional reliability problems, the distribution of a basic random variable is usually unimodal; in other words, the probability density of the basic random variable has only one peak. In real applications, some basic random variables may follow bimodal distributions with two peaks in their probability density. When binomial variables are involved, traditional reliability methods, such as the first-order second moment (FOSM) method and the first-order reliability method (FORM), will not be accurate. This study investigates the accuracy of using the saddlepoint approximation (SPA) for bimodal variables and then employs SPA-based reliability methods with first-order approximation to predict the reliability. A limit-state function is at first approximated with the first-order Taylor expansion so that it becomes a linear combination of the basic random variables, some of which are bimodally distributed. The SPA is then applied to estimate the reliability. Examples show that the SPA-based reliability methods are more accurate than FOSM and FORM.

Fatigue Design Margin Evaluation for Carbon and Low-Alloy Steels by Reliability-Based Load and Resistance Factor Method

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Takanashi ◽  
Makoto Higuchi ◽  
Junki Maeda ◽  
Shinsuke Sakai
Keyword(s):  
Applied Stress ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Low Alloy Steels ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Fatigue Data ◽  
Alloy Steels ◽  
Partial Safety Factors ◽  
Two Parameters

This paper discusses the margins of the design fatigue curve in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Codes Section III from a reliability analysis point of view. It is reported that these margins were developed so as to cover uncertainties of fatigue data scatter, size effect, and surface condition[1], but the reasons for them remain unclear. In order to investigate the physical implications of the design margin, a probabilistic approach is taken for the collected fatigue data of carbon and low-alloy steels. In this approach, these three parameters are treated as random variables, and an applied stress is also taken into consideration as a random variable. For the analysis, to begin with, a limit state function for fatigue is proposed. Next, reliability index contours of the design fatigue curves for carbon and low-alloy steels are obtained based on the proposed limit state function. The contours indicate that the margins 2 on stress and 20 on life do not provide equal reliability. The margin 20 on life is more conservative and the margin became a minimum near intersections of the design curves with margins 2 on stress and 20 on life. For practical applications, the partial safety factors (PSF) for the target reliability are computed for all materials and several levels of coefficients of variation (COV) of the applied stress. A sensitivity analysis of the PSFs clarifies that only two parameters, the strength (or the life) and the applied stress, are predominant. Thus, the partial safety factors for these two parameters are proposed in a tabular form.

Fatigue Safety Factors for Flexible Risers Based on Case Specific Reliability Analysis

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernt J. Leira ◽  
Ragnar T. Igland ◽  
Gro S. Baarholm ◽  
Knut A. Farnes ◽  
Dick Percy
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Fatigue Lifetime ◽  
Statistical Variation ◽  
Parametric Studies ◽  
Flexible Risers ◽  
Corrosive Environments ◽  
Wave Induced

In the present paper, fatigue safety factors for flexible risers are assessed. A procedure for reliability analysis of wave-induced fatigue is first described. The procedure is based on performing a number of parametric studies with respect to variables that influence the fatigue lifetime. The results of these parametric studies are subsequently combined with models describing the statistical scatter of the same parameters. By application of this procedure, the safety factors which are required in order to reach specific target reliability levels can be computed. Such safety factors are computed for three specific flexible riser configurations. Different SN -curves which correspond to different corrosive environments are considered. The percentwise contribution from each parameter to the total statistical variation of the limit state function is also quantified.

scholarly journals The Evaluation Of Algorithms For Determination Of The Reliability Index

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 133-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Dudzik ◽  
U. Radoń
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Index ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Vertical Displacement ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
State Function ◽  
Structural Failure

AbstractThe study deals with stability and dynamic problems in bar structures using a probabilistic approach. Structural design parameters are defined as deterministic values and also as random variables, which are not correlated. The criterion of structural failure is expressed by the condition of non-exceeding the admissible load multiplier and condition of non-exceeding the admissible vertical displacement. The Hasofer-Lind index was used as a reliability measure. The primary research tool is the FORM method. In order to verify the correctness of the calculations Monte Carlo and Importance Sampling methods were used. The sensitivity of the reliability index to the random variables was defined. The limit state function is not an explicit function of random variables. This dependence was determined using a numerical procedure, e.g. the finite element methods. The paper aims to present the communication between the STAND reliability analysis program and the KRATA and MES3D external FE programs.

Fatigue strength assessment of ship structures accounting for a coating life and corrosion degradation

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yordan Garbatov
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Fatigue Strength ◽  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Fatigue Reliability ◽  
Hot Spot Stress ◽  
Notch Stress ◽  
Fatigue Limit State

Purpose Fatigue strength and reliability assessment of complex double hull oil tanker structures, based on different local structural finite element approaches, is performed accounting for the uncertainties originating from load, nominal stresses, hot spot stress calculations, weld quality estimations and misalignments and fatigue S-N parameters including the correlation between load cases and the coating life and corrosion degradation. Design/methodology/approach Ship hull wave-induced vertical and horizontal bending moments and pressure are considered in the analysis. Stress analyses are performed based on the nominal, local hot spot and notch stress approaches. A linear elastic finite element analysis is used to determine the stress distribution around the welded details and to estimate structural stresses of all critical locations. Fatigue damage is estimated by employing the Palmgren-Miner approach. The importance of the contribution of each random variable to the uncertainty of the fatigue limit state function is also estimated. The probability of fatigue damage of hot spots is evaluated taking into account random coating life and corrosion wastage. Fatigue reliability, during the service life, is modelled as a system of correlated events. Findings The fatigue analysis showed that the fatigue damage at the hotspot, located at the flange of the stiffener close to the cut-out, is always highest in the cases of the structural hot spot stress and effective notch stress approaches, except for the one of the nominal stress approach. The sensitivities of the fatigue limit state function with respect to changes in the random variables were demonstrated showing that the uncertainty in the fatigue stress estimation and fatigue damage are the most important. Fatigue reliability, modelled as a parallel system of structural hot spots and as a serial system of correlated events (load cases) was evaluated based on the Ditlevsen bounds. As a result of the performed analysis, reliability and Beta reliability indexes of lower and upper bounds were estimated, which are very similar to the ones adopted for ultimate strength collapse as reported in literature. Originality/value This paper develops a very complex fatigue strength and reliability assessment model for analysing a double hull oil tanker structure using different local structural finite element approaches accounting for the associated uncertainties and the correlation between load cases and the coating life and corrosion degradation. The developed model is flexible enough to be applied for analysing different structural failure modes.

Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Mean-Value Second-Order Saddlepoint Approximation

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios I. Papadimitriou ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos
Keyword(s):  
Topology Optimization ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Saddlepoint Approximation ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Second Order ◽  
State Function ◽  
Sensitivity Derivatives ◽  
Reliability Method

A reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) approach is presented using a new mean-value second-order saddlepoint approximation (MVSOSA) method to calculate the probability of failure. The topology optimizer uses a discrete adjoint formulation. MVSOSA is based on a second-order Taylor expansion of the limit state function at the mean values of the random variables. The first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives of the limit state cumulant generating function (CGF), with respect to the random variables in MVSOSA, are computed using direct-differentiation of the structural equations. Third-order sensitivity derivatives, including the sensitivities of the saddlepoint, are calculated using the adjoint approach. The accuracy of the proposed MVSOSA reliability method is demonstrated using a nonlinear mathematical example. Comparison with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) shows that MVSOSA is more accurate than mean-value first-order saddlepoint approximation (MVFOSA) and more accurate than mean-value second-order second-moment (MVSOSM) method. Finally, the proposed RBTO-MVSOSA method for minimizing a compliance-based probability of failure is demonstrated using two two-dimensional beam structures under random loading. The density-based topology optimization based on the solid isotropic material with penalization (SIMP) method is utilized.

Reliability-Based Fatigue Design for Piping Using Spectrum Characteristics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinsuke Sakai ◽  
Jyunki Maeda ◽  
Masahiro Takanashi ◽  
Izumi Satoshi
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Equivalent Stress ◽  
Random Wave ◽  
State Function ◽  
Counting Method ◽  
Random Loading ◽  
Analytical Treatment ◽  
Fatigue Design ◽  
Spectrum Characteristics

A reliability-based approach can play an important role in avoiding excessive conservative design for piping. We showed a formulation for applying the limit state function method to reliability-based fatigue design at the previous PVP conference. Using this method, the reliability can be expressed by two dominant parameters: the distribution of equivalent stress and the distribution of fatigue life. If the equivalent stress under stationary random loading can be related to some specific spectrum parameters, it is expected that reliability-based fatigue design can be achieved under random loading. Fatigue damage under random loading is usually estimated using Miner’s law together with the SN diagram. In applying Miner’s law, the random wave is decomposed to the fatigue range using some counting method. The rainflow cycle counting (RFC) method is widely used as a counting method. In view of design application, however, the estimation of fatigue damage from spectrum characteristics is important, and the RFC method is not necessarily suitable for this purpose because it is rather difficult to use in the analytical treatment. Fortunately, it has been shown that the level crossing counting (LCC) method provides a more conservative estimation when compared with the RFC method and the analytical treatment for the evaluation is available. In this paper, we will show a procedure for reliability-based fatigue design which evaluates fatigue damage using the LCC method, spectrum characteristics and Miner’s law.

scholarly journals Hybrid Reliability Analysis for Spacecraft Docking Lock with Random and Interval Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhang ◽  
Jiwei Qiu ◽  
Pidong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Simple Problem ◽  
State Function ◽  
Limit State Function ◽  
Interval Variables ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Hybrid Reliability

This paper presents a novel procedure based on first-order reliability method (FORM) for structural reliability analysis with hybrid variables, that is, random and interval variables. This method can significantly improve the computational efficiency for the abovementioned hybrid reliability analysis (HRA), while generally providing sufficient precision. In the proposed procedure, the hybrid problem is reduced to standard reliability problem with the polar coordinates, where an n-dimensional limit-state function is defined only in terms of two random variables. Firstly, the linear Taylor series is used to approximate the limit-state function around the design point. Subsequently, with the approximation of the n-dimensional limit-state function, the new bidimensional limit state is established by the polar coordinate transformation. And the probability density functions (PDFs) of the two variables can be obtained by the PDFs of random variables and bounds of interval variables. Then, the interval of failure probability is efficiently calculated by the integral method. At last, one simple problem with explicit expressions and one engineering application of spacecraft docking lock are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document