scholarly journals Premature Deaths, Statistical Lives, and Years of Life Lost: Identification, Quantification, and Valuation of Mortality Risks

Risk Analysis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 674-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
James K. Hammitt ◽  
Peter Morfeld ◽  
Jouni T. Tuomisto ◽  
Thomas C. Erren
2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056147
Author(s):  
Touchanun Komonpaisarn

IntroductionSmoking is an important public health concern. This study is the first that attempts to estimate the economic cost of smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure at home in Thailand.MethodA prevalence-based cost of illness approach following the guideline by WHO is employed.ResultIn 2017, the direct morbidity cost attributable to smoking and SHS exposure at home in Thailand was estimated to be at least US$265.97 million and US$23.66 million, respectively. Indirect morbidity costs from workday loss totalling US$25.04 million can be linked to smoking, while US$1.72 million was the result of SHS exposure at home. Smoking-attributable premature deaths resulted in an opportunity loss to the country equivalent to US$2.48 billion, while the figure was US$181.41 million for SHS exposure at home. Total years of life lost due to smoking and SHS-attributable premature deaths are estimated to have been at least 390 955 years for males and 82 536 years for females. The total economic cost from both types of tobacco exposure amounted to US$2.98 billion, equivalent to 17.41% of Thailand’s current health expenditure or 0.65% of its gross domestic product in 2017.ConclusionSmoking imposed a substantial economic burden on Thailand in 2017. Seven per cent of this cost was imposed on non-smokers sharing a residence with smokers. Females bore 80% of this SHS-related cost. The findings call for prompt responses from public health agencies in Thailand to launch effective tobacco control policies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Tsanova ◽  
S Georgieva ◽  
M Kamburova

Abstract Background Air pollution is a major cause of premature death and disease, and is the single largest environmental health risk. Heart disease and stroke are the most common reasons for premature death attributable to air pollution, followed by lung diseases and lung cancer. This report aims at investigation and comparative analysis of air pollution and mortality related indicators in Bulgaria. Methods Descriptive study design with content analysis is applied on data from accessible national and international databases and publications - Bulgarian National Statistical Institute and The European Environment Agency. To evaluate the health burden attributable to air pollution were used the population-weighted concentration and the estimated number of attributable premature deaths, and the Years of life lost (YLL) per 100 000 inhabitants in 2016. The Ambient Air Quality Directive defines the PM2.5 Average Exposure Indicator which reflects population exposure to PM2.5 and shows the average concentration at urban areas, calculated as a 3-year average. Results In 2015, the level of PM2.5 had to be below 20 µg/m3 in any country. In 2017, concentrations were still above that level in three countries - Slovakia 22, Poland and Bulgaria 24. The largest health impacts in terms of premature deaths and YLL, are observed in central and eastern Europe where the highest concentrations are also observed - Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania and North Macedonia. The premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure in Bulgaria are 13 100, to NO2 - 1 100 and to O3 - 280. The YLL attributable to PM2.5, NO2 and O3 exposure are respectively 1858, 151, 42. All these levels are very high in comparison with other European countries. Conclusions Recognition of the full health and economic cost of air pollution and the benefits of pollution reduction should spur increased use of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and clean-fuel vehicles. This is a necessary investment for Bulgaria's future. Key messages Responsibility for, and tools to tackle, many environmental determinants of health lie outside the direct control of individuals or the health sector alone. Wider societal, intersectoral and population-based public health approach is needed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Jousilahti ◽  
I Vohlonen ◽  
M Vienonen

Abstract Background In 2016 an EU-funded international study of premature deaths and their causes in eight Northern Dimension (ND) partnership and associated countries (Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden) was conducted. Purpose The aim of the study was to examine the present situation and 10-year trends of preventable premature loss of life in countries sharing the same geographical area, but having considerable differences in history and social and economic development. Methods Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) is a method to examine premature avoidable mortality which combines the number of deaths with the age of dying. Based on the WHO definition on premature mortality, CVD deaths (ICD codes I00-I425, I427-I99) before the age of 70 years were considered premature. Age-standardized PYLL-rates per 100,000 person years were calculated in 2003, 2009 and 2013 based on the official mortality statistics of each country. Results Premature CVD mortality and mortality trends varied largely between the participating countries. In 2013, premature CVD mortality was highest in Belarus and lowest in Sweden. Largest relative decrease from 2003 to 2013 was observed in Estonia and smallest in Lithuania. Years of life lost due to premature CVD mortality per 100,000. Country Men 2013 Women 2013 Men and women 2003 Men and women 2013 Relative reduction 2003–2013 Belarus 3235 922 2884 1978 −31% Estonia 1509 444 1607 939 −42% Finland 716 220 681 467 −31% Germany 618 254 638 435 −32% Latvia 2532 633 2158 1512 −30% Lithuania 2442 649 1616 1477 −9% Poland 1482 436 1182 945 −20% Sweden 485 202 462 345 −25% Conclusions Enormous health gain can be achieved by effectively applying evidence-based CVD prevention in Europe. Acknowledgement/Funding European union


2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 1367-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramon Martinez ◽  
Patricia Soliz ◽  
Roberta Caixeta ◽  
Pedro Ordunez

Abstract The analysis of causes impacting on premature mortality is an essential function of public health surveillance. Diverse methods have been used for accurately assessing and reporting the level and trends of premature mortality; however, many have important limitations, particularly in capturing actual early deaths. We argue that the framework of years of life lost (YLL), as conceptualized in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), is a robust and comprehensive measure of premature mortality. Global Burden of Disease study is systematically providing estimates of YLL; however, it is not widely adopted at country level, among other reasons because its conceptual and methodological bases seem to be not sufficiently known and understood. In this paper, we provide the concepts and the methodology of the YLL framework, including the selection of the loss of function that defines the time lost due to premature deaths, and detailed methods for calculating YLL metrics. We also illustrate how to use YLL to quantify the level and trends of premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality in the Americas. The tutorial style of the illustrative example is intended to educate the public health community and stimulate the use of YLL in disease prevention and control programmes at different levels.


2019 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Lillia Magali Estrada Perea ◽  
Alexandra Crispim Boing ◽  
Marco Aurélio Peres ◽  
Antonio Fernando Boing

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the years of life lost by the Brazilian population due to mouth and pharynx cancer from 1979 to 2013, and analyze the temporal trends in the studied period, according to the country’s region, sex and anatomical site. METHODS: The death records were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the data referring to the population, from the censuses of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics of 1980, 1991, 2000, 2010, and from intercensal estimates for the other years. The rates of potential years of life lost were calculated by applying the method suggested by Romeder and McWhinnie, and their trends were calculated using the Prais-Winsten method with firstorder autocorrelation. The historical series were smoothed with the centered moving average technique of third order for white noise reduction. RESULTS: In the period from 1979 to 2013 in Brazil, there were a total of 107,506 premature deaths due to mouth and pharynx cancer, which generated a total of 1,589,501 potential years of life lost, the equivalent to a rate of 3.6 per 10,000 inhabitants. Males, whose rate was six times higher than for females, contributed with 85% of the years lost. The trends in the rates of years of life lost showed an annual 0.72% increase for men, 1.13% for women and 1.05% for pharynx cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of potential years of life lost due to mouth and pharynx cancer in the country showed an upward trend within the studied period for both sexes, as well as for pharynx cancer and for the North, Northeast and Midwest regions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 626-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikko A Vienonen ◽  
Pekka J Jousilahti ◽  
Karolina Mackiewicz ◽  
Rafael G Oganov ◽  
Vital M Pisaryk ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Objective was to measure preventable premature loss of life in countries from same geographical area but with considerable differences in social and economic development. By comparing inter-country differences and similarities in premature mortality, acceleration of health-in-all-policies is enhanced. Methods Preventable premature deaths were described by Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL). Data consisted of death registers for 2003, 2009 and 2013. PYLL-rates were age-standardized by using standard OECD population from 1980 and expressed as sum of lost life years per 100 000 citizens. Results In Northern Dimension area, PYLL-rates had declined from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, worst PYLL-rate was in Belarus 9851 and best in Sweden 2511. PYLL-rates among men were twice as high as among women. Most premature losses (1023) were due to external causes. Malignant neoplasms came second (921) and vascular diseases third (816). Alcohol was also an important cause (270) and country differences were over 10-fold. Conclusions In ND-area, the overall development of public health has been good during 2003–13. Nevertheless, for all countries foci for public health improvement and learning from each other could be identified. Examining the health of populations in countries from relatively similar geographical area with different social history and cultures can provide them with evidence-based tools for health-in-all-policies to advocate health promotion and disease prevention. Gender differences due to preventable premature deaths are striking. The higher the national PYLL-rate, the bigger the PYLL-rate difference between men and women and the loss of human capital.


2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Plinio Tadeu Istilli ◽  
Carla Regina de Souza Teixeira ◽  
Maria Lúcia Zanetti ◽  
Rafael Aparecido Dias Lima ◽  
Marta Cristiane Alves Pereira ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze premature mortality and Potential Years of Life Lost by noncommunicable diseases in a city in the countryside of São Paulo from 2010 to 2014. Methods: ecological study of temporal tendency, using secondary source. For analysis, the premature mortality coefficient and the Potential Years of Life Lost indicator were used. Results: males had the highest premature mortality rate due to cardiovascular disease, with 213.04 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants, followed by neoplasms, with 188.44. In women, there was an inversion with 134.22 deaths from cancer and 110.71 deaths from cardiovascular disease. Regarding Potential Years of Life Lost, males had an average of 12.19 years lost by death and females of 13.45 years lost. Conclusions: the results reinforce the need to increase public health prevention and promotion policies to reduce premature deaths, especially among men.


2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Mirzaei ◽  
Mahboobehsadat Mirzadeh ◽  
Mohsen Mirzaei

Objectives: Prostate cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths. The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to a disease can be used to monitor health status, assess healthcare needs and determine the prioritisation and allocation of health resources within a population; in addition, the latter calculation can serve as a baseline indicator of premature mortality. This study aimed to measure prostate cancer-related mortality and YLL in Yazd Province, Iran. Methods: This study included all prostate cancer-related deaths in Yazd Province reported between March 2001 and March 2010. Mortality data were obtained from a provincial death registration system which integrates data from different sources. YLL was calculated based on an individual’s age at death and their life expectancy according to age group. Results: During the study period, prostate cancer was the fourth most common fatal cancer among men, resulting in 324 deaths or 10.0% of all cancer-related deaths. The crude mortality rate per 100,000 individuals increased from 4.7 in 2001 to 8.8 in 2010. Premature deaths caused 1,358.7 YLL and the YLL caused by prostate cancer deaths more than doubled from 94.7 in 2001 to 196.5 in 2010. Conclusion: Due to changes in population structure, it is likely that the burden of prostate cancer will continue to increase in Yazd Province. As such, it is necessary that the national health system implements screening programmes and improvespublic awareness of prostate cancer-associated risk factors.


Author(s):  
Amal K. Mitra ◽  
Marinelle Payton ◽  
Nusrat Kabir ◽  
April Whitehead ◽  
Kimberly N. Ragland ◽  
...  

Today, the world is facing the challenge of a major pandemic due to COVID-19, which has caused more than 6.1 million cases of infection and nearly 370,000 deaths so far. Most of the deaths from the disease are clustered in the older population, but the young and children are not spared. In this context, there is a critical need to revisit the formula for calculating potential years of life lost (PYLL). Data on age-specific deaths due to COVID-19 in three countries, including the United States (US), Italy, and Germany, were evaluated. New York State, as a significant outlier within the US, was also included. PYLLs in the US were five times as high as those of Italy. Compared with Germany, PYLLs in Italy were 4 times higher, and the rates in the US were 23, 25, and 18 times higher when using upper age limits of 70, 75, and 80, respectively. Standardized PYLLs in New York were 2 times as high as the rates in Italy, and 7 to 9 times as high as PYLLs in Germany. The revised formula of PYLL, using an upper limit of age 80, is recommended to accurately measure premature deaths due to a major disastrous disease such as COVID-19.


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e038131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Skajaa ◽  
Anne Gulbech Ording ◽  
Bianka Darvalics ◽  
Erzsebet Horvath-Puho ◽  
Henrik Toft Sørensen

ObjectivesTo examine the long-term outcomes for patients hospitalised with chronic diseases at age 30, 40 or 50 years.DesignNationwide, population-based cohort study.SettingAll Danish hospitals, 1979–1989, with follow-up through 2014.ParticipantsPatients hospitalised during the study period with one, two or three or more chronic diseases and age-matched and sex-matched persons from the general population without chronic disease leading to hospitalisation: age-30 group: 13 857 patients and 69 285 comparators; age-40 group: 24 129 patients and 120 645 comparators; and age-50 group, 37 807 patients and 189 035 comparators.Main outcome measuresTwenty-five-year mortality risks based on Kaplan-Meier estimates, years-of-life-lost (YLLs) and mortality rate ratios based on Cox regression analysis. YLLs were computed for each morbidity level, as well as in strata of income, employment, education and psychiatric conditions.ResultsTwenty-five-year mortality risks and YLLs increased steadily with increasing number of morbidities leading to hospitalisation and age, but the risk difference with general population comparators remained approximately constant across age cohorts. In the age-30 cohort, the risk differences for patients compared with comparators were 35.0% (95% CI 32.5 to 37.5) with two diseases and 62.5% (54.3% to 70.3%) with three or more diseases. In the age-50 cohort, these differences were, respectively, 48.4% (47.4 to 49.3) and 61.7% (60.1% to 63.0%). Increasing morbidity burden augmented YLLs resulting from low income, unemployment, low education level and psychiatric conditions. In the age-30 cohort, YYLs attributable to low income were 2.4 for patients with one disease, 6.2 for patients with two diseases and 11.5 for patients with three or more diseases.ConclusionsAmong patients with multiple chronic diseases, the risk of death increases steadily with the number of chronic diseases and with age. Multimorbidity augments the already increased mortality among patients with low socioeconomic status.


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