Bosnian Serbs are closest yet to seceding

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Member State ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
Take Back ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Republika Srpska

Subject Dodik’s latest threat to break up Bosnia. Significance Bosnian Serb politicians are blocking the work of state institutions, threatening to take back powers transferred to the state and mulling a secession referendum for the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) entity. Their demands are so radical as to preclude negotiations, let alone compromise. Impacts The secession issue will dominate all parties’ electioneering. Nationalism will distract from Bosnia’s socio-economic problems, which are not being addressed. Emigration, which has reduced the population by an estimated one-fifth since 1991, will continue. New EU foreign policy chief Josep Borell wants a “more decisive” foreign policy but will be held back by member state divisions.

Opposition weakness will help Polish ruling coalition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Independent State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Party Control ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Law ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance At the beginning of 2021, the ZP coalition of the Law and Justice (PiS), Accord and United Poland (SP) parties is stable, but not as strong as it has been in previous years. This weakening in the PiS-led government’s condition is due to many factors, among which the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important. Impacts The process will continue of subordinating any independent state institutions still left to party control. PiS will take further, similar steps regarding the media, academia and NGOs. After months of pandemic lockdown, the state of the economy is stable if not ideal, and will not lead to early elections.

scholarly journals Próby modernizacji pozycji i funkcjonowania parlamentów w warunkach kryzysowych

2012 ◽  
pp. 43-72
Author(s):  
Joachim Osiński
Keyword(s):  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The State ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Special Interests ◽  
Industrial Services ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Decision Making Processes

The 2007+ financial crisis, which also had an impact on real economy, paradoxically resulted in an increase of states’ activity in economy and in the growth of expectations of citizens towards states. The crisis makes them see the state as the only institution able to guarantee financial and social safety as well as orderly development of global economy in future. The article tries to answer the following question: is the state able to secure that feeling of safety and society’s ability to develop, and will the incoming crises influence the modification of horizontal and vertical extent of functions of the modern state? The question whether modern states modernize or not, disregarding economic, social, cultural and military crises, is also a subject of preliminary analysis. The 2007+ economic crisis caused an increase in state activities in fields both related to economic problems and providing social and financial safety for citizens. The modernization of state institutions (the state considered as ontological being, i.e. is not identified with any present day state) is not related to crises. The internal institutions of state, as parliaments and executive are also modernized to a certain extent. The analyses of Scandinavian, US and Canadian parliaments included in the article prove that the parliaments use the legislative possibilities and increase the scope of control activities performed during crisis. Occasionally this leads to constitution infringement (US Congress). On other occasions special parliamentary commissions and direct democracy institutions are used (Iceland). During a crisis a phenomenon of „financial world imperialism” emerges. It is something more than financialization of real economy (industrial, services and agriculture). It is a trend leading to the  subordination of all the other spheres of activity of states and societies, including politics, law and culture. It is observed in contemporary highly developed societies as well as in some countries of „peripheral capitalism”. This trend is visible when democracy is used, including parliamentary procedures and decision-making processes in executive, to advance special interests of the financial world, its continuity and its profits.

Honduras transparency body may fail to meet demands

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Judicial Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
American States ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Set Up ◽  
And Training

Subject A new anti-corruption body has been put in place in Honduras. Significance On January 19, the Organization of American States (OAS) signed an agreement with Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez to set up an anti-corruption mission in the country. The mission, known as the Mission for Support against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH), will work to improve the judicial process with particular focus on anti-corruption cases. Impacts The MACCIH is likely to trigger protests by groups who wanted a different type of international mission. Vested interests within the state will see attempts to divert the mission's attention to corruption networks outside of state institutions. Cleaning up and training the judiciary will be a key aim for the MACCIH, but will be met with resistance from long-serving judges. The failure of the MACCIH could undermine the credibility of the OAS both within Honduras and more widely.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

Member states will drive EU foreign policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
National Defence ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.

EU foreign policy fragmentation will increase

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Predominant Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
Competition Rules ◽  
National Champions ◽  
The Eu

Subject Structural challenges to EU foreign policy. Significance The EU lacks a consolidated foreign policy: member states play a predominant role in external affairs. However, given such domestic challenges as political fragmentation, adverse demographic change and rising populism, national foreign policy faces a future of more volatility and uncertainty. This could increase the need to bolster the EU’s foreign policy powers. Impacts Positions on Russian sanctions and the Iran nuclear deal show the Council able to form a consensus on some important external issues. Germany and France will push for changed EU competition rules to allow ‘national champions’ to emerge against Chinese and US competitors. Regional neighbours in Northern and Southern Europe may deepen inter-governmentalism and cooperation, respectively. The EU could become a global trendsetter in climate change, especially if Germany and Poland agree to carbon neutrality by 2050.

Young Russians are increasingly prepared to protest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Due Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Speaking Out ◽  
The People ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Do So

Significance Although Ustinov, 23, says he was not even part of the demonstration, his case became a cause celebre pointing to a gulf between the Kremlin and the people, particularly a younger generation that seems less fearful of speaking out. The court's unusual step reflects concerns that the case against Ustinov is fabricated, and that tough action against protesters compounded with indifference to due process risks a loss of legitimacy for the state. Impacts Russians, including the young, are losing trust in state institutions across the board. Many in the younger age-group are considering emigration, and have the personal and other resources to do so. Environmental protests are more likely to be given official authorisation than political events.

Polls boost Modi's plans for economy and 2019 in India

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Opposition Movement ◽  
Legislative Assembly

Significance The victories were on a scale he is unlikely to have anticipated -- and which the exit polls certainly did not. Predicted, at best, to win a bare majority in the 403-seat UP legislative assembly, his BJP secured 325 seats, as well as 57 of 70 in Uttarakhand. The triumph is very much his own rather than the party’s since the latter did much less well in three other state elections where he was less directly involved. Impacts Labour laws are likely to top Modi’s legislative agenda once his party’s strength in the upper house of parliament improves in 2018. Absent a coherent and well-organised opposition movement, Modi’s is highly likely to win a second term in 2019. The state election results are unlikely to have a direct impact on Modi’s foreign policy.

Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

Desperation will drive Bosnian Serb leader's choices

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
20Th Anniversary ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Imf

Subject The proposed Bosnian Serb referendum on the state-level judiciary. Significance The Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska (RS) is proposing a referendum challenging the authority of the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) judiciary and Bosnia's weakened international supervisor, the high representative. The initiative comes amid already heightened tensions relating to the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre. Such a referendum would challenge Bosnia's territorial and constitutional sovereignty. Impacts A strongly worded US embassy statement on the referendum has warned of possible legal actions against the RS leadership. The EU reaction has been softer, reflecting diverging US-EU views of the seriousness of the problem and how to resolve it. Failing agreement on a reform programme with the IMF, Bosnia's two entities must turn to private lenders to finance budget deficits.

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