Polls boost Modi's plans for economy and 2019 in India

Significance The victories were on a scale he is unlikely to have anticipated -- and which the exit polls certainly did not. Predicted, at best, to win a bare majority in the 403-seat UP legislative assembly, his BJP secured 325 seats, as well as 57 of 70 in Uttarakhand. The triumph is very much his own rather than the party’s since the latter did much less well in three other state elections where he was less directly involved. Impacts Labour laws are likely to top Modi’s legislative agenda once his party’s strength in the upper house of parliament improves in 2018. Absent a coherent and well-organised opposition movement, Modi’s is highly likely to win a second term in 2019. The state election results are unlikely to have a direct impact on Modi’s foreign policy.

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.


Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.


Significance The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), together with its Basij militia, has partly restored its reputation for effective action. At the same time, new local civil society groups have mobilised. Impacts The state will likely increase its role in the ailing economy, creating cooperatives and centralised trading mechanisms. The Expediency Council would become a key actor if the government were challenged by conservative forces. The lack of effective cooperation from European partners will shift Iran’s foreign policy further towards China and Russia.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleksandr D. Dovhan ◽  
Oleksandr M. Yurchenko ◽  
Juliana O. Naidon ◽  
Oleg S. Peliukh ◽  
Nataliia I. Tkachuk ◽  
...  

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop the Counterintelligence Strategy as a conceptual document in the field of state security of Ukraine, identifying current security threats to Ukraine, which global landscape has been significantly transformed since the adoption of the Law of Ukraine “On Counterintelligence”, is substantiated. It is proved that the provisions of such Strategy should determine the current and projected counterintelligence environment via a set of the following elements. The nature of real and potential threats in the process of implementing state foreign and domestic policy course determined by Ukraine. Sources of such threats (individual states and their intelligence agencies, terrorist organizations, transnational organized crime, etc.). Features of the identified encroachment objects of foreign intelligence agencies, terrorist and other criminal organizations, including transnational ones. Long time strategy treats like COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach During the past decades of the XXI century, intelligence has become a crucial tool in the system of determining and implementing the foreign policy in international relations. Modern realities confirm that this political and legal phenomenon directly affects the formation of the foreign policy course of any state, the development of its geopolitical strategy and defense doctrine. Possessing a powerful apparatus for obtaining primary information, fulfillment of government orders for monitoring, evaluation, analysis, forecasting and modeling of possible scenarios of global- or regional-scale events and processes, special services take an active part in perspective and current foreign and domestic policy implementation. Findings Thus, based on the state security paradigm, which cannot be defined in the absence of threats and ensured by their complete elimination, since negative factors for state security objects will always exist, the ensuring of its development requires first of all creation of the conditions under which threats will not be able to limit its development. That is why it is necessary not only to minimize the impact of such factors on vulnerable objects, but also to create a certain “immunity” to their impact, i.e. the ability of the state security system to function effectively in spite of the negative impact. Thus, maintaining the ability to function in terms of the existing threats is the most important area of practical activity for the state security protection, as well as ensuring the legitimate interests of the state. Originality/value During the paper decades of the XXI century, intelligence has become a crucial tool in the system of determining and implementing the foreign policy in international relations. Modern realities confirm that this political and legal phenomenon directly affects the formation of the foreign policy course of any state, the development of its geopolitical strategy and defense doctrine. Possessing a powerful apparatus for obtaining primary information, fulfillment of government orders for monitoring, evaluation, analysis, forecasting and modeling of possible scenarios of global- or regional-scale events and processes, special services take an active part in perspective and current foreign and domestic policy implementation.


Significance On December 18, two months after Michel Aoun was elected president of Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad Hariri finally announced agreement on a ‘government of national accord’. The new Lebanese cabinet, which is strongly tilted towards Hezbollah, a Shia political-military grouping, has begun drafting a policy statement of its political and economic goals, which must be presented to parliament within 30 days. Impacts The new government will focus on internal stability and security, including control of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. Rising economic confidence could boost foreign investment. Syrian and Iranian influence over Lebanese foreign policy could increase. The new cabinet will support Hezbollah’s military role within the state and abroad.


Subject The June 5 state election results. Significance According to preliminary results, President Enrique Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only five of the twelve state gubernatorial elections held on June 5. In contrast, the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) won seven -- four on its own and three in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which did not obtain a single governorship by itself. The radical, leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) performed particularly well in Veracruz and Zacatecas, where it won between one-quarter and one-third of the vote, although it did not win any governorships. Impacts Alliances of ideological opposites PAN and PRD are electorally effective and may see them win the State of Mexico in 2017. Nevertheless, the PAN will have little incentive to join forces with a weak PRD for the presidential election in 2018. While Morena did not win any governorship, leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now well positioned ahead of 2018.


Subject Dodik’s latest threat to break up Bosnia. Significance Bosnian Serb politicians are blocking the work of state institutions, threatening to take back powers transferred to the state and mulling a secession referendum for the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) entity. Their demands are so radical as to preclude negotiations, let alone compromise. Impacts The secession issue will dominate all parties’ electioneering. Nationalism will distract from Bosnia’s socio-economic problems, which are not being addressed. Emigration, which has reduced the population by an estimated one-fifth since 1991, will continue. New EU foreign policy chief Josep Borell wants a “more decisive” foreign policy but will be held back by member state divisions.


Significance The nationally ruling, Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to retain its majority in the legislative assembly. Meanwhile, petitions have been filed with courts in certain districts of the state seeking removal of mosques which the plaintiffs say were constructed illegally on sites where Hindu temples formerly stood. Impacts BJP strategists will in the coming months step up efforts to appeal to the party’s Hindu nationalist base in UP. Victory for the BJP in the UP elections would boost the party’s morale after mixed results in 2021 state polls. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath could be a future prime ministerial candidate.


1989 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-28
Author(s):  
Jerome M. Segal
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraysha Bibi Ismail Sooliman

This paper considers the effect of violence on the emotions of IS fighters and the resultant consequences of those emotions as a factor in their choice to use violence. By interrogating the human aspect of the fighters, I am focusing not on religion but on human agency as a factor in the violence. In this regard, this paper is about reorienting the question about the violence of IS not as “religious” violence but as a response to how these fighters perceive what is happening to them and their homeland. It is about politicising the political, about the violence of the state and its coalition of killing as opposed to a consistent effort to frame the violence into an explanation of “extremist religious ideology.” This shift in analysis is significant because of the increasing harm that is caused by the rise in Islamophobia where all Muslims are considered “radical” and are dehumanised. This is by no means a new project; rather it reflects the ongoing project of distortion of and animosity toward Islam, the suspension of ethics and the naturalisation of war. It is about an advocacy for war by hegemonic powers and (puppet regimes) states against racialised groups in the name of defending liberal values. Furthermore, the myth of religious violence has served to advance the goals of power which have been used in domestic and foreign policy to marginalise and dehumanise Muslims and to portray the violence of the secular state as a justified intervention in order to protect Western civilisation and the secular subject.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document