Currency controls will not curb crisis in Argentina

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Government

Significance The surprisingly ample victory of opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez over President Mauricio Macri in the August 11 presidential primaries triggered a currency run and a sharp fall in international reserves and led the government to announce a “voluntary reprofiling” of short-term debt. The announcement was interpreted as a default, worsening investor expectations. The debt crisis puts the political transition at stake, with nearly two months before the general election and over three months until a new administration takes office in December. Impacts Following a new debt crisis, capital markets will be closed, forcing a sharper fiscal adjustment. The financial crisis will delay any economic rebound and worsen social indicators. The fragile fiscal situation will inhibit implementation of any ‘populist’ measures by the new government. The structural reform agenda will make some progress, though more slowly than expected.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

Loyalty concerns mount for Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The Political ◽  
Education Spending ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

Subject Mounting political challenges. Significance Amid internal criticism over budget cuts and street protests over reductions in education spending, President Lenin Moreno on November 22 asked his whole cabinet to resign. The decision illustrates the difficulties facing Moreno in managing his government and party and in maintaining support, as he tries to pull his administration towards the political centre. Anti-corruption efforts have further complicated this task, with investigations opening political wounds and implicating members of the government, including Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicuna. Impacts Dialogue with social and political actors may help ease resistance to budget cuts in the short term, but fiscal pressures will persist. Protests will increase as cuts start to bite and Correa supporters and other sociopolitical actors mobilise their bases. Lower oil prices would constrain the government, threatening its austerity programme and raising the need for external borrowing in 2019.

COVID-19 colours Trinidad and Tobago election outlook

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government

Significance The two main political parties, the governing People’s National Movement (PNM) and the opposition United National Congress (UNC) are jockeying for position, while internal divisions and efforts by smaller parties to make a breakthrough are further muddying the political waters. Impacts The number of small parties will make the election outcome more uncertain, with 19 parties and 150 candidates participating. The short-term ‘bounce’ enjoyed by the government owing to its COVID-19 response may favour the PNM. The outlook for both crime and economic recovery looks uncertain whatever the election outcome.

New moves will not ease confidence crisis in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

Significance The moves followed a peso depreciation of nearly 21% during the last week of August. The measures aim to ease investor doubts over the government’s ability to overcome the financial crisis given its political weakness, different viewpoints within the economic team and its erratic fiscal and monetary policy. The IMF is expected to confirm that it will release the funds necessary to avoid a possible new sovereign default. Impacts Exchange rate weakness will drive inflation, while the fiscal adjustment will boost unemployment and deepen the recession. Early IMF disbursements will ease concerns for 2019, but doubts will surge if the government fails to achieve ambitious fiscal targets. Social protests will escalate, possibly putting governability at risk.

Tribunes and Patricians: Fringe Parties in the 21st Century

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Nedelcu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Structural Shifts

The mid and late 2000s witnessed a proliferation of political parties in European party systems. Marxist, Libertarian, Pirate, and Animal parties, as well as radical-right and populist parties, have become part of an increasingly heterogeneous political spectrum generally dominated by the mainstream centre-left and centre-right. The question this article explores is what led to the surge of these parties during the first decade of the 21st century. While it is tempting to look at structural arguments or the recent late-2000s financial crisis to explain this proliferation, the emergence of these parties predates the debt-crisis and can not be described by structural shifts alone . This paper argues that the proliferation of new radical parties came about not only as a result of changes in the political space, but rather due to the very perceived presence and even strengthening of what Katz and Mair (1995) famously dubbed the "cartelization" of mainstream political parties.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v7i1.210

Pandemic may drive new wealth taxes in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Wealth Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

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