Loyalty concerns mount for Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The Political ◽  
Education Spending ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

Subject Mounting political challenges. Significance Amid internal criticism over budget cuts and street protests over reductions in education spending, President Lenin Moreno on November 22 asked his whole cabinet to resign. The decision illustrates the difficulties facing Moreno in managing his government and party and in maintaining support, as he tries to pull his administration towards the political centre. Anti-corruption efforts have further complicated this task, with investigations opening political wounds and implicating members of the government, including Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicuna. Impacts Dialogue with social and political actors may help ease resistance to budget cuts in the short term, but fiscal pressures will persist. Protests will increase as cuts start to bite and Correa supporters and other sociopolitical actors mobilise their bases. Lower oil prices would constrain the government, threatening its austerity programme and raising the need for external borrowing in 2019.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Epidemic may shake Chad's government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mission Operation

Subject COVID-19 impact on Chad. Significance Chad has a relatively low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases but appears quite vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic, especially the economic impact. The country’s highly rural and youthful demography may help to slow the spread and keep the death rate low. Yet low oil prices, a return to recession and a new wave of sector-specific protests could pose major challenges for the government. Impacts Chad's epidemic appears unlikely to affect France’s Sahel counterterrorism mission Operation Barkhane, headquartered in Chad. A bottom-up revolution appears unlikely, and no major rebel challengers appear poised to take advantage of COVID-19 and associated crises. President Idriss Deby's government appears unlikely to fall in the short term -- French backing will continue to ensure his survival.

Economic downturn may be on the horizon in Ecuador

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Economic challenges. Significance In the first quarter, Ecuador’s economy grew at its weakest pace since the 2016 recession. The government is facing significant challenges in implementing a recently agreed IMF programme, while President Lenin Moreno’s popularity has plummeted following unpopular, but arguably necessary, spending cuts. Impacts Dollar appreciation and a tightening of global financing conditions would weaken Ecuador’s competitiveness. Short-term, the current account deficit will narrow, as rising oil prices support export growth and the slowdown weighs on import demand. Moreno’s diminishing popularity will exacerbate uncertainty around implementation of the IMF programme.

Guinea-Bissau deadlock will threaten fragile growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Court Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance A month previously, the ECOWAS had reiterated its displeasure over the lack of progress in resolving the ongoing political impasse and issued an ultimatum to political actors to implement the 2016 Conakry Agreement or face sanctions. The UN has also threatened to initiate punitive measures if the political situation deteriorates further between President Jose Mario Vaz and his ruling party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Impacts Given the risk of a military coup, ECOWAS is likely to retain some of its troops until after the 2018 legislative election. A court action by two banks against the government could endanger IMF loans and donors' budgetary support. Ongoing political instability could lead to increased activities by organised criminal and terrorist networks.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

Currency controls will not curb crisis in Argentina

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Government

Significance The surprisingly ample victory of opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez over President Mauricio Macri in the August 11 presidential primaries triggered a currency run and a sharp fall in international reserves and led the government to announce a “voluntary reprofiling” of short-term debt. The announcement was interpreted as a default, worsening investor expectations. The debt crisis puts the political transition at stake, with nearly two months before the general election and over three months until a new administration takes office in December. Impacts Following a new debt crisis, capital markets will be closed, forcing a sharper fiscal adjustment. The financial crisis will delay any economic rebound and worsen social indicators. The fragile fiscal situation will inhibit implementation of any ‘populist’ measures by the new government. The structural reform agenda will make some progress, though more slowly than expected.

Algerian efforts to reduce imports lack conviction

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Subject The car import debate and dynamics of the social contract. Significance A longstanding weakness of the Algerian economy has been its overdependence on oil and gas for income, and on imports for consumption. The risks of this dependence were exposed when oil prices halved in the final quarter of 2014. The government has responded by trying to revive investment in both the oil and non-oil economy, and by seeking to curb imports. One important aspect of this latter policy -- new restrictions on car imports -- has sparked significant public debate and raised questions about the government's competence and political will. Impacts If the oil price sustains its recent rally to 60-65 dollars per barrel, the government will have some time to adjust. It would also allow the political elite to maintain the current balance of power. Algeria will not close its markets to foreign imports so long as it continues to seek WTO membership.

COVID-19 colours Trinidad and Tobago election outlook

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Government

Significance The two main political parties, the governing People’s National Movement (PNM) and the opposition United National Congress (UNC) are jockeying for position, while internal divisions and efforts by smaller parties to make a breakthrough are further muddying the political waters. Impacts The number of small parties will make the election outcome more uncertain, with 19 parties and 150 candidates participating. The short-term ‘bounce’ enjoyed by the government owing to its COVID-19 response may favour the PNM. The outlook for both crime and economic recovery looks uncertain whatever the election outcome.

Azerbaijan needs diversification despite gas growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exploratory Drilling ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing ◽  
The Impact

Significance The slump was caused by low oil prices and left a legacy of higher debt and banking fragility. The slowdown pushed the government into reviewing the fiscal framework and placing renewed emphasis on economic diversification. Impacts The objective of increasing domestic financing as an alternative to external borrowing may prompt reforms to financial intermediation. The legacy of financial stress will constrain future credit expansion and hence the impact of diversification efforts. If BP's exploratory drilling in 2019-20 reveals new reserves, hydrocarbons' continuing dominance will be assured.

Socio-political goals and responses to the reconstruction of the Chilean city of Constitución

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Romero ◽  
Cristian Albornoz
Keyword(s):  
Good Governance ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
The Political ◽  
Complete Evaluation ◽  
Local Society ◽  
Reconstruction Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Government

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the political and economic objectives sought by the government of Chile to understand the characteristics of the reconstruction process for housing damaged by the earthquake and tsunami of 27 February 2010, contrasted with the opinions of the target communities, the instruments that were utilized and the generation of new vulnerabilities. Design/methodology/approach – The governmental objectives have been compiled from speeches publicized by the press and obtained from interviews with players from the public and community sectors. The areas of reconstruction in the city of Constitución have been represented in a geographical information system. The opinions of the community have been gathered through a survey conducted amongst the new residents. Findings – Case analysis shows that the political and economic efforts during the reconstruction process were focused on proving the success of the methods used: public-private alliances and consultation with the communities to precede reconstruction of housing and urban infrastructure. However, the results of the reconstruction process do neither reveal good governance nor functionality of the reconstructed areas. Research limitations/implications – The results cannot be applied to other localities devastated by the 2010 earthquake and tsunami in Chile, nor to other institutional or economic contexts. It is also necessary to observe the process of adaptation of the communities over a longer time period to verify the increase in vulnerability. Practical implications – The paper constitutes a complete evaluation of the reconstruction process that prompts institutional changes. Social implications – A contrast is offered between the objectives and actions of the diverse social and political actors, and the contradictions in their speeches and actions are shown. Originality/value – An unprecedented process is analysed in which a developing country uses its own resources to undertake a reconstruction under a political rhetoric that is not necessarily shared by the local society that must finally assume the additional costs.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document