Russian arms procurement faces fiscal constraints

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Russian Military

Subject Russian defence spending and procurement. Significance The recent shift in government spending towards social and economic development is being achieved without upsetting strict budgetary discipline, but defence and security expenditure is declining as a share of GDP. Limited procurement plans make life more challenging for the defence industry than for nearly a decade. Impacts Defence firms will find it hard to export weapon types that the Russian military does not want. The GDP growth boost of 2018 is likely to give way to growth of around 1.0-1.5% in 2019, as tax rises dampen economic activity. Higher-than-projected oil prices might allow some surplus budgetary funds to be used to top up planned defence spending commitments.

Russian economic strategy will mix diverse approaches

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Development Plans

Significance The Kremlin is open to a range of viewpoints, and various plans are being drafted to avoid stagnation and reignite the growth rates of the 2000s. Impacts International oil production curbs may help oil prices to rise in the second half of 2017, boosting Russian growth. This extra boost will help fund short-term electoral spending on social programmes. All economic development plans will have to incorporate robust defence spending into their plans.

Japan GDP growth will rely on exports and wage rises

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force

Significance Foreign trade accounted for almost the entire increase, more than making up for declines in household consumption and government spending. Impacts The government will claim credit for growth, but voters will see this as theoretical unless incomes rise faster. Strong GDP growth will make it hard to argue against raising the sales tax as scheduled in 2019. Economic growth and a shrinking labour force will force employers to raise compensation eventually. Japan is vulnerable externally if oil prices rise further or the Fed hikes rates too fast.

State capitalism and clusters: the case of Brazilian shipbuilding

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank L. DuBois ◽  
Marcos Andre Mendes Primo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Industrial Clusters ◽  
The Body ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
State Capitalism ◽  
Shipbuilding Industry ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – State capitalism is an economic model that relies on the role of a strong central government to support chosen firms and industries with subsidies, tax benefits and other advantages to which non-favored firms or industries do not have access (Bremmer, 2010). From an economic development perspective state capitalism is often used to redirect economic activity to underdeveloped regions (Wickham, 2009; Chobanyan and Leigh, 2006; Porter, 2008). The purpose of this paper is to examine the case of the Brazilian shipbuilding to illustrate the use of state capitalism to direct economic activity. Design/methodology/approach – Using Porter’s diamond factor model the authors analyze the development of an economic cluster focussed on the shipbuilding industry in northeastern Brazil. Using interviews with company executives and archival information, the authors profile the investments and incentives that the government has made in this region with particular attention to the mechanisms and policy directives designed to support local involvement in cluster activity. Findings – The authors find that the Brazilian shipbuilding industry offers a unique perspective on the role that governments play in the inducement of economic activity. The authors document the challenges that confront the local enterprise in meeting the requirements of the state controlled buyer and the difficulties associated with developing a local supplier base and finding a qualified workforce. The authors conclude with comments with regard to the applicability of this model to economic development activity in other country contexts. Research limitations/implications – This research adds to the body of literature on the role of governments in the creation of economic clusters. Practical implications – Economic development in emerging markets is often associated with strong government intervention. The authors use the Brazilian shipbuilding industry to illustrate the role of a state owned enterprise in facilitation of economic development. Social implications – Some countries may suffer from what has been known as the “resource curse,” that is, the misallocation of resource wealth into non-productive activities. In this paper, the authors illustrate and attempt by the Brazilian government to use this wealth to create employment opportunities in an underdeveloped region of the country. Originality/value – Emerging markets are challenged in developing viable enterprises that are competitive in global markets. Most research on the development of industrial clusters is focussed on developed markets. These markets do not have to confront the same challenges found in emerging markets. The research illustrates these challenges and the efforts that may be made to surmount them.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

China's economy may slow again later this year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Financial Regulations ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for China. Significance Despite fears of a slowdown, China has kept up GDP growth of 6.8% year-on-year for three successive quarters. However, key measures of economic activity have weakened, and tensions are escalating with the United States over trade and technology. Impacts A swathe of new financial regulations and high-profile arrests will likely continue in 2018. Negotiations are likely to alleviate the immediate pressure from Washington, but underlying concerns over the tech sector will continue. A recently announced sweeping government reorganisation will be implemented, helping to tackle financial and environmental risks.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Subject Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2019. Significance GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2019. Despite sluggish growth, macroeconomic stability persists. Government spending is restrained by a prudent fiscal policy framework, the state's borrowing requirements are minimal and inflation remains at an historically low level.

scholarly journals THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON GLOBAL TOURISM

10.26458/1728 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-139
Author(s):  
Bogdan Sofronov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Tourism

Tourism is an important economic activity in most countries around the world. As well as its direct economic impact,the industry has significant indirect and induced impacts.The outlook for the Tourism sector in 2017 remains robust and will continue to be at the forefront of wealth and employment creation in the global economy, despite the emergence of a number of challenging headwinds.In tourism, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8%, up from 3.1% in 2016. As nations seem to be looking increasingly inward, putting in place barriers to trade and movement of people, the role of Tourism becomes even more significant, as an engine of economic development and as a vehicle for sharing cultures, creating peace, and building mutual understanding.

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