External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

US consumption may start to pick up

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Trust Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
The Us

Significance One of the conundrums of the US economy that will influence the Federal Reserve's timing of an interest rate rise (currently projected for September) is where the savings from low energy prices have gone. Oil prices have dropped sharply since September 2014, from 97 dollars per barrel for West Texas Intermediate in June 2014 to 60 dollars per barrel today. Yet US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) only grew by 2.7%, well below the rate of growth of personal income, 4.1%. Impacts Greater spending on petrol will help the Highway Trust Fund slightly, but not before a new funding package is due by July 31. Low oil prices will outweigh consumer savings in such producing states as Texas and North Dakota. Greater consumer spending will adversely affect the US trade balance, as imports will rise due to the strong dollar.

Trinidad and Tobago economy improves despite concerns

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trinidad And Tobago ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Partnerships ◽  
Terrorism Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.

Papua New Guinea may encounter 'resource curse'

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Rating agency Moody’s on March 23 shifted Papua New Guinea (PNG) to 'negative watch', a further indication of the economic challenges facing the re-elected Peter O’Neill government as it prepares to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year. PNG in February suffered its largest earthquake for nearly a century in areas surrounding the largest resource projects in the country. Impacts Despite a planned major expansion in LNG production, recent policy decisions suggest a troubled business environment. Reversals in economic policy, combined with the earthquake, will further depress GDP growth. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is weaving together a large coalition which should cement his position until at least after APEC. Foreign exchange shortages will harm growth and discourage investment, due to fears that firms cannot pay dividends to foreign shareholders.

Russian arms procurement faces fiscal constraints

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Russian Military

Subject Russian defence spending and procurement. Significance The recent shift in government spending towards social and economic development is being achieved without upsetting strict budgetary discipline, but defence and security expenditure is declining as a share of GDP. Limited procurement plans make life more challenging for the defence industry than for nearly a decade. Impacts Defence firms will find it hard to export weapon types that the Russian military does not want. The GDP growth boost of 2018 is likely to give way to growth of around 1.0-1.5% in 2019, as tax rises dampen economic activity. Higher-than-projected oil prices might allow some surplus budgetary funds to be used to top up planned defence spending commitments.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Slower Chile growth will bring electoral challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower Middle Class ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Chile's economic outlook. Significance On July 23, in an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF slashed its forecast for economic growth this year in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.4% to 0.6%, due principally to a sharp cut for Brazil. By contrast, the reduction for Chile, from 3.4% to 3.2%, was small but may err on the side of optimism. Impacts Dependence on copper remains a key challenge for Chile as regards both GDP growth and fiscal revenues. Slower growth particularly worries the new lower-middle class, eager for further gains in living standards. In the foreseeable future, Chile’s economic performance will likely be constrained by external conditions.

Belarus economic outlook dampened by external factors

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
External Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook

Headline BELARUS: Economic outlook dampened by external factors

Mexico's auto industry enjoys strong momentum

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The Other ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Edge ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Negative Shock

Significance Further investments are to follow. Ford is expected to announce on April 17 that it will invest 2.5 billion dollars to build engines and transmissions, with about half the amount invested in northern Chihuahua, the other half in Guanajuato. Impacts Booming auto production and exports should partly compensate for the negative shock from falling oil prices. Recent economic reforms should also enhance competitiveness, notably as natural gas and electricity prices fall towards world levels. Labour costs have not risen significantly in recent years, but greater wage demands by automotive unions cannot be discarded. Recent peso depreciation should add at least a short-term boost to Mexico's competitive edge in dollars.

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