US shutdown deal by February 15 is possible

Significance President Donald Trump wants to use DHS money to build a wall on the US-Mexico border to improve security and tackle crime. Yet Democrats say a wall is ineffective and ‘immoral’, partly as they disagree with Trump that there is any border crime or security crisis or emergency. This disagreement caused the longest federal government shutdown in history (35 days), which ended when Trump signed a Continuing Resolution to fund the government to midnight on February 15-16. Impacts Federal workers (but not contractors) will be fully reimbursed, benefitting consumption, and social spending will resume. Recently re-elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership acumen will be further boosted among House Democrats. Trump will likely give his State of the Union Address to Congress on February 5, where he can bolster his political capital.

Subject Cuba tourism challenges. Significance The US State Department in March reduced tourist visas for Cuban nationals, in a further sign of cooling bilateral relations. Under US President Donald Trump, several confidence-building bilateral measures introduced under former President Barack Obama have been rolled back, with limits on tourist visits and investment in Cuba by US firms reinstated. This is set to have a major impact on the tourism industry, one of the main drivers of Cuba’s economic growth and a key sector for investment by US companies. Impacts The Venezuela crisis will exacerbate Cuba-US tensions, with Washington blaming Havana for supporting Caracas. The government will prioritise tourism investment over social spending, potentially reducing incomes for Cubans. Conversely, tighter US rules may trigger a brief surge in US tourism to Cuba, for fear that the window of opportunity to visit is closing.


Significance Trump declared the emergency to access funding to build his campaign-pledged US-Mexico border security barrier. Impacts Trump’s base will welcome his continuing commitment to building the US-Mexico border wall. Democrats might need to offer Trump more wall-building money to avoid the risk that the courts side with him. Greater use of emergencies would destabilise policymaking; private firms would face higher risks supplying the government. Trump wants to work with Democrats on major immigration reform; success is possible but pre-2020, time and goodwill are limited.


Significance Democrats and Republicans have not yet agreed a way out of the impasse over building a US-Mexico border wall that caused the shutdown. President Donald Trump has suggested using presidential emergency powers to build the wall. Impacts If wall-building money came from funds for natural-disaster-hit California or Puerto Rico, Republican support could suffer. Moves to ensure furloughed federal workers get back-pay on government’s re-opening will give Republicans some political cover. Democratic legislative moves to limit presidential emergency powers could gain some Republican votes. Trump would veto any bill curtailing his powers, but he is unlikely to make widespread use of emergency powers. A fight over emergency powers would likely go to the Supreme Court; it might rule for Trump.


Subject Regional migration issues. Significance Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on October 3 said US President Donald Trump “looks favourably” on his plans to stem northward migration by promoting economic development in Central America. The remarks followed a call between the leaders that Trump described as “great”, with the US president adding that “we will work well together”. Whether such goodwill will last is doubtful, particularly regarding the issue of migration, on which the leaders have thus far taken diametrically opposed stances. Impacts Increased migration from Nicaragua and Venezuela could test stability in Costa Rica and Panama. Global warming will hit Central America hard, with droughts and flooding affecting food security, fuelling migration. Toughened security on the US-Mexico border will make people smuggling highly profitable for crime cartels.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 831-856
Author(s):  
Damian J. Rivers ◽  
Andrew S. Ross

Abstract The construction of a wall along the US/Mexico border was one of the main political platforms upon which the 2016 US presidential election campaign was fought. Ahead of the upcoming 2020 US presidential election, and with the border wall still not yet built or funded, this article uses the authorisation component of Van Leeuwen’s (2007) framework for the discourse of legitimation to show how President Donald J. Trump has sought legitimacy for the construction of the border wall. Data is taken from Trump’s @realDonaldTrump Twitter postings between October 18th, 2018 and February 3rd, 2019, a period inclusive of the longest federal government shutdown in US history. We show how Trump’s Twitter language is frequently accompanied by evidence-less attacks on sources of rival opinion or information, while the president tends to reaffirm himself as the exclusive source of credible and truthful information.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Cruz-Milan

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate specific marketing mix activities and influencing factors in hotels coping with falling room demand derived from drug cartel-related risk and insecurity.Design/methodology/approachA case study research was carried out using semistructured interviews with key informants (hotel managers) in two neighboring destinations at the US–Mexico border, an area where criminal organizations' drug trafficking-related violence has impacted the hospitality industry.FindingsThe research identifies factors that are internal (market segment diversification, type of ownership, magnitude of investments) and external (tourism promotion organizations, media coverage, tourist flow volume) to the firms as they affect their marketing mix implementation.Research limitations/implicationsThe research developed a framework to better understand the use of marketing mix practices and influencing factors in criminal insecurity contexts, which could be further studied in other risk and conflict scenarios.Practical implicationsThe pricing and communication tactics are employed more intensively, while product-service and distribution channel actions are used to a lesser extent. Greater emphasis should be placed on product-service, distribution and market segment diversification.Social implicationsConsidering the positive impacts that tourism and hospitality businesses have on local communities, it is recommended that the hotel sector works together with government and industry associations to improve the safety and security at tourism destinations.Originality/valueThe research extends the extant knowledge in hospitality crisis management by investigating the full marketing mix tactics in hotels at destinations stricken by cartel-related organized crime, an understudied context in the literature.


Think ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (52) ◽  
pp. 35-46
Author(s):  
Ben Saunders

Donald Trump promised to build a wall along the US–Mexico border and to make Mexico pay for it, but this seems to violate the principle of ‘no taxation without representation’ on which the United States was founded. Some democratic theorists propose even more radical principles of inclusion, such as that all those affected by or subject to a decision should have a say in it. But even a more moderate principle, requiring that those who pay must be represented, is sufficient to show that Trump's proposed border wall lacks democratic legitimacy.


2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara E. Grineski

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate children's vulnerability to asthma and its relationship with marginalized locations. More specifically, the effects of zip code level social predictors on children's asthma and their conditionality on location in the Texas‐Mexico border region are explored. The border region is perhaps the most marginalized in the USA.Design/methodology/approachData for analysis comes from the State of Texas and the US Bureau of the Census. Negative binomial regression models are used to predict asthma hospitalizations using a set of social predictors. Then, interaction effects are used to test if social predictors are conditional on border location.FindingsWithin the state of Texas, location in a metropolitan area, location along the US‐Mexico border, percent Hispanic, percent African American and percent Native American are positive and significant predictors of asthma hospitalizations; social class is negative and significant. The effects of proportion of Hispanics who were foreign born, median year of home construction, and percent of homes with inadequate heating are conditional on a zip code's location relative to the US‐Mexico border, with the slopes being steeper in border locations. Findings in general suggest that locational and social factors intersect in marginalized places (i.e. border regions of Texas) to create vulnerability to asthma hospitalizations.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is conducted solely in the USA.Originality/valueAs sociologists continue to consider space as a factor in health inequalities, this paper demonstrates the utility of considering space as operating at more than one scale.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 880-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Jill Fleuriet ◽  
Mari Castellano

In this article, we trace shifting representations of a US-Mexico border region in national mainstream news media during the rise of Donald Trump. We argue that the border is an American concept-metaphor that circulates and reshapes in media in response to political actors. We compare articles published in 2015, 2016, and 2017 about the Texas borderlands where the majority of Central American asylum seekers arrived. Crucial to Trump’s success, the narrow, racialized rendering of the border inadvertently provoked a wider array of representations in national news media but remained rooted in how Americans think about Others, sovereignty, and immigration. Our work contributes to scholarship that connects discursive regimes and statecraft with life in borderlands to lay bare underlying social tensions and potential violence. Analysis of concept-metaphors can open spaces for new articulations of key cultural domains and interrogate hidden assumptions about places, crucial during times of surging populism and nationalism.


Significance The surge in fighting that started on January 29 was the worst since early 2015, but seems to have died down for now. The causes are unclear, although it began a day after the first phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump since the US president's inauguration. The geopolitics are complicated by local issues such as disputes over trade with the rebel territories. Impacts Unless Kyiv caves in, Russia's refusal to return control of the border to Ukraine will block implementation of the Minsk 2.0 agreement. If Kyiv introduces martial law in eastern regions, this is likely to be seen as the death of the Minsk peace process. The government will be discredited if it cannot stop or regulate trade with rebel areas, but this will not be enough to force an election.


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