Ukraine clashes highlight deadlocked peace process

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Russian President ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The surge in fighting that started on January 29 was the worst since early 2015, but seems to have died down for now. The causes are unclear, although it began a day after the first phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump since the US president's inauguration. The geopolitics are complicated by local issues such as disputes over trade with the rebel territories. Impacts Unless Kyiv caves in, Russia's refusal to return control of the border to Ukraine will block implementation of the Minsk 2.0 agreement. If Kyiv introduces martial law in eastern regions, this is likely to be seen as the death of the Minsk peace process. The government will be discredited if it cannot stop or regulate trade with rebel areas, but this will not be enough to force an election.

Worsening US relations weigh on Cuba tourism prospects

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Subject Cuba tourism challenges. Significance The US State Department in March reduced tourist visas for Cuban nationals, in a further sign of cooling bilateral relations. Under US President Donald Trump, several confidence-building bilateral measures introduced under former President Barack Obama have been rolled back, with limits on tourist visits and investment in Cuba by US firms reinstated. This is set to have a major impact on the tourism industry, one of the main drivers of Cuba’s economic growth and a key sector for investment by US companies. Impacts The Venezuela crisis will exacerbate Cuba-US tensions, with Washington blaming Havana for supporting Caracas. The government will prioritise tourism investment over social spending, potentially reducing incomes for Cubans. Conversely, tighter US rules may trigger a brief surge in US tourism to Cuba, for fear that the window of opportunity to visit is closing.

Realities may constrain Russia's naval strategy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Naval Power ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
The Us ◽  
German Newspaper ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russian Naval doctrine Significance The Russian navy's next-generation reconnaissance ships, the Admiral Yury Ivanov-class, are capable of locating gaps in the US Aegis sea-based missile defence system, German newspaper Bild reported on August 6. The first ship was delivered to the fleet on July 26, Russia's Navy Day, at a ceremony attended by President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees Russia's military-industrial sector. On the same day the government also released a revised Maritime Doctrine updating the original 2001 text, (revised slightly in 2011). The government is now developing new maritime legislation on the basis of the doctrine. Impacts The new doctrine more explicitly describes NATO as a threat to Russia than previous published military doctrines. Russia's military has reversed its planned East Asia pivot to reinforce its western and northern fronts with NATO. Russia will remain primarily a regional naval power for at least the next decade.

Martial law call could threaten Philippines’ Duterte

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Energy Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance He has now introduced martial law to Mindanao and confirmed yesterday that habeas corpus had also been suspended on the island. Impacts Internal security risks will likely delay or halt Mindanao investment pledges. This could hit Duterte’s development aims and dent his support in his Mindanao political heartland. The Philippines will seek Russian investment especially in tourism, energy, infrastructure and transport. Philippines-Russia trade will likely expand but this will be a long-term process, as will trade diversification. Retaliating against martial law, the New People's Army will conduct more attacks, underming the government-communist peace process.

Warmer China-Myanmar ties may reshape local politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
Corporate Social

Significance Wang is the first senior foreign official to visit Myanmar following the installation of the new government on March 30, dominated by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). The government faces an early test in easing relations with China that have been strained since 2011. Impacts Stronger ties with Naypyidaw will strengthen China's Asia-Pacific position, as the US presidency nears transition. The government will likely demand enhanced corporate social responsibility from Chinese and other extractives investors. The government will need Chinese support to advance Myanmar's peace process. However, the government will also need to assuage Myanmar military's concern about Beijing's influence.

Legitimising illiberalism is Trump legacy to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

Subject Trump enthusiasts in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Some of the most vocal and high-ranking supporters abroad of the Republican candidate for the US presidency, Donald Trump, are in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The first sitting head of state or government to endorse Trump's bid was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban; he has been joined by Czech President Milos Zeman. Given Trump's hints at waiving the US commitment to defending this strategically volatile region, this may mask a degree of cognitive dissonance. However, CEE leaders are pursuing domestic games and betting on the star of illiberalism rising, with good reason. Impacts The EU will face disunity and, potentially, disintegration, should it not alter its current 'single-speed' form. Russian President Vladimir Putin will get a freer hand; provocations against NATO and neighbouring states are likely to be ramped up. The appeal of the Western liberal order will dissipate and new, illiberal forms of development will proliferate in the world.

North Korea peace process may hit sanctions roadblock

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Us South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The Us ◽  
Un General Assembly

Significance It expands the peace process launched at the summit in April, including a military annexe with concrete measures to reduce border tensions. Kim also recommitted to denuclearisation, if in vague terms. Nonetheless, US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised the summit. Moon is to meet Trump in New York on September 25. Pompeo is seeking talks with North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, who will attend the UN General Assembly. Impacts If Kim offers more on denuclearisation, Moon will press for some relaxation of sanctions to facilitate economic cooperation. If not, Washington may try to rein Moon in; that would strain the US-South Korean alliance, which is probably one of Kim’s aims. Pyongyang has repudiated or failed to implement past agreements, and could again if Kim feels US pressure is excessive.

US shutdown deal by February 15 is possible

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
The Government ◽  
Us Mexico Border

Significance President Donald Trump wants to use DHS money to build a wall on the US-Mexico border to improve security and tackle crime. Yet Democrats say a wall is ineffective and ‘immoral’, partly as they disagree with Trump that there is any border crime or security crisis or emergency. This disagreement caused the longest federal government shutdown in history (35 days), which ended when Trump signed a Continuing Resolution to fund the government to midnight on February 15-16. Impacts Federal workers (but not contractors) will be fully reimbursed, benefitting consumption, and social spending will resume. Recently re-elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership acumen will be further boosted among House Democrats. Trump will likely give his State of the Union Address to Congress on February 5, where he can bolster his political capital.

THE FAILURE TO SIGN THE UKRAINE-EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2013)

2019 ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
V. I. Denysenko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Main Role ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Russian President ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

The failure to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in autumn 2013 has been investigated. The role of the Russian factor, which became decisive in the foreign policy reversal of the Yanukovych regime, has been revealed. The importance of Viktor Yanukovych’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 27, 2013, in the dramatic change of Ukraine’s international vector has been emphasized. On the basis of diplomats’ memoirs, the assumption about intimidation of the Ukrainian President by the Russian side has been substantiated. The timeline of the preparation of the 2013 Vilnius Summit, the position of EU structures and the attempts of the fourth President of Ukraine to win time to trade with the Russians have been reproduced. The thesis about the Donetsk clan’s attempts to prepare public opinion for a 180 degree turn in late October - early November 2013 has been presented. For this purpose, demonstration meetings were organized with representatives of Ukrainian business and trade unions, who called for revision of plans for European integration on their own initiative. The main role in manipulating public opinion rested on the government of Mykola Azarov and the Verkhovna Rada, which had a majority coalition led by the Party of Regions. Instead, Viktor Yanukovych continued his European integration rhetoric and reiterated to Western partners his own willingness to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. On November 21, the real position of the ruling elite was made available to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. According to it, the process of preparation for the signing of the Association Agreement was suspended, the proposal was made for the trilateral Ukraine-EU-Russia negotiations, and the ministries were tasked with developing measures to maintain economic ties with the CIS countries. The decision was rejected by European partners and led to Yanukovych’s attempts to find other ways to thwart the signing of the Agreement. It has been proved that this role was played by Yanukovych’s requirements for financial assistance from the EU amounting to about 160 billion euros, which aimed to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement. Key words: Viktor Yanukovych, association of Ukraine with the EU, эYulia Tymoshenko, European integration, Pat Cox, Alexander Kwasniewski, Vladimir Putin.

Principal operators' farm risk attitudes in hot and cold climates

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Climate ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.

US-Russian talks offer uncertain path to de-escalation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Function ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The December 7 virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin was an attempt to reduce the risk of imminent conflict. The results, including an agreement to discuss European security, appear to have had some success, but have not led to de-escalation: Moscow shows no sign of pulling back troops massed around Ukraine. Impacts The war risk is not top of the news agenda in Ukraine, and the government seems inclined to downplay it. Closer US-NATO alignment will ease European fears but complicate some decisions. After engagement further afield, NATO will revert to its core function of assuring security in Europe.

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