Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022. Significance After a first year in office dominated by the situation at home, the Biden administration aims to deliver a more developed and focused foreign policy agenda in 2022. Many foreign policy goals will remain largely unchanged. While there will be greater efforts to strengthen ties with allies through mechanisms such as the Quad, the emphasis on issues other than those involving China may be increasingly affected by domestic politics.

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2020. Significance From January, the November elections will increasingly influence US foreign policy. While foreign policy is only one of many factors that can influence US voting behaviour, and rarely the leading one, President Donald Trump's administration will try to leverage it for political wins and votes. Yet if Trump feels his re-election effort is faltering, he may pull back from international engagement to focus on domestic politics.


Author(s):  
B. Bahriev

The article deals with the features of public diplomacy resource’ application in US foreign policy in Central Asia. The author claims that American public diplomacy which has been actively working in the region since the collapse of the USSR appears to be an important instrument of achievement of not only regional, but also global objectives of the USA. Despite a certain de-emphasis on the Central Asian direction in the American foreign policy at the present stage, the rising Russian public diplomacy activity and increasing Chinese influence in the region forces Americans to look for public diplomacy response in order to secure their positions in this important, from geopolitical viewpoint and energy resource perspective, region. The aforementioned tendencies shape a competitive regional environment for implementation of public diplomacy.


Author(s):  
Jude Woodward

This chapter reviews US-China-Russia relations in the post-war period, and considers how recent developments affect prospects for the US ‘pivot’. It explains why those driving US foreign policy towards China see the confrontation with Russia in Ukraine as a dangerous and diversionary adventure, leading to Sino-Russian convergence, distracting US attention from East Asia and undermining confidence among the US’s Asian allies of its commitment to the region. It is argued that if the US is to maintain primacy in the 21st century, it must subordinate other foreign policy goals to the paramount objective of containing China’s rise. The US’s failure to do this, instead pitting itself against both Putin in the West and China in the East, means it has driven Russia and China together, quite possibly sacrificing its vital need to contain China for a lesser goal of uncertain outcome in Ukraine.


Author(s):  
Michael Cox ◽  
Doug Stokes

This work examines how domestic politics and culture shape US foreign policy, with particular emphasis on the role of institutions and processes. It considers the ways in which pressure groups and elites determine influence what the United States does abroad, the importance of regional shifts and media and their impact on the making of US foreign policy, and US relations with Europe, the Middle East, Russia, the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Africa. The text also discusses key issues relevant to American foreign policy, such as global terrorism, the global environment, gender, and religion. It argues that whoever resides in the White House will continue to give the military a central role in the conduct of US foreign policy, and that whoever ‘runs’ American foreign policy will still have to deal with the same challenges both at home and abroad.


Subject Brazilian foreign policy under Aloysio Nunes. Significance Senator Aloysio Nunes, who took office as foreign minister on March 7, is an experienced politician from the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). He led the bloc supporting the government of President Michel Temer in the Senate, where he was also since 2015 head of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and National Defence. Nunes replaces Jose Serra at the foreign ministry and will seek overall continuity of Serra's agenda focused on the pursuit of trade opening and border security. Impacts Brazil lacks a clear strategy for its crucial relationship with China. Border security, a key issue for Serra, will remain important for Nunes. Domestic politics may divert Nunes’s attention as the 2018 elections approach.


Subject The June 7 elections' consequences for Turkish foreign policy. Significance The elections are the first setback since 2002 for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has dominated and in many ways transformed Turkish foreign policy. The AKP's unquestioned prowess in domestic politics had rendered foreign policy almost a non-issue, with courses of action being determined by the party alone, even when the opposition voiced criticism. The elections have undermined AKP's grip on power and will lead to a weaker coalition, minority government or period of acute political uncertainty, if not instability, defined by possible early elections by late-2015. Impacts Turkey will adopt a more 'toned-down' discourse and policy on such divisive issues domestically as the Syrian civil war. Major policy shifts in long-term trends, including Turkey's EU, US and Russian relationships, are unlikely. Erdogan will probably adopt a 'softer' discourse with the West, moderating his former confrontational attitude. Potential for tensions exist with the increasing political clout and territorial reach of the Syrian Kurdish militia.


Significance Pashinyan promises radical changes at home but continuity in foreign policy after his alliance won a landslide victory in a December 9 parliamentary election that legitimised the revolutionary transition of power he has led this year. Before the street protests that brought Pashinyan to power in May, the Republican Party's ruling position seemed unassailable. Now it has failed to win enough votes to be awarded seats in parliament. Impacts The peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections is a substantial positive step and may set a positive precedent. Pashinyan's alliance has five years of parliamentary dominance to pursue reforms. Moscow and Yerevan will eye one another nervously for months or years, watching for signs of policy change.


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