India’s sexual violence will cost ruling party support

Subject Sexial violence in India. Significance At a recent parliamentary debate over a no-confidence motion against the government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) began its defence by focusing on its achievements in protecting women. India has seen a recent surge in reports of high-profile, violent sexual crimes. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election due in early 2019. Impacts Modi will face protests over India’s treatment of women especially during his trips to Western countries. Civil society organisations will intensify calls for better training and scrutiny of police. Human rights groups will urge India to reject the death penalty, encouraging judicial reform instead.

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.


Significance The APC is struggling to present a united front against the government. President Julius Maada Bio’s administration is seeking to make headway on corruption cases, mining law revisions and economic policy to shore up its support ahead of elections in early 2023. Impacts The ACC’s inability to secure high-profile convictions may bolster former President Ernest Bai Koroma's faction within the APC. The tourism and hospitality sector will be boosted by the removal of state of emergency restrictions. Higher commodity prices will facilitate government efforts to increase mining output.


Subject Friction within Ecuador’s ruling party Significance Tensions within Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, came to the surface on August 3 when President Lenin Moreno stripped Vice President Jorge Glas of his official functions within government. The move came after Glas wrote a public letter criticising Moreno, and fresh evidence emerged of corruption within the government of former President Rafael Correa. The conflict within the government reflects wider divisions within Alianza Pais as the party adjusts to a change in leadership and the Moreno administration grapples with the negative legacies of the previous administration. Impacts High profile infighting will leave the government open to accusations of neglecting its responsibilities to the people. Correa will exploit divisions within the government and party to increase his chances of returning to power. Moreno faces the deeper challenge of tackling a political culture that views government posts as a platform for personal wealth creation.


Subject Tensions between the co-chairs of Nepal's ruling party. Significance In recent weeks, tensions have grown between the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s co-chairs, Prime Minister KP Oli and PK Dahal (‘Prachanda’). Ahead of the NCP’s formation early last year through a merger of the two leaders’ erstwhile parties, Oli and Prachanda reportedly agreed to lead the government for equal periods. As Oli comes under pressure to ensure he complies, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who wields strong influence within Oli’s faction in the NCP, has spoken out against the incumbent. Impacts Oli and Prachanda will in the short term probably put on a show of solidarity, aiming to dispel any notion of governing instability. The main opposition Nepali Congress may try to form closer links with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, hoping for its tacit support. If Prachanda takes power, he may face calls to take a harder line on former comrades within the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Pace

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that cyberattacks are having on organizations and the growing need these create for H.R. departments to collaborate more closely with IT departments. Design/methodology/approach Current thinking regarding managing cybersecurity suggests that it should be managed holistically, i.e. by the human resources (HR) department and information technology (IT) department working together more closely. This sees the IT department providing the IT security tools and the HR department providing the appropriate processes and procedures that need to be followed, as well as creating a necessarily more “vigilant” culture. Findings Several practical steps are outlined that will help HR departments protect themselves against a data breach. Originality/value Cyberthreats are amongst the top threats to UK business, according to the government. Managing cybersecurity has long been left almost solely to the technology experts. The continuing number of high-profile data breaches suggests that cybersecurity tools alone will not stop information leaking from companies. There is an important role for HR teams in encouraging and enforcing a more proactive, vigilant culture amongst the workforce and working more closely with IT to improve security practices.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Significance The bill received cross-party support in parliament, illustrating its independence from the executive, which opposes the bill. The relationship between the executive and legislative branches is complex, with constituents and the president vying for influence among lawmakers. Impacts MPs will oscillate between independence and compliance over the next twelve months. By vetoing the banking legislation, Kenyatta risks opposing a popular measure with elections looming. Banks will compromise with the government and central bank on self-regulation to avoid legislated rates.


Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.


Subject Pre-election politics in Ecuador. Significance Deteriorating economic conditions, declining public spending and falling support for the government have provided opposition forces with a favourable climate to make gains in advance of next year's general elections. However, with little over eight months before voters are scheduled to go to the polls, the opposition is fragmented and the main challengers are uncertain. The political landscape is further complicated by uncertainty over who will stand for the ruling party. While President Rafael Correa has repeatedly stated that he will not compete, he may yet seek election for a fourth successive term. Impacts Constitutional reform, media freedom, security and tax reductions will be the focus of electoral campaigns from the right and centre. Preventing large-scale mining, environmentalism, creating a plurinational state and wealth redistribution will be central to the left. The full list of parties and candidates authorised to compete in the elections will not be known until the year-end.


Subject The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker. Significance On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations. Impacts Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely. El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term. Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived. While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.


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