New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Significance The APC is struggling to present a united front against the government. President Julius Maada Bio’s administration is seeking to make headway on corruption cases, mining law revisions and economic policy to shore up its support ahead of elections in early 2023. Impacts The ACC’s inability to secure high-profile convictions may bolster former President Ernest Bai Koroma's faction within the APC. The tourism and hospitality sector will be boosted by the removal of state of emergency restrictions. Higher commodity prices will facilitate government efforts to increase mining output.


Subject Presidential hopefuls. Significance On October 1, Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, nominated former Vice President Lenin Moreno as its presidential candidate in the elections of February 19. The news has boosted the government, raising hopes of a victory in the first round of the elections. However, the possibility a candidate from the right winning in a second round cannot be discounted. Impacts Managing the economic slowdown will be one of the main challenges for the government in the lead-up to the election. Securing external financing and maintaining relatively high levels of public spending will remain a priority. Opposition candidates will try to make gains from the economic slowdown, the rise in public debt and corruption allegations.


Subject Friction within Ecuador’s ruling party Significance Tensions within Ecuador's ruling party, Alianza Pais, came to the surface on August 3 when President Lenin Moreno stripped Vice President Jorge Glas of his official functions within government. The move came after Glas wrote a public letter criticising Moreno, and fresh evidence emerged of corruption within the government of former President Rafael Correa. The conflict within the government reflects wider divisions within Alianza Pais as the party adjusts to a change in leadership and the Moreno administration grapples with the negative legacies of the previous administration. Impacts High profile infighting will leave the government open to accusations of neglecting its responsibilities to the people. Correa will exploit divisions within the government and party to increase his chances of returning to power. Moreno faces the deeper challenge of tackling a political culture that views government posts as a platform for personal wealth creation.


Significance While Correa's chosen successor, President Lenin Moreno, won April's presidential election, he did so narrowly, and his efforts since taking office to reach out to other parties, engaging them in a 'national dialogue', have been met with derision by both Correa himself and substantial sections of the ruling party, Alianza Pais. Moreno's handling of corruption scandals linked to his predecessor's administrations has exacerbated tensions within the government, with demands to hold public officials to account causing consternation in some quarters and placing the spotlight on Vice-President Jorge Glas, who has been implicated. Impacts Glas's continued vice presidency is likely to be politically damaging regardless of the success of impeachment procedings. While Correa is expected to spend most of his time overseas, he will continue to exert influence over the handling of the corruption cases. Evidence of widespread corruption taking place under Correa will damage his credibility and limit his chances of returning to power.


Subject Cambodia's ruling party's hold on power. Significance Cambodia is scheduled to hold elections for the 125-seat National Assembly on July 29. The poll comes amid rising international scrutiny of the government, whose moves have attracted criticism for damaging Cambodia’s democracy. Impacts The international community would begrudgingly accept continued CPP governance, but further targeted sanctions are likely. If the CPP lost the election, and accepted the result, it would probably push for a role in a coalition government. Any legal amendments limiting foreign involvement in Cambodian internal affairs could be a risk to foreign investment.


Significance A lagging economy, declining global commodity prices and the crippling corruption crisis affecting state-owned oil giant Petrobras (estimated at 17 billion dollars in losses) have compelled the government to travel the world seeking investments. This combination has transformed what Brasilia had expected to be a revenue windfall into a shortfall, persuading the formerly inward-looking government to pursue external investment sources, including the US private sector and other BRICS countries. Impacts Brazil's current woes may represent an opportunity for foreign investors. However, the Petrobras scandal will continue to undermine investor sentiment. Current private forecasts point to recession both this year and next. Corruption claims could yet put the government at risk.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruchi Mittal ◽  
Wasim Ahmed ◽  
Amit Mittal ◽  
Ishan Aggarwal

Purpose Using data from Twitter, the purpose of this paper is to assess the coping behaviour and reactions of social media users in response to the initial days of the COVID-19-related lockdown in different parts of the world. Design/methodology/approach This study follows the quasi-inductive approach which allows the development of pre-categories from other theories before the sampling and coding processes begin, for use in those processes. Data was extracted using relevant keywords from Twitter, and a sample was drawn from the Twitter data set to ensure the data is more manageable from a qualitative research standpoint and that meaningful interpretations can be drawn from the data analysis results. The data analysis is discussed in two parts: extraction and classification of data from Twitter using automated sentiment analysis; and qualitative data analysis of a smaller Twitter data sample. Findings This study found that during the lockdown the majority of users on Twitter shared positive opinions towards the lockdown. The results also found that people are keeping themselves engaged and entertained. Governments around the world have also gained support from Twitter users. This is despite the hardships being faced by citizens. The authors also found a number of users expressing negative sentiments. The results also found that several users on Twitter were fence-sitters and their opinions and emotions could swing either way depending on how the pandemic progresses and what action is taken by governments around the world. Research limitations/implications The authors add to the body of literature that has examined Twitter discussions around H1N1 using in-depth qualitative methods and conspiracy theories around COVID-19. In the long run, the government can help citizens develop routines that help the community adapt to a new dangerous environment – this has very effectively been shown in the context of wildfires in the context of disaster management. In the context of this research, the dominance of the positive themes within tweets is promising for policymakers and governments around the world. However, sentiments may wish to be monitored going forward as large-spikes in negative sentiment may highlight lockdown-fatigue. Social implications The psychology of humans during a pandemic can have a profound impact on how COVID-19 shapes up, and this shall also include how people behave with other people and with the larger environment. Lockdowns are the opposite of what societies strive to achieve, i.e. socializing. Originality/value This study is based on original Twitter data collected during the initial days of the COVID-19-induced lockdown. The topic of “lockdowns” and the “COVID-19” pandemic have not been studied together thus far. This study is highly topical.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 594-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeep Goel

Purpose This paper aims to focus on the concept of abolition of black money and the demonetization movement started in India for cleaning black money and its impact on corporate world and Indian economy. It discusses the corporate governance effect of the demonetization scheme and various policy measures taken by the government to unearth and curb the black money in the country. It also states the challenges in its process of implementation and implications for future. Design/methodology/approach It appraises and reviews the concept of demonetization and its process in India since its implementation on November 8, 2016. Findings The biggest positive effects of this move were eradication of stocked and staked up money, cleansing of the financial system and improving governance in India. But its implementation had mix outcomes with its own challenges for future improvement. Practical implications The lessons drawn from the experience are expected to pave way for the countries at large. Originality/value It is an original paper on demonetization in India, and it is hoped that the lessons learnt thereof will pave the way for the world at large.


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