More combative US moves raise risk of a ‘trade war’

Significance Sharp rhetoric from President Donald Trump and his officials is raising the prospect of a trade war. Following a year of false alarms and intra-administration conflict, signs point to escalation of the increasingly protectionist US agenda, particularly towards China. Impacts The seventh NAFTA round will begin on February 26 -- services market access and the dispute settlement mechanism are the trickiest topics. Even if there is a NAFTA deal, it could struggle to pass Congress. China is ready to retaliate, both against prospective steel and aluminium tariffs and any punishment for intellectual property theft.

Significance Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly. Impacts Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist. A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement. Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico. Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Riyad Febrian Anwar

Whether we are ready or not, people in Indonesia and the rest of Southeastern Asia will soon welcome the ASEAN Economic Communities (AEC) by the end 2015. Therefore, there are needs to evaluate the progress in ASEAN rules and strategies thus far. By employing normative study, this paper finds and further recommends the following: Firstly, ASEAN almost reached its peak points in eliminating the tariff barriers, yet to come are the elimination on ‘sensitive’ and ‘highly sensitive list’ tariffs on imported agriculture commodities; Secondly, Non-Tariff Barriers (NTB) remain to be one of the major problems in intra-ASEAN trades; Thirdly, Member States reluctances to invoke the ASEAN dispute settlement mechanism for their trading disputes may potentially hinder the effectiveness of AEC in the future; and Finally, the protection of intellectual property remains low in the region as the ASEAN Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Action plan 2011-2015 is still deemed ineffective to reforms the IP regulations within Member States.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Riyad Febrian Anwar

Whether we are ready or not, people in Indonesia and the rest of Southeastern Asia will soon welcome the ASEAN Economic Communities (AEC) by the end 2015. Therefore, there are needs to evaluate the progress in ASEAN rules and strategies thus far. By employing normative study, this paper finds and further recommends the following: Firstly, ASEAN almost reached its peak points in eliminating the tariff barriers, yet to come are the elimination on ‘sensitive’ and ‘highly sensitive list’ tariffs on imported agriculture commodities; Secondly, Non-Tariff Barriers (NTB) remain to be one of the major problems in intra-ASEAN trades; Thirdly, Member States reluctances to invoke the ASEAN dispute settlement mechanism for their trading disputes may potentially hinder the effectiveness of AEC in the future; and Finally, the protection of intellectual property remains low in the region as the ASEAN Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Action plan 2011-2015 is still deemed ineffective to reforms the IP regulations within Member States.


2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-135
Author(s):  
Tolulope Anthony Adekola

Purpose The paper is prompted by the US–China trade war and its implications for the sustenance of the multilateral trading system. The two rivals resorted to “self-help” without recourse to the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement system, flouting the WTO as an adjudicator in trade disputes. This paper aims to analyze the drawbacks in the settlement system and examines the urgent need for a retroactive remedy. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts desk-review and jurisprudential analysis of the relevant rulings of the WTO dispute settlement body. Using desk-review, primary sources such as the relevant domestic legislations invoked by the USA and China to trigger the trade war were discussed and critically analyzed. Findings This paper finds that the unilateral and protectionist actions that characterize the trade war can be linked to the loss of confidence in WTO remedies to redress members’ retroactive economic losses. This finding is useful in arguing for the incorporation of a retrospective monetary remedy to forestall the reoccurrence of a similar trade war and save the WTO from being dysfunctional. Originality/value Although, whether there should be retroactive remedies in the settlement system has been long debated, this paper makes a significant contribution by highlighting why the drawbacks in the settlement system have become so prominent in the context of this trade war. This paper strengthens the urgent need for WTO dispute settlement reform to prevent a reoccurrence of another global distortion of trade.


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