Turkey’s tourism revival will be gradual at best

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
The Government ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

Subject Risks to Turkey as a low-cost tourist destination. Significance The 2017 recovery in tourism was largely in low-spending visitors from Russia and the Middle East; arrivals from core European markets were still well down. With regional conflicts continuing and more international spats looming, the government may not see the sector as a priority, making even this limited revival short-lived. Impacts Intensified spats with the United States and possible new visa restrictions will increase negative impressions of Turkey. Urban bombings and terror attacks would raise serious questions over security and put a brake on tourism arrivals. Regional conflicts in Syria and Iraq could spill over the border, reducing Turkey’s attractiveness to tourists. Turkey’s appeal to lower-spending Europeans may be offset by the instabilities that caused the lira to deteriorate.

China will be the key global automotive market

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Automotive Market ◽  
Car Market ◽  
New Models ◽  
European Markets

Significance The passenger car market will expand by 2.7% in 2016, according to private sector estimates, with growth evenly spread between the BRICS, Europe and the United States. The industry will focus on three transformations: the push into emerging markets (EMs), exploiting the potential of data and connectivity and managing the regulatory drive towards cleaner fuels. Impacts Diesel will remain a viable fuel in European markets. However, tougher testing and lower filtering margins will strengthen the case for further hybridisation of new models. The limited response from European regulators risks diminishing the incentives for domestic manufacturers to make changes early. Volume manufacturers are squeezed between low-cost manufacturers and the premium brands when it comes to connectivity.

Energy reform will hit investor confidence in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Trade Agreements ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Reform

Significance The government will appeal the rulings, which follow action by renewables firms. With constitutional battles over energy investments already unfolding, the future of Mexico’s energy framework has been thrown into turmoil. Impacts Increasing energy prices will probably push inflation above Banxico’s upper target limit of 4%. AMLO’s apparent disregard for international trade agreements will strain relations with the United States. AMLO’s pro-austerity fiscal stance could take a toll on his popularity.

Turkish-US talks may limit Armenian genocide damage

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Armenian Genocide ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Erdogan adopted a relatively conciliatory tone and stopped short of declaring retaliatory measures, for fear of the economic consequences in particular, despite the fact that most Turks see Biden’s move as an insult and an attack on Turkish dignity. Impacts Ankara’s options for retaliation are limited but could include reduced military coordination with Washington in Syria and Iraq. Turkey could ask non-NATO US forces to leave, but closing the Incirlik air and Kurecik radar bases would hurt relations with NATO. The issue could be used internally to rally Turkish nationalist anger with the United States in support of the government.

UK Syria airstrikes strategy carries risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Security ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Jeremy Corbyn

Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

Mexico’s brain drain to continue unabated

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
National Council ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University

Subject Mexico's brain drain. Significance Recent studies suggest increasing numbers of skilled professionals are emigrating from Mexico. A report by the University of Zacatecas (UAZ) published in March shows more than 1.4 million Mexicans with postgraduate degrees left the country between 1990 and 2015 due to a lack of professional development opportunities. According the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT), the government agency responsible for policy in this area, 46% of skilled emigrants live in Europe, 30% in the United States, 12% in Latin America and 7% in Canada. Impacts Emigration of skilled workers will be a fiscal burden as it annuls the benefits of investing in human resources. Policies to attract foreign talent could mitigate the problem, but there is no evidence that this is being considered. A contentious election outcome could trigger instability, further fuelling the outward flow of highly skilled Mexicans.

Election reinforces the regime’s control of Algeria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Political ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Liberation Front ◽  
The Government

Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.

Infrastructure investments face obstacles in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Government ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Subject Public-private partnerships. Significance Amid attempts to secure new investment from Canada and the United States, the government is wrestling with political difficulties surrounding the future of public-private partnerships (PPPs). These have been magnified in recent months by the bad publicity arising from the Odebrecht bribery scandals. Establishing a politically acceptable balance between attracting investors and ensuring the transparency of public works contracts is proving increasingly important. Impacts The problem of corruption in sub-national government will cloud the operations of PPPs. There will be a need for stronger and more independent regulation of PPP projects. The localised reach of the Works for Taxes programme will limit its scope in dealing with wider objectives.

Iraq sees rising risk of a US-Iran clash in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Warning Services

Significance These have caused the United States to begin the process of shuttering its Baghdad embassy -- while signalling that it could reverse the process if the government moves more aggressively against pro-Iran groups within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that are blamed for the strikes. Impacts Groups will step up attacks designed to lever the US-led coalition out of Iraq, while seeking to mask their identity. The United States will have greater latitude for military action to weaken Tehran in November or December, if it closes the embassy. Japanese, Saudi, Emirati and some European embassies relying on US evacuation and warning services might also be forced out. Washington might opt instead to downsize the embassy, which cannot operate normally due to COVID-19 and security threats. Even if the US embassy closed, some coalition military sites and the US consulate in the Kurdistan region would remain open.

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