China will be the key global automotive market

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Automotive Market ◽  
Car Market ◽  
New Models ◽  
European Markets

Significance The passenger car market will expand by 2.7% in 2016, according to private sector estimates, with growth evenly spread between the BRICS, Europe and the United States. The industry will focus on three transformations: the push into emerging markets (EMs), exploiting the potential of data and connectivity and managing the regulatory drive towards cleaner fuels. Impacts Diesel will remain a viable fuel in European markets. However, tougher testing and lower filtering margins will strengthen the case for further hybridisation of new models. The limited response from European regulators risks diminishing the incentives for domestic manufacturers to make changes early. Volume manufacturers are squeezed between low-cost manufacturers and the premium brands when it comes to connectivity.

Slump in Turkish automotive sector will last into 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Automotive Sector ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Automotive Market ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Turkish Lira

Subject The weak lira’s impact on the Turkish automotive sector. Significance A growing domestic automotive market gave Turkish carmakers some relief when European vehicle markets slumped in the wake of the euro-area crisis. Now, thanks to a combination of failed economic policies and tensions with the United States that caused a 70% fall in the Turkish lira, the domestic market has all but collapsed, while European markets are slowing even before the disruption promised by Brexit. Impacts The government’s post-attempted-coup purges have hurt the lira and may have affected consumer demand. Demand in the main export markets in Europe for Turkish-produced cars is stagnating and exports may continue to fall. Renewed US efforts to isolate Iran will affect Turkish vehicle exports to that market.

Turkey’s tourism revival will be gradual at best

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
The Government ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

Subject Risks to Turkey as a low-cost tourist destination. Significance The 2017 recovery in tourism was largely in low-spending visitors from Russia and the Middle East; arrivals from core European markets were still well down. With regional conflicts continuing and more international spats looming, the government may not see the sector as a priority, making even this limited revival short-lived. Impacts Intensified spats with the United States and possible new visa restrictions will increase negative impressions of Turkey. Urban bombings and terror attacks would raise serious questions over security and put a brake on tourism arrivals. Regional conflicts in Syria and Iraq could spill over the border, reducing Turkey’s attractiveness to tourists. Turkey’s appeal to lower-spending Europeans may be offset by the instabilities that caused the lira to deteriorate.

China will press on with financial reform and opening

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Reform ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type

Subject Financial reform and opening in China. Significance Despite trade disputes with the United States and risks in emerging markets, China's leaders are showing determination to open the country's financial sector further to foreign businesses. Impacts Local governments and banks will come under pressure from waves of corporate defaults, but wider panic is unlikely. Struggling enterprises will be less able to rely on debt to survive. The strong supervision of the financial sector seen in 2017 will persist as the authorities seek to reduce systemic risk. The precise timeline given by the central bank shows policymakers' confidence that risks are adequately contained.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

Top powers race for artificially intelligent weapons

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
Waking Up

Subject Innovation in artificial intelligence-enabled defence systems outside the United States. Significance Besides the United States, China and Russia seek a geostrategic advantage through artificial intelligence(AI)-enabled defence. European governments are also waking up to the potential of such systems, but their efforts are splintered. Impacts The feverish pace of development in China suggests its defence systems may be unreliable or unsafe initially. Western researchers will be more bound by ethical barriers than their Russian and Chinese counterparts. Private sector responses will balance commercial gain and reputational risk.

China’s role aids Egypt’s army more than the economy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Ability And Willingness

Significance China’s ability and willingness to build and finance mammoth initiatives of questionable national value has made it a convenient partner for President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi. Impacts Both sides will tout projects that reflect the personal visions of their leaders. Private-sector Egyptian companies will be crowded out of the market by military-led enterprises. Egypt’s main economic partners will remain GCC countries, Europe and the United States for the foreseeable future.

Impunity will incentivise cyberattacks globally

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Saudi Aramco

Significance The hacking of emails of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair has touched off national discussion in the United States on Russia’s involvement and -- along with other high-profile cyberattacks believed to have been carried out by states such as those on Sony in 2014 and Saudi Aramco in 2012 -- have shone a spotlight on the complexity of attribution in cyberspace. Impacts Companies will increasingly find themselves in the crossfire of disputes between states. Governments will need to not only ramp up their country’s defences but also work with the private sector to ensure their cyber readiness. Societies may experience a challenge to democratic processes as states use cyber instruments to influence foreign elections.

Tehran will flounder over COVID-19’s economic impact

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation

Significance Facing the region’s largest coronavirus outbreak, the authorities belatedly closed schools, banned all religious and social gatherings and asked people to stay indoors. However, since mid-April, they have loosened restrictions, reflecting the difficulties of the private sector as well as the government’s limited capacity to provide relief. Impacts The economic pressure from COVID-19 on top of sanctions may force Tehran to divert assets away from the conflict in Syria. Finance for operations in Iraq will be prioritised as a core Iranian interest as well as an arena to combat the United States. The central bank may be forced to print money to finance increased health spending and social security, risking extremely high inflation.

India-Russia ties will withstand external pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
Complicating Factors ◽  
India And China

Significance The countries have historically had strong ties. However, Delhi’s growing partnership with Washington and burgeoning Moscow-Beijing relations are complicating factors, given the rivalry between Russia and the United States, and between India and China. Impacts Russia’s burgeoning ties with India’s enemy, Pakistan, will not undermine the Moscow-Delhi relationship. India’s private sector will remain reluctant to invest in Russia, fearing US sanctions. Delhi will over the next five years initiate 2+2 dialogues with individual ASEAN and EU members.

Prospects for the global economy in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Significance Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021. Few emerging markets will be widely vaccinated by end-2021, restricting, if not negating, their recoveries.

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