Congo's economy affords limited political opening

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Liquidity Constraints ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
Bank Funding ◽  
Economic Risks

Significance Underneath Congo’s deepening political crisis there also lies an acute balance-of-payments crisis. Despite relative improvements in the price of key exports, currency depreciation and rampant inflation are driving liquidity constraints and exacerbating socio-economic risks. Impacts Rising prices and stagnant wages may prompt fresh economic protests or strikes. As growth slows, central bank funding could become a more important source of political patronage. Neighbours' sympathy for DRC's sovereignty claims will undercut international efforts to ensure a political transition.

Divisions plague Libya's financial institutions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.

Haiti’s political crisis weighs on economic growth

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance Widespread political turmoil has prevented elections to choose new representatives and senators, as well as the approval of a budget. Protests against poverty and corruption have paralysed Haiti over the last year. The country is facing a severe humanitarian crisis amid high levels of inflation, rapid currency depreciation and a contraction in GDP. The IMF put a 229-million-dollar loan on hold in June 2019 and has made its support conditional on solving the political crisis and adopting measures needed to stabilise the economy. Impacts Anti-government protests will linger as the opposition continues pressuring Moise to step down. Inflation is expected to pick up pace amid a weakening local currency and economic disruptions resulting from the political crisis. The public deficit will increase in the short term, hampered by a decline in revenue collection due to the economic downturn.

Political crisis to hinder Nicaragua economic recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Sustained Recovery

Significance However, the prospects of a sustained recovery are clouded by fiscal weakness, a precarious balance-of-payments position, a deteriorating business environment and the threat of international sanctions on the financial sector. The country's most vulnerable communities are yet to recover from the damage wrought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota. Impacts An accommodative monetary policy will be maintained in an effort to support economic recovery. Ortega’s control over the judiciary will heighten legal uncertainty and erode the ability of investors to enforce contracts. The prolonged depreciation of the Cordoba will increase servicing costs of public and private dollar-denominated debts. Refugee outflows will intensify after November’s elections, with knock-on effects for the rest of the region.

Kenya should manage its public debt

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation

Significance Boosting exports would stabilise Kenya's account and reduce the risk of currency depreciation, both important for Nairobi's ability to manage public debt. Kenya has increased borrowing in recent years in part to fund projects designed to grow the economy. Impacts Threats of al-Shabaab attacks will depress incoming tourism, a source of foreign currency. National elections in 2017 will limit the government's scope for austerity and delay improvements in the fiscal deficit. Increasing inflation will erode government revenues and encourage contractionary monetary policy decisions. Net outflows on the balance of payments and declining foreign reserves will restrict the central bank's ability to intervene in shocks.

Problems could derail Libya political transition push

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance With momentum stalled on negotiations to amend the 2015 political settlement for implementation, the UN has focused instead on preparing for new parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of 2018 as a solution to the political crisis in Libya. Impacts Despite UN plans, elections are unlikely to take place before 2019. Failure to recognise the importance of sequencing risks perpetuating Libya’s anarchic transition period. Sustained oil sector recovery will not entice foreign investment back without a unified government.

Proposed Mexican financial legislation sparks concerns

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Legal Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Potential Impact

Significance The move, however, has proven controversial, generating a backlash over its potential impact on commercial banks and the central bank (Banxico), which sees it as a threat to its autonomy. The proposals come amid an unusual surge in remittances flowing into the country. Impacts Any legal change that is seen as affecting Banxico’s autonomy would damage investor confidence significantly. AMLO may stop legislation changes if they cause a depreciation of the peso. Mexico’s economy looks set to become far more reliant on remittance income than it has been in past years.

Angola mounting debt burden raises future default risk

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
African Development Bank ◽  
Central Bank Autonomy ◽  
Domestic Banks

Significance The IMF's willingness to turn a blind eye may enable Angola to retain access to concessional finance over the next 18 months; however, Luanda needs a plan to address deferred principal payments and recapitalise a key escrow account in 2023. Impacts The IMF's latest funding review will unlock USD500mn from the World Bank and USD200mn from the African Development Bank. Persistent IMF pressure for greater central bank autonomy will help curb inflation, which recently reached 25%, pending new legislation. Domestic banks remain vulnerable to economic shocks amid a lengthy recession, persistent high inflation and continued currency depreciation.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Mexico central bank nomination risks stoking concerns

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Content Type

Headline MEXICO: Banxico nomination risks stoking concerns

Russia's central bank confident despite price rises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Content Type

Headline RUSSIA: Central bank confident despite price rises

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