Problems could derail Libya political transition push

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance With momentum stalled on negotiations to amend the 2015 political settlement for implementation, the UN has focused instead on preparing for new parliamentary and presidential elections before the end of 2018 as a solution to the political crisis in Libya. Impacts Despite UN plans, elections are unlikely to take place before 2019. Failure to recognise the importance of sequencing risks perpetuating Libya’s anarchic transition period. Sustained oil sector recovery will not entice foreign investment back without a unified government.

Tunisia Nidaa divisions will benefit Ennahda in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
Government Coalition

Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.

scholarly journals Belarus is Waiting for Changes

2021 ◽  
pp. 75-86
Author(s):  
S. Astakhova
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Political Settlement

The protest activity after the presidential elections in 2020 caused a large-scale internal political crisis in Belarus. Currently, preparation for a constitutional reform is at the center of the political agenda in the republic. This scenario of an internal political settlement should create conditions for the transfer of power. Western sanctions against the Belarusian leadership have intensified the integration process within the Union State.

South Sudan faces a bleak development outlook

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Development Outlook

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.

New Tanzania leader may face resistance to reform

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economic Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Face ◽  
Low Cost Carrier

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.

Bankruptcy law challenges the United Arab Emirates

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Bankruptcy Law ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis

Subject Legislation on insolvency in the United Arab Emirates. Significance The long-awaited federal bankruptcy law came into effect on December 29, three months after its publication. The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the need to adopt comprehensive insolvency legislation, after many debtors fled the country to avoid penal consequences -- including time in prison -- when their businesses crashed. However, despite low oil prices it was not until 2016 that steps to formalise the bankruptcy law were expedited, with the aim of promoting foreign investment and business development. Impacts Foreign direct investment in the non-oil sector will increase. Some financial institutions could be slow to take account of the new legislation. Other Gulf Arab countries may look to the UAE bankruptcy law as a model.

Unity deal reflects Western goals, not Libyan accord

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Congress

Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.

Divisions plague Libya's financial institutions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Congo's economy affords limited political opening

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Liquidity Constraints ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
Bank Funding ◽  
Economic Risks

Significance Underneath Congo’s deepening political crisis there also lies an acute balance-of-payments crisis. Despite relative improvements in the price of key exports, currency depreciation and rampant inflation are driving liquidity constraints and exacerbating socio-economic risks. Impacts Rising prices and stagnant wages may prompt fresh economic protests or strikes. As growth slows, central bank funding could become a more important source of political patronage. Neighbours' sympathy for DRC's sovereignty claims will undercut international efforts to ensure a political transition.

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