Venezuela's Maduro on the back foot as crisis mounts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Multilateral Institutions ◽  
Basic Goods ◽  
The Us ◽  
Regional Organisations ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Significance Pressure on Caracas has intensified over recent weeks, elevating expectations that President Nicolas Maduro will be forced to stand down well ahead of the December 2018 presidential elections. Regional organisations and multilateral institutions are manoeuvring to engineer regime change, or to contain the fall-out from an abrupt and destabilising political shift. This is a particularly perilous period for the Maduro government with 2 billion dollars in loan payments falling due in April as international reserves hit record lows and shortages of basic goods deepens. Impacts The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry will engage in intense regional diplomacy to preclude decisive OAS action. The US Congress will push for broader sanctions on Venezuelan officials in order to support OAS actions. Speculation will intensify that Venezuela will default. Venezuelan instability may increase risks in neighbouring Colombia.

The G7 is edging closer to a new round of SDRs

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Special Drawing Rights

Significance The COVID-19 crisis has exposed the disparity in fiscal and monetary firepower between developed and developing economies. Within the G7, support is growing for a new allocation of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) -- international reserves that can be swapped for hard currency -- now that the US leadership is better disposed to multilateral action. Impacts The US Congress must approve an SDR round over USD685bn; a smaller issue is likely as many Republicans oppose financing Iran and China. The G20’s moratorium on developing nations debt servicing payments is set to be extended beyond June, but vast payment gaps still remain. The rising US yield curve and dollar rally will pressure emerging market borrowers by raising their dollar-denominated debt repayments.

Puerto Rican shutdown would increase default fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Federal Intervention ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
General Obligation Bonds ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.

Trump may destabilise Korean Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
North And South ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.

Disagreement possible over pace of Myanmar-US policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
Generalized System ◽  
Generalized System Of Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
Policy Engagement

Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.

US Congress will leave Trump nuclear authority intact

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
North East ◽  
The Us ◽  
Carry Over

Significance The standoff with North Korea has led the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on the president’s authority to order a nuclear first strike. This is the first such formal examination of the executive branch’s nuclear prerogatives and procedures by Congress since 1976. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration is planning on upgrades to the US arsenal to boost Washington’s ability to wage a nuclear war and has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with North Korea in its public remarks. Impacts The probable US deployment of new tactical nuclear weapons will not carry over to delegating attack authority to commanders in a crisis. Chinese and Russian anti-access/area-denial systems may trigger more US reliance on nuclear deterrence in the Baltics and North-east Asia. Improved weapons technology convincing policymakers that first strikes are prudent pose greater risks than unbalanced political leadership.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

Added US sanctions on Syria may prove self-defeating

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
Economic Tools

Significance This comes as the US Congress is finalising a bill, the Caesar Act, that would substantially increase the sanctions pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As Washington’s military footprint in the Syrian theatre shrinks, it is reprioritising the use of economic tools. Impacts With no exposure to the United States, Iranian and Russian companies doing business with Syria will not be significantly affected. The main losers could be US partners, who had hoped that a Syrian recovery would aid their own economies and regional integration. Black market activity may proliferate in the Levant as criminal groups help establish alternative mechanisms to supply goods and services. Sanctions will make life more difficult for the average Syrian, restricting economic growth and reconstruction.

Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Papal visit is part of Cuba's international opening

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
State Institution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
International Financial Institution ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Paris Club

Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.

Nuclear deal portends EU-Iran regional security focus

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Eu

Subject Future EU relations with Iran. Significance Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will make his first state visits to Europe during the autumn, to France and Italy. The EU and its member states see July's nuclear deal as opening a new chapter in relations. The EU3 -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- are using the subsequent political momentum to expand bilateral relations and explore new openings for engagement on Middle East security. Impacts Deeper political engagement with the EU widens Iran's partnership options beyond Russia and China. It would also allow Tehran to compete more effectively with the Gulf states for EU attention and resources. If the US Congress rejected the deal, EU sympathies would be with Iran; EU-Iran rapprochement would be hard to reverse. The success of the sanctions-plus-negotiations strategy with Iran could affect other EU sanctions policy discussions, notably on Russia.

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