Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Japan-Philippines defence ties will bolster Manila

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spratly Islands ◽  
Security Relations ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister

Subject The outlook for the growing Japan-Philippines defence partnership. Significance Japan-Philippines naval exercises will be held off Palawan, near the disputed Spratly islands, between June 22 and 26. Japan is fast becoming the Philippines' second-closest security partner after the United States. Security relations and the threat which Japan and the Philippines feel from China's growing maritime assertiveness were the focus of President Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino's state visit to Japan between June 2 and 5, where he met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Impacts Japanese infrastructure investment in the Philippines will bolster Manila's development aims. Japanese (and US) support will spur the Philippines armed forces' modernisation, and their acquisition of defence equipment. A Japan-Philippines military basing deal is possible; if agreed, this would extend Japan's ASEAN-region influence, concerning Beijing.

Added US sanctions on Syria may prove self-defeating

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
Economic Tools

Significance This comes as the US Congress is finalising a bill, the Caesar Act, that would substantially increase the sanctions pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As Washington’s military footprint in the Syrian theatre shrinks, it is reprioritising the use of economic tools. Impacts With no exposure to the United States, Iranian and Russian companies doing business with Syria will not be significantly affected. The main losers could be US partners, who had hoped that a Syrian recovery would aid their own economies and regional integration. Black market activity may proliferate in the Levant as criminal groups help establish alternative mechanisms to supply goods and services. Sanctions will make life more difficult for the average Syrian, restricting economic growth and reconstruction.

South Korea-US alliance will weather Chinese pressure

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Along with the stabbing of the US ambassador to Seoul by a South Korean activist earlier this month, sharp comments from a top US official about Seoul's 'Japan-bashing', and Seoul's potential membership of a new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), this points to new tensions in key regional relationships. Impacts Seoul's foremost challenge, alongside Pyongyang and related, is navigating between its US ally and its neighbour and trade partner, China. Fear of Pyongyang, plus annoyance at Beijing's hectoring, mean that Seoul may agree to host a missile defence battery. Parlous Seoul-Tokyo relations seriously worry Washington, but Park's falling popularity makes it hard to reverse her unbending stance.

Papal visit is part of Cuba's international opening

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
State Institution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
International Financial Institution ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Paris Club

Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.

Budgets may curtail US nuclear forces

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Personnel Costs ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

Subject Upgrading the US nuclear arsenal. Significance The United States is undertaking the most comprehensive modernisation of its nuclear forces since the 1970s and 1980s. Over the next ten years, annual US spending on nuclear weapons is projected to increase from about 15 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars per year to upgrade the three legs of the US nuclear arsenal: land-based missiles, submarine-based missiles and strategic bombers. This recapitalisation is considered necessary to sustain deterrence against growing strategic threats from Russia and China and regional nuclear threats from North Korea, but will entail trade-offs among other military assets far more likely to be used in any conflict. Impacts Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine and eastern Europe will strengthen the hands of pro-nuclear lobbies in Washington. Greater nuclear spending will increase the drive to find savings in military personnel costs. By shifting pensions to retirement savings accounts, it will increase the attractiveness of the military as a mid-career employment option.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

US-Vietnam security ties may trump trade

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Transfers ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vietnamese Diaspora

Subject US-Vietnam relations. Significance Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met US President Donald Trump on May 31 in Washington, during a two-day visit in which he also conferred with the US business community and Vietnamese diaspora. Phuc’s visit is part of Hanoi’s plan to forge a relationship with the new US administration. The prime minister sought the continuance of the Obama-era US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership and to look ahead to the APEC meeting in Da Nang in November, which Trump will attend. Impacts Even without the twelve-member TPP, Vietnam will improve its intellectual property and labour laws. Increased US security support may see more frictions over maritime issues between Beijing and a more confident Hanoi. Trump’s wish to protect US borders will cause Hanoi concern that Vietnamese student numbers in the United States will fall. If so, this could hit knowledge and technology transfers from the United States to Vietnam.

UK effort to engage EU on Russia may falter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance The statement is tougher than expected, and the EU also recalled its Moscow ambassador for consultations. The EU's shift is a win for UK Prime Minister Theresa May as she attempts to build a multilateral consensus rather than relying solely on unilateral retaliation. Impacts EU sectoral and individual sanctions on Russia will be extended in July and September despite reluctance among some members. Talk of blocking Russian natural gas imports is impracticable. The US Congress will pressure the White House to target individuals identified in January 2018 'oligarch list'.

China-Japan cooperation rests on shaky foundations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
Bilateral Cooperation

Subject China-Japan relations. Significance A raft of new bilateral cooperation initiatives is underway following Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's recent visit to China, where he held his first bilateral summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping since the two leaders took office in 2012. Impacts Tokyo views the US relationship as the most important and will avoid anything that would elicit a backlash from Trump. Relations in many areas are back to wary cooperation, as before the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute flared up in 2010. Confrontation between ships in disputed waters will continue, keeping the potential for another crisis alive.

Israel will seek US recompense for Gulf jet sales

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Special Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us

Significance This includes 50 F-35 stealth jets, 18 MQ-9 Reaper drones and thousands of bombs and missiles. The deal was part of the September 15 Emirati-Israeli normalisation agreement and followed consultation, required by law, with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. His late announcement of this led political rivals to accuse him of misleading the Israeli public. Impacts Despite Tehran’s concerns about the deal and Gulf-Israeli ties, the UAE is too vulnerable to risk embarking on hostile action against it. In the long run, Israel could lose some of its regional deterrent capability, if its qualitative advantage becomes less marked. The ‘special relationship’ between Israel and the United States will remain firm despite the deal and the US election result.

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