Election will not tip Moldova towards Russia or the EU

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Internal Struggle ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Imf

Subject Moldova's presidential election. Significance Socialist Party (PSRM) leader Igor Dodon came out of the October 30 presidential election with a nine-point lead on Maia Sandu, a reformist, pro-EU candidate, but not the 50% of the vote he needed to avoid a run-off on November 13. The ballot has been portrayed as a battle to decide whether Moldova aligns itself with Moscow or Europe, but it is more of an internal struggle to gain influence and capture the support of an electorate angry at poor and corrupt governance. Impacts Either candidate will seek IMF and EU funding to prop up the ailing economy. Moscow will seek to exploit a Dodon victory or limit the damage from a Sandu win. Russia would struggle to match the financial incentives offered by the IMF and EU.

Montenegro election affords mandate for pro-EU policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Yugoslav Republic ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Montenegrin strongman’s comfortable win in the presidential election on April 15. Significance Veteran Balkan survivor Milo Djukanovic secured nearly 54% of the votes in the first round, thus avoiding the need for a run-off. He has been the dominant figure in the former Yugoslav republic since the mid-1990s. Still only 56, he looks set to continue to steer Montenegro towards or even into the EU; the target accession date is 2025. Impacts After its Montenegrin setback, Moscow will try to maximise its influence in Serbia and in Bosnia-Hercegovina’s Serb entity Republika Srpska. The EU will take the election result as a rare positive sign these days that the Union is still a pole of attraction. Djukanovic’s win strengthens the position of his party for the municipal elections next month.

Costa Rica election upset leaves stark run-off choice

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Single Issue ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Pool ◽  
Run Off

Subject Costa Rica's presidential election. Significance A shock result in the February 4 election has triggered a run-off between two diametrically opposed candidates of the same name (but not related) -- evangelical politician Fabricio Alvarado Munoz and former Labour Minister Carlos Alvarado Quesada. Neither candidate looked like a realistic prospect until the closing weeks of the campaign, when a controversial ruling on same-sex marriage polarised a substantial section of the electorate on that single issue. With just under two months until the second round, both candidates will now focus on shoring up their support and appealing to a large pool of undecided voters. Impacts A move towards the centre would likely see Alvarado Quesada pick up undecided voters put off by Alvarado Munoz’s evangelical support base. Alvarado Munoz would struggle to remove Costa Rica from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. The Court's headquarters would have to move if Costa Rica did leave its jurisdiction. Whoever wins the run-off, Costa Rica’s relationship with the Court will be debated, potentially undermining its ability to enforce rulings.

Four disintegration risks may threaten the EU’s future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
The Eu

Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.

Environmental policy is shaping the EU’s energy market

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Incentives ◽  
National Level ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

Subject The EU's single market for energy. Significance Climate change targets, the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and direct emissions controls increasingly define the end-destination of the EU’s energy transition towards a single market, while the precise path of travel is determined largely by national-level policies. Differences in national approaches create distortions that hamper the increase in cross-border trade required to make the EU single energy market a reality. Impacts The EU will continue to resist capacity markets and strategic-reserve mechanisms, which create significant market distortions. Cross-border electricity trade requires significant new investment, but it is not clear that the financial incentives exist to support it. The long-term future of gas-fired generation is in doubt owing to increasing competition from low-carbon technologies.

US election lawsuits unlikely to change result

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Us ◽  
Court Intervention ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Vote Counting

Significance However, Republican President Donald Trump is alleging that vote tallies are fraudulent and inaccurate. He is seeking recounts and undertaking lawsuits over alleged vote-counting irregularities. Impacts Two run-off elections in Georgia will determine whether the US Senate stays Republican or is tied 50-50 with the Democrats. Given the type of complaints raised by Trump’s campaign, prospects for a Supreme Court intervention look remote. Controversy over the election result will linger, perhaps until the 2024 presidential election.

Moldovan election run-off too close to call

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance Sandu, the pro-EU, reformist challenger, defied public opinion polls and early results to become the principal beneficiary of a large turnout among Moldovans abroad, almost twice those voting in the first-round 2016 presidential election. As neither scored over 50%, Sandu and Dodon will contest a second round on November 15. Impacts Electoral discourse around Moldova's external orientation will become more pointed. Dodon failed to anticipate a strong showing by a pro-Western and pro-reform diaspora. Practical voter mobilisation on both sides will be complicated by the pandemic.

Spain’s budget majority promises political stability

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Polling will proliferate despite UK 'Brexit' failure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Communication Methods ◽  
The Eu

Subject 'Brexit' polling. Significance On June 23, the pound swung wildly: final polls on whether the United Kingdom should leave the EU ('Brexit') had shown a 4-percentage-point lead for 'Remain', only for the final result to be the opposite. Pollsters have been criticised for their failure to predict both this result and the 2015 UK general election outcome, even as qualitative analysts have also been criticised for missing the results. Impacts The US presidential election is immune from most polling failures, given its hyper-coverage and the discrete decisions of swing states. US Senate and House of Representatives elections are much more difficult to poll, leading to likely market volatility in early November. Changes in communication methods are sparking debates about how a representative sample of the population can be reached best.

Desperation will drive Bosnian Serb leader's choices

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
20Th Anniversary ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Imf

Subject The proposed Bosnian Serb referendum on the state-level judiciary. Significance The Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska (RS) is proposing a referendum challenging the authority of the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) judiciary and Bosnia's weakened international supervisor, the high representative. The initiative comes amid already heightened tensions relating to the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre. Such a referendum would challenge Bosnia's territorial and constitutional sovereignty. Impacts A strongly worded US embassy statement on the referendum has warned of possible legal actions against the RS leadership. The EU reaction has been softer, reflecting diverging US-EU views of the seriousness of the problem and how to resolve it. Failing agreement on a reform programme with the IMF, Bosnia's two entities must turn to private lenders to finance budget deficits.

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