Kazakh leader ponders future but tackles urgent tasks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Subject Political changes in Kazakhstan. Significance President Nursultan Nazarbayev has carried out the largest government reshuffle in two years, promoting Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev to head the cabinet and placing the outgoing prime minister, Karim Massimov, in charge of the security ministry. Nazarbayev's aims are twofold: to bring in fresh faces to tackle grave economic challenges, and to ensure his security services are able to clamp down on a rising terrorism problem. Impacts The government's top priorities will be to avert protests driven by economic conditions and deal with militant threats. Massimov's security measures will be complemented by the religious affairs ministry's scrutiny of radical Islam. Nazarbayev will seek to manage the succession to preserve his political legacy and his family's interests.

Singapore's Lee will call early poll despite risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.

Spain’s Sanchez reboots agenda with cabinet reshuffle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Young People ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.

Ukrainian cabinet faces tough economic conditions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Competing Demands ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Imf

Subject The economic challenges facing the Ukrainian government. Significance Ukraine's new prime minister, Volodymyr Groisman, must manage competing demands, domestic and external. External lenders, principally the IMF, are pressing him to carry out overdue reforms that are likely to bring pain to the average Ukrainian hoping for swift improvements in living standards. As well as the ongoing conflict in the east, structural problems are constraining growth. Impacts A resumption in IMF payments will help the balance of payments and work towards currency stability. Slow and patchy recovery is unlikely to translate into higher wages and incomes. The Groisman government is unlikely to win public approval if conditions improve. Its survival will be at risk if there is no discernable change for the better.

Leadership questions will distract Canada's opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Canada's main opposition parties -- the Conservatives and the NDP -- are entering a period of reconstruction and reinvention in the wake of October's election victory by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, with implications for the government's political room for manoeuvre. Impacts Federal-provincial gridlock and economic concerns from the oil downturn will hinder Canadian climate policy-making. Should poor economic conditions persist despite the government's stimulus programme, the Conservatives could strengthen as a result. National-level scepticism of free trade in many countries will sap momentum in international negotiations, such as for TTIP.

Cambodian rapprochement to continue uneasily, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Official Corruption

Subject Cambodia's 'culture of dialogue'. Significance Interior minister and deputy prime minister Sar Kheng, of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), will meet opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) co-leader Sam Rainsy on October 1 after a similar September 23 meeting. Publicly, such meetings, notionally to discuss forthcoming legislation, characterise the 'culture of dialogue' between the CPP and CNRP. However, the July imprisonment of opposition-linked activists, passage of a controversial civil society law and the August arrest of an opposition senator, raise concerns about the robustness of the rapprochement. Impacts The opposition will focus on sensitive popular issues to gain support, including official corruption and judiciary politicisation. The CPP will use the security forces and judicial apparatus to constrain its opponents. Limitations to civil society freedoms could stoke local unrest over land and human rights.

Erratic policies will increase Turkish economic risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Soft Landing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Financial Environment

Significance The falling lira coincides with signs of policy disagreements and rumours of Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek's resignation. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) want to maintain rapid GDP and employment growth ahead of the 2019 electoral cycle. However, given the unfavourable global financial environment, pro-growth policies could exacerbate lira weakness, high inflation, financial risks and the wide current-account deficit, and eventually cause a sharper slowdown in the economy. Impacts Economic performance will continue to depend largely on external factors including Turkey’s relations with the West and its neighbours. GDP will slow from last year’s extraordinary level but the timing, steepness and disruption caused are less certain. Investor wariness and sliding lira may help a soft landing, sending a warning signal, cutting import demand and increasing external debt.

Russian cabinet reflects safe choices for hard times

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Social Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Hard Times ◽  
The Face ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
High Level

Significance Medvedev and most of the faces in the new cabinet show a high level of continuity, although technocratic figures have replaced several political heavyweights at deputy prime minister level. The overall selection reflects a desire for political stability and careful economic stewardship in the face of domestic and international challenges. Impacts Demands from high-spending ministries will challenge the government's resolve to exert fiscal control. As Putin's term progresses, cabinet changes will be interpreted for signs of a succession process. Any unrest arising from economic problems or unpopular social reforms is likely to lead to the removal of the relevant ministers.

Regional risk will force Jordan to step up security

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Online Activism ◽  
The Media ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Palestinian Population

Significance Jordan is surrounded by conflict and struggling to accommodate over a million Syrian refugees. The economy is faltering and the country’s security services are fully occupied with potential salafi-jihadist threats from without and within. Regional crises in Syria and Israel-Palestine exacerbate rising domestic discontent. Impacts Domestic security measures, including surveillance of online activism and curbs on the media, will be ramped up. Tourism is unlikely to recover in the short term. Efforts will intensify to secure international financial aid, already at record levels. Lack of progress on Israeli-Palestinian peace could alienate Jordan's majority-Palestinian population.

India's manufacturing goals conflict with Modi policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Currency Devaluation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Manufacturing ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
The Government

Significance The ordinance aims to facilitate land acquisition for infrastructure development as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' manufacturing campaign. Launched recently amid a bleak industrial growth scenario, the campaign seeks to make India a global manufacturing hub. However, measures such as the land ordinance are inadequate to realise this as yet largely undefined goal, especially given the tough global economic conditions that have developed since 2008. Impacts There is limited room to boost export competitiveness with currency devaluation due to India's heavy import dependence. The government is likely to dilute labour laws to woo investors, at the expense of its own longer-term vision for manufacturing. The new ordinance could facilitate land acquisition in some states, but the wider infrastructure deficit is an abiding constraint.

Malaysia's Najib faces further test in August

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Development ◽  
State Level ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Speech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Development Goals

Subject The Malaysian cabinet reshuffle's implications. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak is reasserting himself politically amidst the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund controversy. On July 28, he reshuffled his cabinet, removing the deputy prime minister and other officials investigating the affair; and on August 3, he called on the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission to develop tighter controls against slander in online political speech. Impacts Najib will use the reshuffle to reassert his national development goals, but Malaysian economic difficulties may constrain him. Najib will continue moving against critics, potentially attempting to remove state chief ministers perceived as challenging him. A state-level backlash against Najib is possible; policy disruption could follow.

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