Erratic policies will increase Turkish economic risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Soft Landing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Financial Environment

Significance The falling lira coincides with signs of policy disagreements and rumours of Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek's resignation. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) want to maintain rapid GDP and employment growth ahead of the 2019 electoral cycle. However, given the unfavourable global financial environment, pro-growth policies could exacerbate lira weakness, high inflation, financial risks and the wide current-account deficit, and eventually cause a sharper slowdown in the economy. Impacts Economic performance will continue to depend largely on external factors including Turkey’s relations with the West and its neighbours. GDP will slow from last year’s extraordinary level but the timing, steepness and disruption caused are less certain. Investor wariness and sliding lira may help a soft landing, sending a warning signal, cutting import demand and increasing external debt.

Spain’s Sanchez reboots agenda with cabinet reshuffle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Young People ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.

Kazakh leader ponders future but tackles urgent tasks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Subject Political changes in Kazakhstan. Significance President Nursultan Nazarbayev has carried out the largest government reshuffle in two years, promoting Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev to head the cabinet and placing the outgoing prime minister, Karim Massimov, in charge of the security ministry. Nazarbayev's aims are twofold: to bring in fresh faces to tackle grave economic challenges, and to ensure his security services are able to clamp down on a rising terrorism problem. Impacts The government's top priorities will be to avert protests driven by economic conditions and deal with militant threats. Massimov's security measures will be complemented by the religious affairs ministry's scrutiny of radical Islam. Nazarbayev will seek to manage the succession to preserve his political legacy and his family's interests.

Singapore's Lee will call early poll despite risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister

Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.

Cambodian rapprochement to continue uneasily, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Official Corruption

Subject Cambodia's 'culture of dialogue'. Significance Interior minister and deputy prime minister Sar Kheng, of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), will meet opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) co-leader Sam Rainsy on October 1 after a similar September 23 meeting. Publicly, such meetings, notionally to discuss forthcoming legislation, characterise the 'culture of dialogue' between the CPP and CNRP. However, the July imprisonment of opposition-linked activists, passage of a controversial civil society law and the August arrest of an opposition senator, raise concerns about the robustness of the rapprochement. Impacts The opposition will focus on sensitive popular issues to gain support, including official corruption and judiciary politicisation. The CPP will use the security forces and judicial apparatus to constrain its opponents. Limitations to civil society freedoms could stoke local unrest over land and human rights.

Russian cabinet reflects safe choices for hard times

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Social Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Hard Times ◽  
The Face ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
High Level

Significance Medvedev and most of the faces in the new cabinet show a high level of continuity, although technocratic figures have replaced several political heavyweights at deputy prime minister level. The overall selection reflects a desire for political stability and careful economic stewardship in the face of domestic and international challenges. Impacts Demands from high-spending ministries will challenge the government's resolve to exert fiscal control. As Putin's term progresses, cabinet changes will be interpreted for signs of a succession process. Any unrest arising from economic problems or unpopular social reforms is likely to lead to the removal of the relevant ministers.

India’s growth will be fragile

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Current Account

Subject Outlook for India's GDP growth. Significance India’s GDP statistics point to robust growth and its stock market indices suggest a boom. Yet inflation is high, the current account deficit is widening, the rupee has depreciated and investors are increasingly wary. Impacts Prime Minister Narendra Modi will highlight India’s growth figures in campaigning for a second term early next year. Opposition parties will push back on Modi by suggesting India’s growth is largely ‘jobless’. Any sign of an economic downturn prior to the general election could prompt Modi to appeal more to Hindu nationalism to garner support.

Economic downturn may be on the horizon in Ecuador

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Economic challenges. Significance In the first quarter, Ecuador’s economy grew at its weakest pace since the 2016 recession. The government is facing significant challenges in implementing a recently agreed IMF programme, while President Lenin Moreno’s popularity has plummeted following unpopular, but arguably necessary, spending cuts. Impacts Dollar appreciation and a tightening of global financing conditions would weaken Ecuador’s competitiveness. Short-term, the current account deficit will narrow, as rising oil prices support export growth and the slowdown weighs on import demand. Moreno’s diminishing popularity will exacerbate uncertainty around implementation of the IMF programme.

scholarly journals Analysis of myanmar’s macroeconomic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 01022
Author(s):  
Qiming Tang ◽  
Meijuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Import And Export

In recent years, the total GDP of myanmar has been increasing year by year. The year of 2018, the CPI growth rate reached 6.9%, although, the GDP growth rate of myanmar has increased to 6.8%, High economic growth and high inflation coexist. Myanmar’s unemployment rate is at a low level, stable at less than 2 percent. The import and export trade is in deficit. The net inflow of FDI is at a relatively stable low level. But there has been a big increase since 2010.In terms of international balance of payments, since 2012, with a large influx of foreign investment into myanmar’s infrastructure and other industries, the import demand for machinery and equipment has expanded significantly, and myanmar’s current account deficit has significantly expanded.

Malaysia's Najib faces further test in August

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Development ◽  
State Level ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Political Speech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Development Goals

Subject The Malaysian cabinet reshuffle's implications. Significance Prime Minister Najib Razak is reasserting himself politically amidst the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) investment fund controversy. On July 28, he reshuffled his cabinet, removing the deputy prime minister and other officials investigating the affair; and on August 3, he called on the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission to develop tighter controls against slander in online political speech. Impacts Najib will use the reshuffle to reassert his national development goals, but Malaysian economic difficulties may constrain him. Najib will continue moving against critics, potentially attempting to remove state chief ministers perceived as challenging him. A state-level backlash against Najib is possible; policy disruption could follow.

Realities may constrain Russia's naval strategy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Naval Power ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
The Us ◽  
German Newspaper ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russian Naval doctrine Significance The Russian navy's next-generation reconnaissance ships, the Admiral Yury Ivanov-class, are capable of locating gaps in the US Aegis sea-based missile defence system, German newspaper Bild reported on August 6. The first ship was delivered to the fleet on July 26, Russia's Navy Day, at a ceremony attended by President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees Russia's military-industrial sector. On the same day the government also released a revised Maritime Doctrine updating the original 2001 text, (revised slightly in 2011). The government is now developing new maritime legislation on the basis of the doctrine. Impacts The new doctrine more explicitly describes NATO as a threat to Russia than previous published military doctrines. Russia's military has reversed its planned East Asia pivot to reinforce its western and northern fronts with NATO. Russia will remain primarily a regional naval power for at least the next decade.

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