Cambodia opposition protests face tough response

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly

Significance Prime Minister Hun Sen says he is prepared to talk to the opposition, but that this must be in the National Assembly. Impacts If the 2017 and 2018 elections are held fairly, which is unlikely, the CNRP would probably win. Western states would likely tolerate another CPP government; economic sanctions following protest crackdowns are unlikely. Relatively sluggish Cambodian economic reform could later be politically useful to the opposition.

Turkish society will become more Islamic under AKP

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Business Partners ◽  
Turkish Constitution ◽  
Turkish Society

Subject The future of secularism in of Turkey. Significance The speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Ismail Kahraman, provoked uproar on April 25 when he called for secularism to be dropped from the proposed (but as yet unpublished) new constitution. There were instant protests and demonstrations by middle-class opponents and, perhaps more surprisingly, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Both rejected the idea that secularism -- which has featured in the Turkish constitution since 1928 -- should be discarded. Impacts Society's pro-Western orientation is being slowly eroded, and latent hostility to the United States and United Kingdom is growing. Turkey's main secular universities -- Bosphorus (Bogazici) and Middle East Technical -- are under increasing pressure to change. Government preference for Middle Eastern, especially Saudi and Qatari, business partners and investors will continue.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Economic reform will falter with new Turkish cabinet

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Financial Difficulties

Significance Presenting his government's programme on November 25, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu promised to keep his election campaign pledges, complete major infrastructure projects, maintain fiscal stability and implement structural change. Impacts Domestic demand will strengthen in the short term. However, firms in labour intensive sectors may face financial difficulties, and new job creation may be slow. Currency and capital markets are likely to remain volatile and overreact to trends in monetary policy and the current account. Opportunities exist for those investors able to tap into the government's priorities and avoid political risks.

Crisis may spell end of South Korea's Park presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Security Clearance ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political crisis in South Korea. Significance President Park Geun-hye, whose leadership has been characterised foremost by scandals and the failure of every major policy initiative, faces her worst crisis yet. She admitted on October 25 to sharing official documents with Choi Sun-sil -- a long-time associate who has no formal post or security clearance. Park sacked all her senior secretaries on October 28, and the next day prosecutors searched the presidential office, and demonstrators called on Park to resign. Yesterday Choi flew back from Germany, where she had been lying low since July, saying she will co-operate with investigations. To opposition outrage, no move was made to arrest her upon arrival. Impacts The crisis is deeply negative for governance, domestically and abroad, especially if lines of authority in Seoul become contested. Park now has no standing left to press any elements of her fraying economic reform agenda. The National Assembly, normally secondary to the executive branch, will become the main locus of power for the time being. Though the ruling party seeks to distance itself, the scandal boosts the opposition's chances of regaining the presidency. The already flagging push (which Park spearheaded) for greater international pressure on Pyongyang will lose further momentum.

India's Hindu right constrains Modi's economic agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Law

Subject Modi's political compulsions. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government recently indicated that it will no longer pursue radical amendments to land acquisition laws, and will accept the substance of the law passed by the previous Congress administration. This comes after the government's own amendment bill became stuck in parliament due to its lack of an upper house majority and its controversial use of amending executive ordinances. Its response reflects pressure not only from the opposition but also Hindu nationalist cadres. Impacts Economic reform will prove obdurate so long as the BJP lacks an upper house majority. In response, the centre will encourage state governments to pursue liberalisation, in key areas such as land. This will have mixed results: industrialised states (eg, Maharashtra) will be more receptive than poorer states such as West Bengal.

New Sudan cabinet will entrench economic stagnation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Economic Stagnation

Subject Sudan's new cabinet. Significance The prime minister has appointed a new unity government, in accordance with a disputed 'national dialogue' framework completed last year. For the past five years, Sudan has been facing the combined economic pressures of budget cuts, reduced foreign investment, a weakening currency and rising inflation. The former government pushed through some subsidy cuts, despite public protests over the ensuing economic hardship. In January, Washington announced a lifting of economic sanctions on Sudan, raising Khartoum's hopes that it will become easier to attract foreign investment. Impacts Gulf institutions will provide new financing for energy and infrastructure projects. Mining and agriculture opportunities in the north and centre of the country could also attract some new investment. However, major Western companies will remain wary of doing business in Sudan.

Cambodia’s main opposition could split

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Trade Sanctions

Subject Cambodia's banned opposition. Significance The National Assembly last month passed an amendment to a law on political parties, enabling the prime minister to request the king to lift court-imposed bans on politicians. Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won all 125 seats in parliament’s lower house in last July’s election. The Supreme Court in November 2017 dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and gave 118 senior party officials five-year bans from politics. Impacts Indicted CNRP leader Kem Sokha could receive a royal pardon as part of efforts to appease foreign critics. EU trade sanctions will hit Cambodia’s export-oriented garments industry, threatening Hun Sen’s support base. Increasing Western hostility will push Cambodia further into China’s orbit.

Italy’s China policy is becoming more hard-line

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, since then, Rome has become increasingly hawkish over China, a shift which has intensified under Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s period in office. Draghi has already blocked three Chinese acquisitions of Italian firms this year, and stated he will assess Italy’s future participation in the BRI. Impacts Beijing’s decision to impose economic sanctions on Lithuania will put pressure on the EU to adopt a tougher China policy. EU fiscal and monetary support should reduce the appeal of hard-line Eurosceptism in Italy. Italy will be slow to advance projects envisaged under the 2019 MoU, although a future economic downturn could alter the dynamics.

Executive-judiciary tussle could stall Modi's reforms

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Acquisition Reform ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
New Procedures

Subject Tensions between the executive and judiciary -- and their impact on economic policy. Significance Since the 1990s, the Supreme Court has strongly asserted its autonomy and become highly interventionist, especially concerning issues such as environmental protection. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic reform programme will need the Court's approval to be implemented legally. However, his government's relations with the Court are tense and risk further deterioration over the controversy surrounding new procedures for the appointment of judges. Impacts An adverse ruling on ordinances would plunge the land acquisition reform into deeper chaos, stalling infrastructure projects. The Court has not taken anti-business decisions in areas such as retrospective taxation, but such disputes themselves erode confidence. Senior judiciary is unlikely to succeed in resisting pressure for greater transparency and accountability.

Elections are unlikely to help resolve Mali conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Dialogue Process

Significance The move to hold the long-delayed elections is an outcome of the Inclusive National Dialogue that concluded on December 22. The elections, assuming they take place as scheduled, could enhance the domestic and international legitimacy of the National Assembly and restore some confidence among neighbouring states and other stakeholders that political progress is taking place. This will only happen if the elections are not badly marred by violence and a low turnout. Impacts The post-election landscape will give some indication of leading contenders and factions in advance of the 2023 presidential election. Former Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga may consider a presidential bid if his party does well. The dialogue process glossed over territorial administration issues, but they will be key to resolving the conflict.

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