Crisis may spell end of South Korea's Park presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Security Clearance ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political crisis in South Korea. Significance President Park Geun-hye, whose leadership has been characterised foremost by scandals and the failure of every major policy initiative, faces her worst crisis yet. She admitted on October 25 to sharing official documents with Choi Sun-sil -- a long-time associate who has no formal post or security clearance. Park sacked all her senior secretaries on October 28, and the next day prosecutors searched the presidential office, and demonstrators called on Park to resign. Yesterday Choi flew back from Germany, where she had been lying low since July, saying she will co-operate with investigations. To opposition outrage, no move was made to arrest her upon arrival. Impacts The crisis is deeply negative for governance, domestically and abroad, especially if lines of authority in Seoul become contested. Park now has no standing left to press any elements of her fraying economic reform agenda. The National Assembly, normally secondary to the executive branch, will become the main locus of power for the time being. Though the ruling party seeks to distance itself, the scandal boosts the opposition's chances of regaining the presidency. The already flagging push (which Park spearheaded) for greater international pressure on Pyongyang will lose further momentum.

Ruling party poll win leaves Ethiopia at a crossroads

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Notably, the party defied expectations by reportedly winning comfortably in the capital Addis Ababa. Impacts Ethiopia’s government will invoke the outcome to reject international pressure and perceived encroachments on the country’s sovereignty. As electoral calculations fade, Abiy may have greater scope to make concessions on major national and international disputes. Tigray will remain unrepresented at the national level.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Tanzania parties bill will tighten Magufuli’s grip

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
High Court ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Tanzania's political parties bill. Significance On January 14, the High Court denied an opposition petition seeking to prevent a controversial set of amendments to the 2002 Political Parties Act being tabled in Tanzania’s National Assembly. The reforms would give the Registrar of Political Parties considerable powers to interfere in internal party processes. Impacts Stifling dissent will weaken the budget process, enabling more off-budget expenditures and likely populist budgets ahead of 2020 elections. Judicial independence will be tested as cases challenging this legislation or decisions such as the ban on political rallies multiply. Ruling party dissenters will have less room for manoeuvre, leaving them more reliant on any moderating influence party elders may have.

USMCA could influence future trade deals’ focus

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Trade Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Trade Deals

Significance US President Donald Trump has left the Trans-Pacific Partnership and escalated trade frictions with China. The USMCA, by contrast, shows a trade deal renegotiated, the implementation of which will be watched for its implications for other US trade activity, especially with the presidential election coming in November. Impacts COVID-19 disruptions mean some aspects of the USMCA, such as rules of origin, will be delayed. If Trump is re-elected, he will continue his tariff-driven efforts to secure Chinese economic reform for US firms. Biden would aspire to strengthen US-Asian trade ties but would focus first on smoothing trade with existing partners. China and neighbours should assume a Mexican challenge to their production, especially of autos, steel and textiles. Trump will tout the USMCA as evidence his trade reform agenda works.

Maltese ruling party may survive murder scandal

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Government Contracts ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
To Come ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The investigation into the assassination of prominent journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia has taken a dramatic turn with the interrogation of senior Maltese government officials, the arraignment of a prominent business tycoon and the prime minister’s announcement that he will resign in January. Impacts Investigation of Caruana Galizia’s murder and large-scale corruption on government contracts will continue apace with unpredictable results. State institutions’ independence and government corruption will remain in the international spotlight. Malta will continue to come under significant scrutiny in EU institutions. Investigations into lucrative government contracts signed under the Labour administration will gain momentum and others may be opened. The political crisis will prove detrimental to business confidence.

Political realignment jeopardises Jokowi reform agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Major Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Realignment

Significance He initially intended to announce a decision this week. In January Jokowi submitted Budi's nomination to parliament, where nine out of the ten parties endorsed his candidacy. A few days later the popular Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) named Budi a suspect in an investigation dating back to 2010, triggering a public outcry over his appointment. The controversy has ignited a political crisis, realigning major power blocs and putting Jokowi at risk of impeachment. Impacts Jokowi is likely to adopt protectionist policies to recover popular support. He will probably secure parliamentary approval for the revised 2015 budget, redirecting savings from subsidy cuts to infrastructure. The need for foreign participation in infrastructure will persist, but lack of action on corruption will dampen appetite.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

Cambodia opposition protests face tough response

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly

Significance Prime Minister Hun Sen says he is prepared to talk to the opposition, but that this must be in the National Assembly. Impacts If the 2017 and 2018 elections are held fairly, which is unlikely, the CNRP would probably win. Western states would likely tolerate another CPP government; economic sanctions following protest crackdowns are unlikely. Relatively sluggish Cambodian economic reform could later be politically useful to the opposition.

Pension reform could derail France’s Macron

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Innovation Fund ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.

South Korea's leader may be less secure than he looks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The strengths and weaknesses of South Korea's president and ruling party. Significance President Moon Jae-in's approval rating was 79% as of June 14, a record for any South Korean president after a year in office. His left-of-centre ruling Democratic Party (DP) won an unprecedented landslide in nationwide local elections on June 13; it now runs 14 of the 17 provinces and major cities. The party also won eleven of twelve National Assembly by-elections, gaining eight. He now faces no electoral tests until the next parliamentary elections, due in April 2020. Impacts Political party regroupings are likely, with possible mergers consolidating both the left and right. The short-term prospects for inter-Korean engagement appear good. The main risks regarding North Korea are US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and uncertainty over Pyongyang's ultimate aims.

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