Executive-judiciary tussle could stall Modi's reforms

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Acquisition Reform ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
New Procedures

Subject Tensions between the executive and judiciary -- and their impact on economic policy. Significance Since the 1990s, the Supreme Court has strongly asserted its autonomy and become highly interventionist, especially concerning issues such as environmental protection. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic reform programme will need the Court's approval to be implemented legally. However, his government's relations with the Court are tense and risk further deterioration over the controversy surrounding new procedures for the appointment of judges. Impacts An adverse ruling on ordinances would plunge the land acquisition reform into deeper chaos, stalling infrastructure projects. The Court has not taken anti-business decisions in areas such as retrospective taxation, but such disputes themselves erode confidence. Senior judiciary is unlikely to succeed in resisting pressure for greater transparency and accountability.

India's Hindu right constrains Modi's economic agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Law

Subject Modi's political compulsions. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government recently indicated that it will no longer pursue radical amendments to land acquisition laws, and will accept the substance of the law passed by the previous Congress administration. This comes after the government's own amendment bill became stuck in parliament due to its lack of an upper house majority and its controversial use of amending executive ordinances. Its response reflects pressure not only from the opposition but also Hindu nationalist cadres. Impacts Economic reform will prove obdurate so long as the BJP lacks an upper house majority. In response, the centre will encourage state governments to pursue liberalisation, in key areas such as land. This will have mixed results: industrialised states (eg, Maharashtra) will be more receptive than poorer states such as West Bengal.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Economic reform will falter with new Turkish cabinet

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Financial Difficulties

Significance Presenting his government's programme on November 25, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu promised to keep his election campaign pledges, complete major infrastructure projects, maintain fiscal stability and implement structural change. Impacts Domestic demand will strengthen in the short term. However, firms in labour intensive sectors may face financial difficulties, and new job creation may be slow. Currency and capital markets are likely to remain volatile and overreact to trends in monetary policy and the current account. Opportunities exist for those investors able to tap into the government's priorities and avoid political risks.

India's business and corporate climate blunts FDI plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Culture ◽  
Joint Ventures ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Indian Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies

Subject India's corporate culture and its impact on government plans to attract foreign investment. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has made attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) a key plank of its economic policy. Yet the record of foreign companies investing in India, whether through joint ventures or wholly owned subsidiaries, is mixed. Impacts Malfeasance and corruption are an ever-growing risk to joint ventures, underlining the need for foreign firms to invest in due diligence. Modi's pro-business rhetoric will far exceed actual government efforts to curb corporate corruption until his term ends in mid-2019. This will not help reduce foreign companies' potential exposure to long and expensive legal battles. Business environment constraints will impede efforts to attract foreign greenfield and brownfield investment, rather than portfolio capital. This will compound other difficulties of operating in the Indian market, such as land acquisition problems.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

New political front to test Modi policy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Way

Subject Outlook for the Janata Parivar. Significance In mid-April, six leading regional parties merged to form the 'Janata Parivar' (or People's Family, JP) to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. The JP has been provoked, in part, by the way that the BJP is pushing reforms to land acquisition laws despite widespread opposition, and converting its 2014 general election triumph into many regional election victories. Impacts The JP will oppose subsidy cuts and the BJP's Hindu nationalist cultural agenda. The land acquisition amendment may be the most serious casualty of political opposition to Modi. Regional parties will attempt to balance market and welfare interests, highlighting (but not mitigating) rising inequality.

Cambodia opposition protests face tough response

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly

Significance Prime Minister Hun Sen says he is prepared to talk to the opposition, but that this must be in the National Assembly. Impacts If the 2017 and 2018 elections are held fairly, which is unlikely, the CNRP would probably win. Western states would likely tolerate another CPP government; economic sanctions following protest crackdowns are unlikely. Relatively sluggish Cambodian economic reform could later be politically useful to the opposition.

Rival governments risk permanent division of Yemen

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Humanitarian Relief ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Military

Subject Yemen partition prospects. Significance The August 6 launch by the Huthis and loyalists of former President Ali Abdallah Saleh of a joint ruling body to govern Yemen has led to the collapse of peace talks, and an escalation in the conflict with forces aligned to Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The UN has said that the creation of the Supreme Political Council (SPC) violates Security Council resolutions on resolving the conflict. It also brings Yemen a step closer towards the creation of a new central government in Sana'a rivalling Hadi's government based in Aden. Impacts A new UN peace initiative is unlikely to succeed unless there is a major change in the military situation. Prolonged conflict in Yemen will distract Saudi focus and resources from its domestic economic reform programme. Large-scale humanitarian relief and reconstruction will only begin following a (currently unlikely) deal on a unity government.

Caste unrest will help Modi's party retain Dalit vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Caste Politics

Subject Caste politics in India. Significance In a sign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to shape the political agenda, the National Democratic Alliance's candidate Ram Nath Kovind was sworn in as India's 14th president on July 25. With attacks on Dalits (low castes) in the north Indian heartlands of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) surging, the nomination of a Dalit for the presidency was designed to strengthen the party's appeal to the community ahead of state elections. Impacts Support for the main opposition Congress party among Dalits will decline in Gujarat. Beef and leather exports will fall despite the Supreme Court suspending the ban on trading cattle for slaughter. Anti-Muslim violence may increase across the country.

South Asia will see rising polemic over judiciaries

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Supreme Courts ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Public Concerns

Subject Varying power of judiciaries across South Asia. Significance Spats involving supreme courts are increasingly a feature of South Asian politics. The balance of power between the judiciary and other branches of governments varies across the region’s different countries. Impacts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may issue more ordinances, despite the Supreme Court urging limits to their use. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League will register more legal cases against opposition politicians. Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen will face rising international pressure to ensure free and fair elections later this year. Ahead of Pakistan’s elections, Nawaz Sharif’s movement against the judiciary may garner support for the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. Sri Lanka’s new law empowering the chief justice to establish special courts for bribery cases may assuage public concerns over corruption.

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