Saudi Arabia will manage internal jihadist threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group ◽  
Tight Security

Subject Prospects of ISG's expansion into Saudi Arabia. Significance Islamic State group (ISG)'s Saudi affiliate claimed an attack on a mosque in Asir province on August 6. The attack on a mosque used by special forces resulted in 15 fatalities, and represents one of the deadliest terrorist attacks inside the kingdom since the al-Qaida insurgency in the 2000s. The attack signals ISG's emergence as a serious threat to the kingdom's internal security. Impacts Tight security at oil installations will ensure production is unaffected. Both Saudi government and foreign businesses will increase security spending. Failure to contain ISG would damage credibility of new leadership, particularly of the deputy crown prince.

Yemen campaign raises Saudi stability risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group ◽  
At Home

Significance The Saudi-led campaign against the Huthi movement in Yemen looks set to continue well into 2016. At the end of 2015 there were signs that the length and scale of the coalition effort had weakened the Huthis, but not yet to a point where the group is ready for serious negotiations. Impacts The war will enable both al-Qaida and Islamic State group (ISG) to expand in Yemen and potentially threaten Saudi Arabia. The conflict will intensify anti-Shia rhetoric in Saudi Arabia, further straining the loyalty of the Saudi Shia minority. Fiscal pressures at home will increase Saudi Arabia's incentive to draw the conflict to a close. Progress in Yemen could boost the succession prospects of the war's key architect, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Saudi focus on Iran risks stoking regional instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group

Subject Saudi policy in the Middle East. Significance King Salman's accession in January 2015 heralded a major change in foreign policy. The decision-making process was streamlined and placed in the hands of princes from the younger generation of royals, the new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. These changes have created an unprecedented dynamism in Saudi leadership and led to direct interventions in regional crises. Impacts Antagonism towards Tehran will deter cooperation on oil price or production initiatives. It will also constrain the potential for Gulf Arab states to do business with post-sanctions Iran. Failure to show victory in Yemen will cloud Mohammed bin Salman's succession chances, and could see his removal after King Salman's death. Saudi state's sectarian, anti-Iranian rhetoric risks increasing popular support for Islamic State group (ISG). Instability could increase in Lebanon as Saudi Arabia draws back its support.

New Saudi leaders may seek to rein in national guard

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Guard ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The Body ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
State Group

Subject National guard role in Saudi politics and security. Significance The Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) faces a number of questions about its future following the accession of King Salman in January. SANG is headed by Prince Mit'eb bin Abdallah, son of the deceased king and a previous contender for the throne. However, on Salman's accession he was sidelined in favour of new deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman under the new succession and leadership arrangements. A vital part of Saudi Arabia's internal security capabilities, SANG faces new uncertainty at a time when Saudi Arabia is at war with the Huthi movement in Yemen, al-Qaida remains potent, and the kingdom faces external and internal threats from Islamic State group (ISG) fighters. Impacts Financial cuts could weaken SANG's patronage power over key tribes, thereby affecting security and political stability. Reduced arms purchases could damage Saudi-US ties as SANG is a major conduit of US military hardware and cooperation. Efforts by Mohammed bin Salman to exert control over SANG could damage the body and stoke tensions within the Saudi leadership. A strong and effective SANG will improve border security, with wider benefits to regime, national and regional security

Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

North-south divide will ease Syria rebel tensions

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Euphrates Valley ◽  
State Group

Significance Syria's beleaguered mainstream rebel movement suffered numerous territorial losses in 2014 at the hands of Islamic State group (ISG) and the regime. Partly in response to these losses, a wider realignment of rebel alliances is now underway. Rebel groups are shifting away from overambitious schemes to unify under one national umbrella or on an ideological basis, and are moving towards more pragmatic local coalitions that are creating a de facto geographical 'north-south' divide among the rebels. Impacts Any international fightback against ISG requires the overcoming of US and Saudi objections to LF and other Islamist rebels. A nationwide Syrian rebel army will only materialise in the event of a US-led ground campaign against ISG. Recruiting tribal militias will probably prove a cheaper and more practical option. Saudi Arabia will prioritise the rebel scene in the south and Euphrates valley, leaving Qatar and Turkey to dominate the north. Dire military conditions will reinforce the drive for pragmatic cooperation among Damascus rebels.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Saudi-Iran escalation will prolong regional conflicts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
State Group

Significance The protests came in reaction to Saudi Arabia's surprise decision to execute prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, who was imprisoned for his role in anti-government protests in eastern Saudi Arabia in 2011. The escalation between rival regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran comes as efforts intensify to solve proxy conflicts in the region, most notably Syria and Yemen, and to fight the rising threat from the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain will fuel ISG's rise. Iran's hardliners will play on anti-Saudi rhetoric in order to strengthen their position ahead of elections next month. Saudi Arabia may refuse to participate in international talks on Syria later this month.

Islamic State threat looms over security in Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Religious Networks ◽  
State Position ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State threat. Significance Over the last year, Islamic State group (ISG) has expanded its presence in Indonesia. The government estimates that at least 56 Indonesians joined ISG in Iraq and Syria in mid-2014 -- a figure that may have reached 500 by end-2014. Of these, at least 200 are estimated to have returned, with some believed to be planning attacks in Indonesia. Despite the somewhat equivocal stance of national and local authorities on secularism, the threat posed by ISG to security is taken seriously. Impacts Social media and legitimate religious networks are the top two avenues for ISG recruitment in Indonesia and the broader region. Financial institutions, state buildings and tourist destinations are likely targets for terrorist attacks. Inter-regional intelligence cooperation on tackling ISG networks is likely to intensify. South-east Asian countries will seek greater US counterterrorism support. Civil society calls for a clearer state position on secularism will intensify, but they may go unheeded.

Saudi Arabia will check internal Islamic State threat

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Muslim World ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group

Significance His speech came a day after a series of suicide bombings, almost certainly carried out by Islamic State group (ISG)'s local affiliates. The attacks, intended to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan, were largely unsuccessful, but were unusual due to their apparent nationwide coordination, and their targeting of one of Islam's holiest sites, the complex of the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Impacts Continuing ISG attacks will reduce confidence in the economy, setting back the ambitious plan for economic transformation by 2030. However, the group's limited capabilities mean it is unlikely to pose a serious threat to business and the oil sector. The Medina attack is likely to damage ISG's standing among salafi-jihadists, and increase support for Saudi Arabia in the Muslim world.

'Islamic State' attacks set to rise in Saudi Arabia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Islamic State group attacks set to rise

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