Budget deficit may prompt Egypt to return to IMF

Subject Egypt's budget deficit woes. Significance President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has approved the budget for the 2015-16 fiscal year (July-June) after insisting that the deficit target be reduced from 9.9% of GDP to 8.9%. Reducing the budget deficit to a sustainable level over the next three to four years is a key government objective. However, finance ministry efforts to develop new revenue streams and trim expenditure have so far met resistance. Impacts If the government does resort to the IMF, it will face pressure for more resolute measures to cut the deficit and to devalue the pound. After the success of its first international bond issue, the government is likely to return to the markets later this year. The finance ministry wants to introduce VAT for goods and services, but will face pressure from business to limit its scope.

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.


Subject Outlook for the Indian economy and the budget for the April 2016-March 2017 financial year. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has decided to bring forward the annual budget presentation by a month, from the last working day of February to the first. The government claims the move is aimed at revealing well in advance the revenue-raising measures and expenditure allocations to be adopted in the 2017-18 fiscal year starting April 1. Impacts The 2016-17 divestment and privatisation revenue targets are unlikely to be met. Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax is likely to be delayed beyond the finance ministry's July 2017 target. This will further reduce tax collection potential in the next fiscal year.


Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.


Significance He will release a mini-budget on January 23. Revenue collection in the first half of fiscal year 2018/19 (July-June) showed 3.8% annual growth. The government targets a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP for 2018/19, down from 6.6% in 2017/18. Impacts Financial support from allies will shape Pakistan’s diplomacy, Islamabad likely to align more closely with Saudi policy. By avoiding an IMF bailout for now, Pakistan would be able to avoid US pressure during talks with the Fund. The central bank will likely undertake monetary tightening.


Subject Tajikistan's search for loans. Significance The government has successfully issued a bond to finance construction of the costly, high-prestige Roghun hydroelectric scheme. With limited capacity to increase revenue, the government finances budget deficits and new projects with loans and grants from international financial institutions (IFIs) and other foreign sources, notably China. Impacts External debt will mount up through persistent borrowing to cover the budget deficit. Debt servicing is risky given Tajikistan's vulnerability to fluctuating cotton and aluminium prices. Electricity exports are seen as a new foreign currency source but the major new plant is unfinished. Officials may view bond issuance as a 'cost-free' way of funding projects when IFIs shy away.


Subject Egypt's fiscal outlook. Significance The Ministry of Finance has issued figures for budget performance after five months of the 2014-15 fiscal year, which started on July 1, 2014. The deficit is higher than in the previous year, but this is mainly because of the distorting effect of the massive transfusion of Gulf Arab aid after the removal of President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. Other aspects of the accounts are more encouraging, including a rise in non-oil tax revenue and the likelihood that energy subsidies will fall sharply. Impacts The 2014-15 budget deficit is likely to be close to the target of 10% of GDP, assuming a modest level of Gulf aid in the coming months. The relatively strong rate of economic growth will help to moderate the deficit as a percentage of GDP. Increased tax revenue and lower energy subsidy costs will help to moderate the budget deficit. However, it will remain high in absolute terms due to the bloated wage bill and increased interest payments. The government will therefore have to take politically sensitive decisions, either trimming the state labour force or further subsidy cuts.


Significance Meanwhile, the government is under pressure to raise expenditure to help ease the pandemic-related economic crisis. Delhi is reluctant to borrow more, as an increase in public debt could hurt its sovereign rating. Impacts India will struggle to avoid a heavy GDP contraction this fiscal year. In the medium term, some states may try to reclaim the powers of taxation they surrendered through the Goods and Services Tax. The government will count on market liberalisation to spur post-pandemic economic recovery.


Significance This continues the policy preference -- out of line with Poland’s peers -- for indirect taxes on goods and services, including a relatively high value-added tax (VAT) rate. The government says the sugar tax aims to curb rising obesity, but critics suspect it is a new way of raising revenue. Impacts Corporate taxes could be raised as an alternative source of revenue. Left unaddressed, the regressive trend in taxes and rising inequality may create an opening for the leftist Spring and Together parties. If UK taxes rise post-pandemic, the relative fall in disposable income could encourage Polish immigrants to return to Poland.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-265
Author(s):  
Zaleha Othman ◽  
Mohd Fareez Fahmy Nordin ◽  
Muhammad Sadiq

PurposeThis study provides in-depth explanation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) fraud prevention towards sustainability business.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies a qualitative research method, i.e. case study, to address the specific research objective.FindingsThe finding revealed a GST prevention model towards sustainable business. The finding shows that it is pertinent for the government to set preventive strategies in order to retain sustainable income for the government. Two essential dimensions emerged in the findings to support preventive strategies, namely macro- and micro-level measures.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study provide managers, investors and policymakers with evidence to what extent GST fraud could be minimize in order to safeguard government source of revenue and retain sustainable business in a country. As GST is an important source of revenue for the government, it is thus crucial to prevent fraud from occurring.Originality/valuePast studies have primarily focused on GST implementation from the perspective of service tax effectiveness and efficiency. However, this study examined the impact of GST fraud to determine measures that could ensure service tax sustainability using preventive strategies, in turn, introducing to the existing literature on indirect tax.


Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document